369
FXUS65 KLKN 020827
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
127 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 123 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

* Active pattern continues for far northern Nevada.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for northern
  Elko, and northern Humboldt counties for Saturday.

* Breezy winds and low relative humidity will keep elevated fire
  weather conditions for central Nevada through next week.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for northern
  Elko, and northern Humboldt counties for Monday.


&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper pattern finally on the move as
strong upper level ridge swing SW into AZ, and the persistent
upper trough lifts northeast into Montana. However, not before
giving northern portions of Elko and Humboldt counties a low 10%
to 20% chance at another round of mostly dry thunderstorms. The
main hazards of any storms that do form will again be the
combination of gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes. The good
news is that outside of storms, winds will be below critical
levels, keeping fire weather concerns the elevated for the
weekend. Sunday still looks to be a dry, quiet day for most, as
the upper pattern reorganizes but a widely isolated storm or two
cant be ruled out along the ID/OR border. The upper ridge is
forecast to split, with the southern piece shifting SW over
Arizona, While the northern stream ridge will move east into
Ontario, Canada. This will allow westerly flow to resume over the
northern US, with a new upper trough pushing across the Pacific NW
for Monday of next week. Models are still uncertainty in
location, and strength of this feature, as the latest runs have
shifted south into northern Nevada Monday afternoon. So have opted
to introduce a 10% to 20% probability for a few isolated
thunderstorms at this time, mid level moisture looks again to be
meager as the upper trough wont have any monsoonal moisture to
work with. Models agreement still lacking after Wednesday of next
week as both the GFS and the ECMWF flip back on forth favoring
solutions the other had the previous day. As such models either
favor another week trough clipping northern NV, or a strong upper
level ridging developing over the great basin through the end of
next week. Temperatures for the period look to be well constrained
thanks to afternoon convective build-ups, even as storm chances
dwindle, keeping daytime highs in check. Highs look to range from
the upper 80s to upper 90s across Nevada with day to day variation
depending on cloud development. For overnight lows look for
temperatures each night to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high confidence in a low 10% to 30% chance for isolated,
mostly dry thunderstorms across northern Humboldt, and Elko
Counties for Saturday afternoon, although exact coverage of storms
remains uncertain.

There is moderate confidence of elevated fire weather conditions,
with breezy winds and low afternoon surface humidity levels,
across central and northern Nevada for the forecast period.

There is low confidence in the development of a low 10% to 20%
chance for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms across northern
Elko, and Humboldt Counties for Monday afternoon.

There is low confidence in the extended forecast after the middle
of next week as models continue to show high uncertainty in the
upper level pattern.


&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Sunday for all
terminals, light to breezy W-SW winds of 10KT to 15KT with gusts
to 25KT during the afternoon hours. A Low 10% to 20% chance for
VCTS will be possible for KBAM, KEKO, for Saturday afternoon but
chances are to low to mention in TAF. KELY, KWMC, KENV and KTPH
will see some convective build-up during the afternoons, but will
remain dry.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated dry thunderstorms is expected to retreat northward this
afternoon and evening, becoming confined to zones 437, 438, 469
and 470. By Sunday, widespread thunderstorm development is not
expected, as more favorable moisture profiles shift north of the
Nevada state line.

Elevated fire weather conditions persist across northern and
central Nevada Sunday and Monday, with south to west wind gusts
ranging from 20 to 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values
near or below 15%.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...90