271
FXUS65 KLKN 260944
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A strong and slow moving upper level low continues to
bring periods of wind, rain, snow, and a few thunderstorms across
the Silver State through Monday. Additional systems looks to clip
northeast Nevada for Wednesday, with a third system poised to
move through for the weekend, as the end of April and start of May
looks to be an active time for the Silver State.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday and Sunday

Saturday the upper low will be located along the California coast
traveling southeast along the coast through Saturday afternoon
ending up just to the north of Santa Barbara. It is here when the
trough and low finally takes a turn inland and by midnight Sunday
will be over the Owens Valley/southern Sierra Nevada range. For
Nevada, Saturday will be similar to Friday with elevated to strong
for central Nevada as south to southwest winds at 20 MPH to 30
MPH with gusts to 45 MPH, stronger gusts will be possible over the
high elevation of the Snake range and Great Basin National Park.
However the area of peak winds will be much smaller in area
compared to Friday with again eastern White Pine county seeing the
strongest winds. Precipitation chances will slowly increase
through the day Saturday, but will again see a stark divide
between eastern and western Nevada as POPs vary from 10% along the
Utah border, to 80% across far western Lander, Nye, and Humboldt
counties. All modes of precipitation will be possible by Saturday
with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms for eastern
and northern Nevada, with rain/thunder and higher elevation
snowfall for western and central Nevada closer to the upper low
center. Snow levels will start high at about 8500 feet, but with
the low center central Nevada will see snow levels fall to about
6000 feet by Saturday night, and to 7000 feet for White Pine and
the Rubies by midnight. Still daytime highs will have time to
reach the upper 50s to upper 60s Saturday afternoon, and it wont
be until Sunday morning that cooler air starts to filter in across
central Nevada with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Sunday
the upper low will finally move into the Silver State, again this
lows slow motion continues as the low moves NE across Nye, White
Pine, into SE Elko county with the low located near Wendover by
Midnight Monday. Sensible weather Sunday will be much cooler with
highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds will also be weaker
with NE winds at 5 to 15 MPH with gust to 25 MPH across NW Nevada,
and SW winds of 5 to 15 MPH with gust to 25 MPH across east-
central Nevada. Sunday will be a wet day with periods of valley
rain with a few embedded thunderstorms and higher elevation
snowfall, with the mountains of central Nevada and the Rubies
seeing the best snow accumulations. Snow amounts along the range
peaks of the US-50 corridor will average 2 to 8 with the road
summits seeing 1 to 2 of snow Sunday as snow level hover around
6000ft-7000ft. The Ruby Mountains/E Humboldt range will be the big
snow winner with 6 to 18 of new snow Sunday night. Rain amounts
for the State will be good as well with most areas seeing between
0.25 to 0.5 of rain through Sunday. During the over night hours
into Monday morning will need to watch precipitation type as
temperatures drop into the upper 20s to upper 30s, and snow levels
drop to 5000 feet across central Nevada, which may trigger a
change over to snow for may valley locations like Ely, Eureka and
Tonopah.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

A shortwave embedded within the southern extent of a Pacific
Northwest trough will bring a 30-50% chance of light valley rain
and mountain snow to northern Nevada next Tuesday. A gradual
warming trend is then expected to persist early to mid next week
as high pressure strengthens over the western U.S, while a closed
low slowly drifts into the Desert Southwest. Highs will reach into
the upper 60s to lower 70s with overnight lows ranging from the
30s to 40s. Winds will be breezy at times, with gusts up to 25
mph.

By next Friday, uncertainty emerges as cluster analysis and
probabilistic ensemble guidance diverge, with some models
indicating precipitation associated a Pacific Northwest trough
advancing eastward into Nevada, while others suggest a weak, dry
zonal flow over the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals. VFR
dominant, however chances for isolated thunderstorms move over
Nevada during the day from the west, affecting western terminals
first, then eastern terminals a little later. PROB30 for all
terminals of -TSRA conditions. MVFR or lower conditions possible
from passing thunderstorms. Winds light at northern terminals,
however strong gusty winds up to 20 kts possible from downdrafts
of nearby storms possible. Central terminals expected to see
southerly winds of 15-25 kts, gusts 25-35 kts, downdrafts from
thunderstorms may affect wind direction at times.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

98/90/97