Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
503 FXUS65 KLKN 250932 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 232 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 * Southerly afternoon breezes across central Nevada with gusts 20 to 30 mph thru next week * Isolated thunderstorms across portions of northern Nevada today and tomorrow afternoon * Period of fair weather next week aside from continued afternoon breezes in central Nevada && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Synoptic pattern defined by a cut off low present along the California coast, which will weaken into an open wave and eject to the northeast today and tomorrow. Concurrently, a robust upper cut off low moves into position over the Gulf of Alaska from the north, reestablishing an upper trof along the west coast. Southwesterly flow will continue over the Great Basin. This set up is indicated to persist for the foreseeable future. Southerly afternoon breezes remain present across central Nevada thru the period with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Winds slightly more modest across northern Nevada. Though an upper perturbation moving thru the region from the Pacific on Wednesday looks to produce stronger south-southwesterly winds. Not anticipating advisory criteria winds at this time however. Isolated to scattered, and mostly dry, thunderstorms are expected in and near Humboldt County this afternoon and evening. Occasional lightning strikes and gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts 45 mph or more can be expected. Thunderstorms again expected Saturday with areal coverage expanding into northwestern Elko County and northern Lander County. Isolated dry storms will be present. Weather will be fair thru next week other than increased winds Wednesday afternoon as noted, and afternoon breezes across central Nevada thru the week. PWATs look sub optimal to produce any precipitation on Wednesday in association with the passing perturbation. Temperatures will reside a few degrees cooler than average thru the weekend, warming to around average next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the short term forecast though exact coverage of thunderstorms slightly uncertain. Otherwise slight shift in the flow pattern places afternoon convection further to the northwest as indicated by numerical model solutions early next week. Though there is uncertainty as to how far to the northwest, consistency in model solutions over the last few days lends confidence to dry weather next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Afternoon winds across all terminals reaching 10-15 kt sustained with gusts reaching up to 20-25 kts this afternoon with the exception of KENV expecting winds around 10 kts. Main concern for today is development of more clouds over northern Nevada with 10-20% probability of thunderstorms near KWMC and KBAM. VCTS has been included in the TAF for KMWC and KBAM this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions persist across fire weather zones 426, 425, and 427 this afternoon due to southerly wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph along with minimum afternoon relative humidity residing around 15% or less. Overall synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged thru next week, and southerly afternoon breezes can be expected across central Nevada thru the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than normal thru the weekend, warming to around normal early next week. Across northern Nevada, winds will be slightly more modest, though main concern is isolated to scattered, mostly dry, thunderstorms this afternoon in and near zone 437 and the northern portion of 424. Storms will generally be situated along and north of I-80. Saturday will see storm coverage expand in areal extent to zones 438, the northern half of 469, and most of 424. Storm modes will be isolated and mostly dry. Period of fair weather next week aside for continued afternoon breezes across central Nevada as noted. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...92