Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
703 FXUS65 KLKN 210736 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 AM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1236 AM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025 * Red Flag Warning for most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and this evening * Strong, gusty southwest winds this afternoon into this evening * Downward temperature trend today and Tuesday * A few strong thunderstorms possible near the Nevada/Idaho border each afternoon Tuesday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) Updated at 1236 AM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure will be centered over the Pacific Northwest today, before lifting northward tonight. Southwest wind gusts near 35 mph are expected in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Blowing dust will reduce visibilities at times. A trough of low pressure will be located over Northern California Tuesday through Friday. This trough of low pressure may provide enough atmospheric instablity for isolated thunderstorm development along the Nevada/Idaho border each afternoon Tuesday through Friday. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A downward temperature trend is anticipated today and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees below normal for this time of year. An area of high pressure aloft near Northern Texas will strengthen and build westward this weekend into early next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the Red Flag Warning for the majority of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and this evening. High forecast confidence in strong, gusty southwest winds this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence regarding a downward temperature trend today and Tuesday. Low forecast confidence in a few strong thunderstorms near the Nevada/Idaho border each afternoon Tuesday through Friday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours. Southwesterly wind gusts near 25 knots are expected at KEKO, KWMC, and KTPH this afternoon into this evening. South to southwest winds gusts near 30 knots are anticipated at KELY, KBAM, and KENV this afternoon into this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the majority of Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT this morning until 10 PM PDT this evening due to southwest wind gusts near 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 7 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in White Pine, Northern Nye, and Southern Eureka Counties Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening due to south to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. A few strong thunderstorms are conceivable near the Nevada/Idaho border each afternoon Tuesday through Friday. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT today NVZ424-425-427-437-438-469-470. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92