Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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310
FXUS65 KLKN 052311
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
311 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions tonight with quiet weather and
temperatures in the teens and 20s. Look for increasing clouds
tomorrow with chances for precipitation increasing, especially in
northern Nevada. Conditions will be much drier in central Nevada
though winds there will be breezy to windy. Quieter weather will
begin to move into the area late Friday night into Saturday, with
cool and dry conditions expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Satellite loop is
showing mostly sunny skies at this time across northern and
central Nevada. Off to the northwest, upper level low pressure is
spinning west off the coast of Oregon. For tonight, expect
relatively quiet conditions with some evening breezes. Overnight
lows will be in the teens and 20s.

By Thursday, moisture will begin to move into portions of north-
central Nevada. A winter weather advisory has been issued for
elevations above 5000 feet for Humboldt county. For other
locations, precipitation will start out as light rain showers and
spread east. Winds will be breezy to locally windy across central
Nevada with lighter winds further north. Highest wind gusts for
Thursday afternoon will be to 35 mph. High temperatures will be in
the 40s and 50s, some 10 to 18 degrees cooler than recent days
during the warm spell. By Thursday night, the aforementioned
closed upper low is forecast to open as the trough axis crosses
into California. Scattered rain and snow showers will continue
through the night with the best chances seen north of I-80.
Snow levels will be 4500 to 5500 feet north of I-80 with heights
6500 and above from US Highway 50 south. Not much in the way of
precipitation is expected in central Nevada with the majority
falling in the north.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

The state finds itself in the midst of a weather system bringing
precipitation to the area by the end of the work week. A large
long wave trough to the west northwest of the CONUS is active and
progressing shortwave after shortwave through the Great Basin.
Higher elevations of Humboldt, Elko, and White Pine counties will
enjoy new accumulations of 4-7 inches with this system while
elevations below 6000 feet see a dusting to an inch as the
associated cold front pushes through Nevada. The bulk of
precipitation will fall before 00z Saturday. In addition to
accumulating precipitation a 120-130KT upper level jet overhead
combined with a tight pressure gradient Friday afternoon will
promote gusty wind conditions for central and northeastern NV.

The weekend sees a drying and cooling trend for the region.
Despite the LW trough continuing to push a pair of shortwaves
through the area Saturday and Monday night the atmosphere overhead
is moisture starved. PW values in the 0.05-0.15 preside over the
region into the next work week until Tuesday afternoon when a more
moisture laden system barrels into the West Coast and Great
Basin. In the meantime, behind Friday`s boundary high temperatures
over the weekend will fall back into the 20s and 30s with
overnight lows plummeting into the teens and low 20s across the
CWA.

The end of the long term period features the aforementioned system
featuring a surface low and associated frontal boundary that will
impact the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Model
disagreement exists on timing and available moisture at this time.
Current projections under slightly below average temperatures
suggest more of a snow event with accumulations Tuesday PM into
Wednesday mainly south of I-80. Depending on timing of frontal
passage afternoon highs on Wednesday will struggle into the low
30s before falling back to single digits and teens for the area
into Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions anticipated at all terminals through
tonight and Thursday morning. Gusty winds continue at all
terminals through Wednesday evening but will diminish after sunset
on Wednesday. Lighter winds will preside over the region Thursday
morning but will be on the increase again for KTPH and KELY
terminals by midday on Thursday. No precipitation is expected
through Thursday morning.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM PST Friday
Humboldt.

&&

$$

86/99/99