940
FXUS65 KLKN 171931
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1231 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of northeastern
  Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Today

* Warming trend Monday through Thursday

* Chances for monsoon storms return Friday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge of high pressure will
remain over the southern portions of CONUS. Southerly flow will
push residual monsoon moisture towards northeastern Nevada with a
few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon concentrated in
eastern Elko County. Winds will be light up to 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20-30 mph with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s, however strong gusty erratic winds from thunderstorms up
to 40-50 mph possible. Elevated fire weather conditions across
Humboldt County this afternoon due to elevated winds along with
low relative humidity at 10-15%. Throughout the week, the upper
ridge will stretch into a more longwave trajectory centered over
the southern states. This will cause weather conditions to be a
bit more stable resulting in calmer weather conditions with some
clouds forming as PWAT values remains above 0.6, however
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to the ample mid level
moisture. Chances are very low, but an isolated thunderstorm or
two is possible over eastern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. The upper ridge pattern will also bring a warming
temperature trend throughout the week with probabilities greater
than 90% that every city and town will be above 90s degrees by
Thursday.

By late week and into Friday, models showing increasing confidence the
upper level ridge will strengthen and become more defined with
the center moving back over the four corners area. This pattern
will result in monsoon level moisture to return over Nevada with
increasing chances for isolated/scattered thunderstorms mainly
over eastern Nevada then spreading across all of Nevada over the
weekend. After the weekend, the upper ridge system will shift to
the southeast towards New Mexico and Texas but keep the monsoon
southerly flow over Nevada with continued chances for
isolated/scattered thunderstorms.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for a few strong
thunderstorms over northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Low
confidence for elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County
from wind/RH. High confidence for most stable weather conditions
with warming temperatures trends reaching above 90s degrees by the
end of the week. Moderate confidence to returning monsoon
thunderstorm chances by Friday and over the weekend. Moderate
confidence for continued chances for monsoon thunderstorms to last
into next week. No changes to NBM grids at this time.

&&


.AVIATION...

Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour
period. Ample mid level moisture will result in some cloud
development around FL100. Chance for thunderstorms this afternoon
over northeastern Nevada with the chance of VCSH conditions
reaching near KEKO and KENV. Winds will be light around 10-12 kts
with gusts as high as 20 kts, however outflow from thunderstorms
may bring gusty erratic winds up to 40-50 kts.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions over zone 437 due to winds
reaching up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20 mph with min RH values at
10-15%. Winds across all other zones will be the same with a
little bit stronger gusts up to 20-30 mph, however min RH values
will be near or above 20%. Possible strong thunderstorms this
afternoon across zones 469 and 470 and northern portions of 425.
Weather conditions expected to be more stable throughout the week
with increasing temperatures above 90 degrees by Thursday. Chances
for monsoon thunderstorms return on Friday.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97