398
FXUS65 KLKN 221102
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
302 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Period of unsettled weather continues with a frontal
push thru the forecast area expected tonight and tomorrow,
bringing widespread precipitaton. Another push anticipated for
Tuesday with dry and fairer weather expected the latter half of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night

Upper pattern remains relatively unchanged this morning with an
omega block type set up situated over the continental U.S. and
Canada. Long wave trof and deep low pressure system still poised
off shore of the PacNW continues to direct a deep atmospheric
moisture plume into NorCal and the PacNW. Low probability (10%)
for light precipitation across northern Nevada today, north of the
I-80 corridor. Southerly breezes will also be present with gusts
15 to 25 mph. Decreasing heights thru the day as another mid/upper
level perturbation makes its way thru the base of the trof,
redirecting the plume of moisture into central California and
Nevada, and ejecting east into the western U.S. by this evening
as a shortwave. Attendant frontal boundary moves into western
Nevada Friday night, spreading valley rain and mountain snow into
the forecast area. Snow levels begin around 7000 feet, lowering as
the front progresses. Some light valley snow is likely across
portions of northern Elko County before sunrise Saturday with any
accumulations less than an inch. Increased south- southwesterly
winds also expected by tonight with gusts up to 35 mph. Daytime
high temperatures today will be in the 50s with overnight lows in
the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Front continues to progress east Saturday with probability of
precipitation at 70% to 80%. Valley rain and mountain snow is
expected during the day but snow levels will continue to lower as
the front progresses, reaching the valleys Saturday night. Highest
snow accumulations look to be in and near White Pine County based
on the timing of the front. Valley accumulations look to be an
inch or two, with between 2 and 7+ inches indicated for the high
terrain. Winds remain elevated, shifting westerly post frontal,
but ease Saturday night. Daytime high temperatures reside in the
low 40s to low 50s with overnight lows in the mid teens to mid
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

An extended period of unsettled weather through the first half of
the extended forecast period Sunday through Wednesday with quieter
conditions looking to arrive as we close out the week into next
Thursday and Friday. Light snow, with greatest chances for
accumulation during the nighttime periods Sunday through Wednesday
may result in minor travel disruptions.

Long-range ensemble clusters are in decent agreement with broad
longwave troughing continuing to sit just off the West Coast with
gradual progression eastward into the Wednesday time period. A
series of weak shortwave impulses are progged to eject out of the
parent trough just off the West Coast as it gradually
de-amplifies and opens into the parent storm track. This will
bring an extended window for periods of light snow and afternoon
rain/snow/sleet showers with snow levels waffling between 4500 and
6000 feet Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances sit
mostly around 25% on Monday, but increase to around 60% on Tuesday
ahead of the strongest shortwave trough. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, this system on Tuesday into Tuesday night
appears to be the most robust of the set with the greatest chances
for impactful valley snowfall accumulations with a 40-50% chance
for 2-day snowfall totals of an inch or more Tuesday through
Wednesday and 20-30% for 2 or more inches. Afternoon high
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s at most valley locations
should lead to melting on area roadways each afternoon. Best
chances for minor travel disruptions looks to be Wednesday morning
between Eureka and Ely on US 50 and along US 93 between Ely and
Wells and Wendover. Higher amounts of 2-3 inches at many of the
higher passes with generally a 30% chance for 4 or more inches at
many of the passes during this timeframe.

By Thursday and Friday next week, the main trough axis looks to
move to our east into the Rockies and High Plains with northwest
flow on the backside of the trough across most of the West. Some
disagreement in how clean of pass this trough will make as it
moves into the central U.S. with one outcome scenario building a
ridge back into the Great Basin with drier and warmer conditions
and 10% of the solutions continuing light snow across most of
northern and central Nevada. Most likely outcome at this point
looks to be cool and dry conditions with highs in the mid to upper
30.

&&

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. Mid and upper high cloud cover (above 6,000 ft)
will continue through today across much of the state. Rain showers
are expected to remain north of I-80 with KWMC having the highest
chance of any rain at 15%. Winds will remain primarily from the
south across the area with wind gusts up to 25 knots at KELY.

Expanding shower coverage, falling snow levels and CIGs Friday
night into Saturday from northwestern Nevada into central and
eastern Nevada are expected Friday night into Saturday as a cold
front pushes through the region.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/84/90