871
FXUS65 KLKN 072021
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
121 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * This afternoon there is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms along
   and south of the US-6 corridor

 * Warming trend through Tuesday

 * Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to shift back north
   Sunday with a 10% to 25% chance of precipitation along and
   south of US-50

 * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada Monday
   into mid week


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 118 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday

Weakening upper low over coastal central California will continue
to keep a low 10% to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the US-6 corridor Saturday afternoon and evening. The reason storm
chances have shifted slightly south and have a reduced
probability this afternoon is that the upper ridge located to the
north of the low will become a bit more assertive over Nevada as
subtle height rises overspread the state, shifting the boundary
that has been near an Austin to Eureka to Ely line, (I.E. US-50)
further south into southern Nye and White Pine counties. The best
probability of seeing a storm occur, will be at the far southern
extent of our CWA, being along and south of US-6. With more stable
air filtering in, high temperatures for Saturday as highs range
from the low 80s to low 90s, with westerly winds of 5 MPH to 15
MPH with a few gusts to 25 MPH possible. Lows Saturday into Sunday
will be a touch warmer as well with temperatures dropping into
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Sunday both the upper low and the
upper ridge will begin to drift east and eventually weaken further
as they combine over the Great Basin. This shift will help push
the boundary northward again, allowing mid level moisture to surge
toward US-50, and eventually up to I-80 by late Sunday evening.
For storm and shower chances, a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the
US-50 corridor Sunday afternoon, then by Sunday evening a 10% to
25% chance for showers or a storm will develop northward up to the
I-80 corridor. Even with moisture on the rise, high temperatures
will continue to trickle up as well as highs reach the mid 80s to
mid 90s. Lows also keep pace as temperatures will only fall into
the mid 50s to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds Sunday
will be light out of the north at 5 MPH to 15 MPH. As the boundary
shift north Sunday wind to the south of the boundary will become
southerly to SW at 5 MPH to 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...
A trough of low pressure will progress southeastward across
Southern Nevada Monday, resulting in a 10-20% probability of
showers, mainly in Northern Nevada. An Eastern Pacific trough of
low pressure will approach the coast of Northern California
Tuesday. There should be enough atmospheric instability and
moisture well ahead of this trough of low pressure to support a
20-30% probability of showers and thunderstorms in Northern
Nevada. High temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada both
Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon will be around ten degrees
above normal for this time of year. Here are probabilities of
maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations
in Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, June 10th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 99%
Tonopah - 98%
Elko - 97%
Battle Mountain - 97%
West Wendover - 97%
Carlin - 97%
McDermitt - 90%
Spring Creek - 85%
Eureka - 85%
Ely - 60%

The aforementioned Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will
progress eastward across Northern Nevada Wednesday. This will
result in an increase in rain chances to 30-40% in Northern
Nevada. Cyclonic flow aloft will persist Thursday and Friday.
Slim rain chances will stick around in Northern Elko County
Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will remain above seasonal
values each afternoon Wednesday through next Saturday.


&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the
next 24 hours. Gentle west to northwest breezes are expected this
afternoon, before winds become light and variable this evening.

AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

A 10% to 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible for central Nevada this afternoon and evening for
locations along and south of US-6. For N NV zones conditions will
be quiet with light northerly winds and partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures will be warming through the week with daytime highs
reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s, precipitation chances again shift
back northward Sunday as the upper low to the west finally moves
onshore and through the Silver state, once again chances will be
low but a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible starting in central Nevada, Storm
chances will continue to expand north to include the I-80 corridor
for the afternoon and evening hours Monday through Wednesday.
Winds will gradually shift from northerly to out of the SW as the
boundary moves north, but speed will remain light at 5 MPH to 15
MPH.


&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...98