358
FXUS65 KLKN 232236
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
236 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and cold front will continue to bring mainly
valley rain & graupel showers and mountain snow showers this
afternoon. Light snow over some of the elevated mountain road
passes may produce some icy travel conditions. This evening, rain
& snow mix quickly transitioning to snow in the valleys with
locations seeing a few tenths of an inch up to 2 inches of new
snow. The cold front will be to the east of Nevada Sunday so Max
Temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s. A short lived ridge of
high pressure is forecast to bring drier condtions late Sunday
into Monday morning. Next strong and colder system is forecast to
move across central and northern NV late Monday into Tuesday with
the potential for impactful accumulating snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Presently a cold front along the Ruby mountain range will
continue to transition southeastward this evening bring lowering
snow levels to portions of northern Nye and White Pine counties
overnight with snow levels lowering to the valley floors in those
locations before daybreak. As for Humboldt, Elko, Lander, and
Eureka counties snow levels are forecast to drop to valley floor
locations by early evening as the vertical profile cools behind
the cold due to cold advection and normal radiational cooling.
Rain & snow mix late this afternoon and evening will quickly
transitioning to snow in the valleys with ensembles models
suggesting locations to see snowfall amounts from a few tenths of
an inch up to 2 inches of new snow by Sunday morning. Nye and
White Pine counties are forecast to see snow showers into Sunday
morning with locations across Humboldt, Elko, Lander, and Eureka
drying out. There is forecast a brief break due to a short lived
high pressure ridge Sunday night into Monday morning before the
next system and upper level jet bring increase moisture and lift
by Monday afternoon over portions of central Nevada; To include
central and southern Lander and Eureka counties, northern Nye, and
White Pine counties. See details for Monday afternoon through at least
Thanksgiving in the Long Term discussion below.


.LONG TERM...
Quick break in between systems will be ending Monday as POPs
climb back up from 30% to near 60% by Monday evening and over 90%
by Tuesday morning. The main upper system that has been offshore
for much of the last week, will finally be able to push through
the region, lasting through at least Wednesday evening before
exiting across the central Rockies. Model timing differences,
which have plagued prior model cycles, for the most part seem to
be resolved as both the EC and GFS show the first showers arriving
Monday evening across central Nevada, with precipitation reaching
northern NV by Tuesday morning and the main upper trough exiting
into Utah by Wednesday afternoon. The overall plan for system
evolution, really hasnt changed much from previous days in that a
mix of precipitation types will be possible, snow levels will
start at about 7,500 feet Tuesday, dropping to 5,500 feet Tuesday
night into Wednesday before finally dropping to the valley floors
Wednesday afternoon as colder air finally arrives, but also as
precipitation is ending. For the valleys, precipitation will begin
as rain, and will change over to snow during the night Tuesday
into Wednesday, then changing to a winter mix during the day
Wednesday. Should colder air be quicker to filter in Wednesday,
precipitation type may stay as snow with a Trace to 0.5
accumulation on grassy surfaces. However, overall liquid
equivalent storm total precipitation for the Valleys will run
between 0.05 and 0.4. For the passes and roadway summits QPF
will run about 0.25 to 0.75, and a quicker change over to
snowfall Tuesday evening will allow about 1 to 3 of accumulating
snowfall, which could create some adverse driving conditions
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mountain ranges will see mostly
snowfall with amounts running about 4 to 10 by precipitations
end Wednesday. Thanksgiving, and through into the holiday weekend
look to be much quieter as upper level ridging will build in
across the region as a high over low blocking pattern may set up
off the Pacific coast leaving Nevada under a cool, dry northwest
flow regime. Temperatures will trending cooler through the period
as highs start in the upper 30s to upper 40s Monday, highs with
the precipitation and cloud cover will cool into the low 30s to
low 40s through Wednesday, however with NW flow aloft through the
weekend temperatures will remain in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Overnight lows will start in the low 30s to low 40s, dropping into
the single digits to upper teens Thursday morning. Winds will be
light to breezy for the long term as winds will be shifting from
the west to NW at 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible
through Wednesday. For Thanksgiving and into the weekend wind will
be lighter but still out of the NW, but at speeds of 5 MPH to 15
MPH with gusts in the afternoons to about 25 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight
conditions for all terminals Saturday. A upper level storm system
is currently making its way trough Nevada with occasional -SHRA
and -RA affecting KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Precipitation will reach
KTPH and KELY later this evening. Temporary drops to MVFR and even
IFR will be possible should stronger precipitation bands impact a
terminal. Saturday into Sunday a cold front will be moving
through which will allow for a transition to -SHSN overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning for KEKO, KELY and KTPH. Winds
Saturday will be breezy out of the SW at 10 to 25 KT with gusts to
35 KT possible. Winds shift to the NW Sunday morning as the cold
front passes through the region.

KEKO is AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

85/98/98