Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
502 FXUS65 KLKN 031946 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1246 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a 30-35% probability of thunderstorms in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties Thursday afternoon * There is a 20-30% probability of thunderstorms in parts of Central and Northern Nevada Friday afternoon * Warming trend Friday through at least Sunday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1246 PM PDT Tue Jun 3 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An Eastern Pacific area of low pressure will move eastward over Southern California tonight. This cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure as it progresses northeastward across the Desert Southwest Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will dig southward over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain near seasonal values tonight through Wednesday night. Thunderstorm formation Wednesday afternoon should remain south and east of the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms south of US-50 on Thursday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A few degrees warmer for Friday, with highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Showers are also possible in a very similar area, but the atmospheric setup looks very borderline right now and it wouldnt take much to end those showers. Warm and dry for the weekend as upper level ridging looks to take hold over the western United States. Temperatures continue to climb, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s for Sunday, roughly eleven to thirteen degrees above normal. Temperatures remain high to start the week with the majority of the forecast area reaching the 90s. Some low chances for showers or thunderstorms also return to the forecast, but its too early for much confidence in timing or location. Tuesday looks much the same, with temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s and the potential for some isolated showers or thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Largest source of uncertainty is areal coverage and development of thunderstorms both Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. The greatest source of atmospheric instability and moisture could remain south of the forecast area, thereby limiting thunderstorm formation. No deviations from the NBM output. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Gusty afternoon winds around 20KT expected at all terminals except KENV, which could still see short lived gusty winds but not enough for TAF inclusion. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonal temperatures and dry weather will persist this afternoon through at least Thursday morning. A few strong thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening in portions of Central Nevada. A few strong thunderstorms are anticipated in parts of Central and Northern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A warming trend is expected Friday through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be eleven to thirteen degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...87