849
FXUS65 KLKN 080948
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
248 AM PDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * Elevated and critical fire weather conditions today

 * Light precipitation across northern Nevada beginning this
   evening thru Tuesday night

 * Fair weather and warmer temperatures the latter half of the
   week and this weekend

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak surface cold front associated
with a broad upper level trof will move thru the forecast area
this evening from the west-northwest. Elevated south-
southwesterly winds ahead of the front this afternoon will produce
wind gusts 35 to 40 mph. Combined with low afternoon relative
humidity, elevated to critical fire weather condtions will be
present across the forecast area. This has prompted the issuance
of a Red Flag Warning that will begin at 11 AM PDT and run thru
11 PM PDT today for portions of central and eastern Nevada where
winds are expected to be strongest. Frontal boundary brings light
rain showers into northern Nevada this evening with showers
persisting into Tuesday evening. Central Nevada is expected to
remain dry. Valley rainfall accumulations look to be around 0.10
inches or less with between 0.10 and 0.25 inches forecast across
the high terrain. The best chance for a dry thunderstorm or two will
be Tuesday afternoon, focused within Elko County, though PWATs
and instability look rather marginal and cumulus buildups will be
the most likely scenario with the majority of thunderstorm
activity residing to the east in Utah. A weak thunderstorm or two
may also be embedded along the frontal boundary this evening,
though this is low confidence.

Fairer weather will return Wednesday and persist thru the weekend under
a more benign northwesterly flow regime as a broad region of high
pressure resides off the west coast. A warming trend will be in
place thru Friday with temperatures holding steady thru the
weekend. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s by
Friday. The typical afternoon breezes can be expected with winds
from the west- northwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in elevated to
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon ahead of the weak
cold front. Moderate confidence for periods of precipitation
across northern Nevada this evening thru Tuesday evening but low
confidence for thunderstorms. High confidence in fair weather
beginning Wednesday. Opted for various model blends for the PoP
and weather fields as NBM much too bullish. Otherwise only minor
changes to the NBM forecast elsewhere.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail thru tonight. Elevated
south-southwesterly winds present this afternoon at all terminals
with gusts 20KT to 30KT present. Winds ease overnight while
shifting west-northwesterly before increasing again during the day
Tuesday. Potential for BLDU at all terminals this afternoon which
may cause temporary reductions to VIS and create MVFR or IFR
flight conditions. That said, there is not enough confidence to
include BLDU in the TAFs at this time.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Weak surface cold front moving thru from the
west-northwest this evening will produce elevated south-
southwesterly winds this afternoon along and ahead of the front. Gusts
35 to 40 mph will be present. Combined with low afternoon
relative humidity residing around 15% or less, elevated to
critical fire weather condtions are expected. This has prompted the issuance
of a Red Flag Warning that will begin at 11 AM PDT and run thru
11 PM PDT today for fire weather zones 470, 425, 427, and 426. Frontal
boundary also brings light rain showers into northern Nevada this
evening with showers persisting into Tuesday evening. Central
Nevada is expected to remain dry. The valleys will be hard
pressed to observe a wetting rain and rainfall accumulations look
to be around 0.10 inches or less. The high terrain looks to
receive between 0.10 and 0.25 inches. The best chance for a dry
thunderstorm or two will be Tuesday afternoon, focused in and near
fire weather zones 469 and 470. Though PWATs and instability look
rather marginal and cumulus buildups will be the most likely
scenario with the majority of thunderstorm activity residing to
the east in Utah. A weak thunderstorm or two may also be embedded
along the frontal boundary this evening, though this is low
confidence and is not included in the official forecast. Elevated
west- northwesterly winds will be present Tuesday afternoon as
well with gusts 30 to 35 mph expected. Minimum relative humidity
looks to remain around 15% or higher Tuesday afternoon across most
of the forecast area though readings around 15% or lower will
likely be present across the southern half of fire weather zones
425 and 427 as well as zone 426. Elevated fire weather conditions
will most likely be present in and near fire weather zone 425
where the stronger wind gusts will combine with relative humidity
around 15% or less. Winds look to be slightly more modest across
zones 427 and 426.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning in effect from 11 AM through 11 PM PDT Monday
for NVZ425-426-427-470.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92