Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
310 FXUS65 KLKN 052311 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 311 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions tonight with quiet weather and temperatures in the teens and 20s. Look for increasing clouds tomorrow with chances for precipitation increasing, especially in northern Nevada. Conditions will be much drier in central Nevada though winds there will be breezy to windy. Quieter weather will begin to move into the area late Friday night into Saturday, with cool and dry conditions expected through early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Satellite loop is showing mostly sunny skies at this time across northern and central Nevada. Off to the northwest, upper level low pressure is spinning west off the coast of Oregon. For tonight, expect relatively quiet conditions with some evening breezes. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s. By Thursday, moisture will begin to move into portions of north- central Nevada. A winter weather advisory has been issued for elevations above 5000 feet for Humboldt county. For other locations, precipitation will start out as light rain showers and spread east. Winds will be breezy to locally windy across central Nevada with lighter winds further north. Highest wind gusts for Thursday afternoon will be to 35 mph. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s, some 10 to 18 degrees cooler than recent days during the warm spell. By Thursday night, the aforementioned closed upper low is forecast to open as the trough axis crosses into California. Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through the night with the best chances seen north of I-80. Snow levels will be 4500 to 5500 feet north of I-80 with heights 6500 and above from US Highway 50 south. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected in central Nevada with the majority falling in the north. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday The state finds itself in the midst of a weather system bringing precipitation to the area by the end of the work week. A large long wave trough to the west northwest of the CONUS is active and progressing shortwave after shortwave through the Great Basin. Higher elevations of Humboldt, Elko, and White Pine counties will enjoy new accumulations of 4-7 inches with this system while elevations below 6000 feet see a dusting to an inch as the associated cold front pushes through Nevada. The bulk of precipitation will fall before 00z Saturday. In addition to accumulating precipitation a 120-130KT upper level jet overhead combined with a tight pressure gradient Friday afternoon will promote gusty wind conditions for central and northeastern NV. The weekend sees a drying and cooling trend for the region. Despite the LW trough continuing to push a pair of shortwaves through the area Saturday and Monday night the atmosphere overhead is moisture starved. PW values in the 0.05-0.15 preside over the region into the next work week until Tuesday afternoon when a more moisture laden system barrels into the West Coast and Great Basin. In the meantime, behind Friday`s boundary high temperatures over the weekend will fall back into the 20s and 30s with overnight lows plummeting into the teens and low 20s across the CWA. The end of the long term period features the aforementioned system featuring a surface low and associated frontal boundary that will impact the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Model disagreement exists on timing and available moisture at this time. Current projections under slightly below average temperatures suggest more of a snow event with accumulations Tuesday PM into Wednesday mainly south of I-80. Depending on timing of frontal passage afternoon highs on Wednesday will struggle into the low 30s before falling back to single digits and teens for the area into Thursday morning. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions anticipated at all terminals through tonight and Thursday morning. Gusty winds continue at all terminals through Wednesday evening but will diminish after sunset on Wednesday. Lighter winds will preside over the region Thursday morning but will be on the increase again for KTPH and KELY terminals by midday on Thursday. No precipitation is expected through Thursday morning. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 PM PST Friday Humboldt. && $$ 86/99/99