178
FXUS65 KLKN 081016
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
216 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with temperatures trending warmer through the
weekend. Valley rain and mountain snow is expected over portions
of northern NV early on Monday, with precipitation reaching most
of northern and portions of central NV by Monday evening. Snow
levels lower to most valley floors Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. The flow aloft
transitions from northerly to southwesterly today with sunny
skies, weak winds of 5-10 mph, and temperatures trending a few
degrees warmer. Lows this morning will range from mid teens to mid
20s, with highs this afternoon generally in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Trough energy approaches the west coast on Saturday which
will increase the southwesterly flow over NV, resulting in warmer
temperatures and continued dry conditions. High clouds are
expected to spread in across Humboldt County by Saturday
afternoon, and over most of Elko, Lander, and Eureka Counties by
Saturday night however not expecting any precipitation. The
increased cloud cover in combination with the southwesterly flow
will boost low temperatures up into the 20s to low 30s Saturday
night which will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

An upper level low pressure system located off the Pacific coast
on Sunday will result in southwest or zonal flow allowing
temperatures to remain near or just above normal through Monday.
The trough begins to shift onshore on Monday, bringing our next
significant weather maker with it. Precipitation chances begin in
Humboldt county Monday morning and spread south and east as the
day progresses, covering almost the entire forecast area by
midnight Monday night. Additionally some breezy winds are possible
across much of the state, 15-20 mph and gusting up to 25 mph.
Precipitation continues through Tuesday as the trough passage
continues, leaving only a few lingering showers over mountain tops
by Tuesday night. Precipitation begins as mainly rain on Monday
with snow levels above 7000 feet before dropping after sunset and
ending near 5500 feet for Tuesday. Additionally Tuesday will be
much cooler, with highs in the 40s, as a result of the trough and
associated cold air mass. Snow accumulations have continued to
drop, with a tenth of an inch expected in the valleys and 1-3
inches expected at higher elevations, but QPF values have remained
relatively consistent, with widespread accumulations of a tenth
of an inch and up to half an inch at mountain tops. This likely
indicates a transition to more of a rain event compared to a snow
event.

The trough exits the area and continues its travels to the east on
Wednesday but another trough is on its heels. Wednesday, however,
sees this system off the Oregon/Washington coast and well get a
break from impactful weather as near zonal flow allows daytime
temperatures to return to the upper 40s and 50s. A few scattered
showers are still possible north of I-80 but no measurable
precipitation is expected. The next trough and associated cold
front will begin their trek across our area Thursday morning with
showers once again beginning in Humboldt county and spreading
south and east through Thursday. Models indicate precipitation
chances will still be widespread at the end of the forecast period
on Friday. At this time precipitation accumulation for Thursday
and Friday is minimal, but forecast confidence is low and this
system is likely to evolve significantly before then.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hour period. Winds up to 10 kts for the central Nevada terminals,
light winds everywhere else.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/94/97