Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
924 FXUS65 KLKN 212201 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 201 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Occasional light showers from persistent Pacific moisture streaming into the northern California coast are expected across northern Nevada through Friday. Active weather will push further south and east into Nevada Friday night through Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday morning. A mix of valley rain and mountain snow is expected with falling snow levels to valley floors Saturday night. Highest snow amounts will remain at higher elevations above 6500 feet but some higher valleys could see up to an inch of snow. An active weather pattern is expected into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night Occasional showers will persist across far northern and northwestern Nevada through Friday as trajectory of atmospheric river is not expected to change much through the next 24 hours. Chances of wetting rain remain highest (up to 60%) across far western Humboldt county through Friday afternoon. There is only a 10% chance of any rainfall in Winnemucca. Widespread cloud cover will limit overall cooling tonight with lows only in the upper 20s in eastern Nevada valleys with 30s across Humboldt county west of US-95. A relative peak in temperatures occurs Friday with highs reaching well into the 50s in many valleys under a warming southwest flow pattern aloft. Broad ridge of high pressure situated over the Rockies region will begin to push eastward. Another mid/upper level low will move into the northeast Pacific allowing the plume of Pacific moisture to realign over the Great Basin region. The Sierra Nevada will ring out most of the moisture into central California but expect expanding rain and higher elevation snow to move farther into Nevada from the west Friday night into Saturday morning. Impacts from snow will be limited Friday night with colder air and lower snow levels holding off until Saturday night. Most locations Friday night will remain above freezing in the lower to mid 30s. Winds will be gusty at times from the south particularly across western Humboldt county Friday with gusts around 25 knots. Winds are expected to remain elevated Friday night under a relatively well mixed boundary layer ahead of a cold front that will push through the area Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. The long term portion of the forecast will feature three distinct atmospheric disturbances impacting Northern and Central Nevada. All three of them will result in the likelihood of precipitation. The first atmospheric disturbance is expected Saturday through Sunday morning. The majority of precipitation associated with this disturbance will fall Saturday. Snow levels should drop to the valley floor Saturday evening. Travel impacts will be minimal as no more than two to three inches of snow is expected over passes and summits along Highway 50. Here are probabilities of one inch or more of snow at select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning: Eureka - 55% Ruth - 50% Ely - 45% McGill - 45% Austin - 40% Lamoille - 30% Wells - 25% Spring Creek - 20% Owyhee - 20% The second atmospheric disturbance will impact Northern and Central Nevada Monday and Monday night, resulting in the likelihood of light precipitation. Precipitation amounts Monday and Monday night should be one tenth of an inch or less in the majority of the service area. The third atmospheric disturbance will impact Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. This disturbance has the potential to produce higher low level snow amounts. Be that as it may, travel impacts will be minor at worst. A cooling trend is expected Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees below normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures each afternoon Monday through next Thursday should remain about five degrees below seasonal values. && .AVIATION...High cloud cover will continue through Friday across much of the state with more dense cloud cover of BKN/OVC across northwestern Nevada. Rain showers are expected to remain north of I-80 with KWMC having the highest chance of any rain at 15% through Friday. VFR conditions will continue with CIG above 6000 feet at all TAFS. Winds will remain primarily from the south across the area with wind gusts up to 20 knots at times. Expanding shower coverage, falling snow levels and CIGs Friday night into SATURDAY from northwestern Nevada into central and eastern Nevada are expected Friday night into Saturday as a cold front pushes through the region. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/87/93