324
FXUS65 KLKN 242029
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1229 PM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada
Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, resulting in periods
of precipitation. Most of this precipitation will fall Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Snow levels will start at around 6,000 feet
Monday afternoon. Snow levels will drop Monday night and Tuesday
morning, eventually reaching the valley floor Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night
An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will approach the west
coast of the United States tonight. Precipitation ahead of this
trough of low pressure should start to overspread Northern and
Central Nevada Monday afternoon. Periods of precipitation are
expected Monday night. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range, starting at 4 PM PST
Monday afternoon. Snow levels will begin at around 6,000 feet
Monday afternoon. Snow levels will start to drop Monday night,
but should remain above valley floor until Tuesday. The bulk of
precipitation associated with the aforementioned atmospheric
disturbance will fall outside of the short term portion of the
forecast. Here are probabilities of an inch of snow or more for
select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Monday afternoon
and Monday night:

Ruby Lake - 51%
Ruby Valley - 47%
Jarbidge - 45%
Wild Horse - 41%
Austin - 39%
Ely - 29%
Spring Creek - 24%
Elko - 22%
Wells - 22%
Owyhee - 22%

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday
The main forecast question for Tuesday and Wednesday still
remains snow levels as there remains a large gap between the NBM
and the GFS/ECMWF. Which is amusing as the EC, GFS and the CMC all
go into the NBM. In order to help get a better overall picture,
there has been a significant cold bias in the EC and GFS runs as
of late which has favored more snow accumulations across Nevada
with this system. Also looking at each ensemble package with
respect to Track and strength of the system, solutions dont
advect colder air into the region, in fact heights do not drop
below 552dm with thicknesses around 546dm, which is rather
marginal for snow production. Rather it generates cooling aloft
dynamically which while possible, the amount of cold generated and
mixed down seems to be abnormally large for a system whose air
mass has been modifying over the NW Pacific for the last week. So
in light of these mixed messages from the models, the overall plan
for system evolution, really hasnt changed much from previous
days in that a mix of precipitation types will be possible, snow
levels will start at about 7,500 feet Tuesday, dropping to 5,500
feet Tuesday night into Wednesday before finally dropping to the
valley floors Wednesday afternoon as colder air finally arrives,
but also as precipitation is ending. For the valleys,
precipitation will begin as rain, and will change over to snow
during the night Tuesday into Wednesday, then changing to a winter
mix during the day Wednesday. Should colder air be quicker to
filter in Wednesday, precipitation type may stay as snow with a
Trace to 1 accumulation on grassy surfaces. However, overall
liquid equivalent storm total precipitation for the Valleys will
run between 0.05 and 0.4. For the passes and roadway summits QPF
will run about 0.25 to 0.75, and a quicker change over to
snowfall Tuesday evening will allow about 1 to 3 of accumulating
snowfall, which could create some adverse driving conditions
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mountain ranges will see mostly
snowfall with amounts running about 4 to 10 by precipitations
end Wednesday in light of this a Winter Storm Watch will be issued
from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday for the Ruby Mountains, East
Humboldt range with this forecast package (Sunday). Thanksgiving,
and through into the holiday weekend looks to be much quieter as
upper level ridging will build in across the region as a high over
low blocking pattern may set up off the Pacific coast leaving
Nevada under a cool, dry northwest flow regime. Temperatures range
in the low 30s to low 40s through Wednesday, however with NW flow
aloft through the weekend temperatures will remain in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. Overnight lows will start in the upper 20s to upper
30s, dropping into the single digits to upper teens by Thursday
morning. Winds will be light to breezy for the long term as winds
will be shifting from the west to NW at 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up
to 35 MPH possible through Wednesday. For Thanksgiving and into
the weekend wind will be lighter but still out of the NW, but at
speeds of 5 MPH to 15 MPH with gusts in the afternoons to about 25
MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast to be the primary flight conditions
for all terminals through Monday afternoon along with light
westerly winds of 5KT to 10 KT with gusts up to 20 KT. CIGs will
begin to lower Monday afternoon as the next upper level trough
will approach NV Monday evening with light -SHRA possible for
KTPH and KELY late Monday into Tuesday morning.

KEKO is AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range in Elko.

&&

$$

87/98/98