516
FXUS65 KLKN 060741
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1241 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1237 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

* Saturday storm chances shift, with eastern Nevada seeing a 20%
  to 50% of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

* Dry conditions return Sunday and Monday as upper flow sifts to
  the WSW bringing in drier air.

* Tuesday a large upper trough will push in from the NW bringing
  a return of showers and thunderstorms, as well as cooler
  temperatures through late week.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)

Monsoonal flow slowly being displaced eastward as upper flow
pattern re-orients as major player move. The upper ridge which has
been responsible for pulling the monsoonal moisture is shifting
southwest over Baja California. This will shift the upper flow to
a drier WSW flow, forcing the moist monsoonal flow well east, but
not before one last day of thunderstorms and showers for Eastern
Nevada. Saturday storm chances, and the flash flood risk shifts
east with a 20% to 50% chance of storms and showers across eastern
Elko and White Pine counties. Sunday into Monday will be a break
in the active pattern for most with the exception of far NE Elko
county as residual moisture may be enough to trigger a few
isolated mostly dry thunderstorms around the Jackpot area Sunday
afternoon, with Monday seeing quiet conditions. After Monday,
Models have come into agreement with the upper pattern through
late week. Both the GFS and the EC show a large upper level trough
or closed low digging south over the northern half of the west
coast. This trough/closed low will then slowly move across Nevada
before departing early Saturday morning. This will bring several
rounds of showers, a few thunderstorms and cooler temperatures
Next week. Models solutions after Saturday have seen a major
change, gone is the splitting troughs and upper ridge, in favor of
a second trough following on the heals of the prior trough that
will push across NV Sunday bringing more chances for showers and
storms. As for temperatures, highs will start in the upper 70s to
upper 80s Saturday, cooling slowly at first, into the mid 70s to
mid 80s by Monday afternoon. For Tuesday through Saturday Highs
will cool further into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will
not be as cool with clouds on the increase as low range in the
low 50 to mid 60s through Sunday morning. Lows do cool through
Thursday of next week as lows return to the low 40s to low 50s.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected mainly at all terminals through
Saturday evening though precipitation from scattered showers and
thunderstorms will create momentary MVFR and IFR conditions.
Afternoon gusty winds are forecast for KWMC, KELY, and KTPH
terminals Saturday ranging 18-22KTs. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue through Saturday evening at KELY and KENV
while all other terminals will see activity diminish from west to
east by Saturday evening.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Updated model guidance has shower and thunderstorm activity
slowly diminishing over the course of the day Saturday. Storm
activity will focus essentially on northern and eastern NV
including northern portions of fire weather zones 437, and 438 as
well as 469, 470, and 425. Showers and storms will gradually
diminish from southwest to northeast by late afternoon and all
fire weather zones dry out by late Saturday evening.

Afternoon sustained winds over zones 425, 426, and 427 will reach
10-15 mph with gusts near 20 mph but afternoon RH values
collocated with higher wind speeds are borderline fire weather
criteria at best. Sunday, the weather pattern is much quieter save
for some isolated dry thunderstorm activity in the afternoon for
northern portions of fire weather zones 469 and 470. Sunday wind
speeds out of the west over all fire zones will reach 10-15 mph
with gusts near 20 through the afternoon hours.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99