027
FXUS65 KLKN 240745
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1245 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * Isolated, mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in parts of Northern
   and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening

 * A warming trend is expected this weekend

 * Isolated, mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in Northern Nevada
   Monday afternoon into Monday evening

 * Not as warm Memorial Day and Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 1133 PM PDT Fri May 23 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure
will move eastward into Southern Nevada today. This atmospheric
disturbance should provide enough lift for an isolated mix of wet
and dry thunderstorm development in portions of Northern and
Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these
thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards
will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning strikes. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select
locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 11 AM PDT until 5 PM
PDT Saturday, May 24th, 2025:

Ely - 20%
McGill - 20%
Ruby Lake - 20%
Ruth - 19%
Lund - 18%
Preston - 18%
Eureka - 16%
Austin - 13%
Lamoille - 13%
Spring Creek - 12%

The aforementioned cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of
low pressure as it progress eastward into Utah tonight. A ridge of
high pressure will build northward over the Silver State Sunday.
High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday
afternoon will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time
of year. The ridge of high pressure over the Silver State will
move eastward into Utah Sunday night.

Meridional upper level flow across the western CONUS early next
week pushes a shortwave across the Great Basin Monday evening into
Tuesday. The parent low associated with the wave stays north of
the region while the weak wave transitions from along the northern
CA coast to southwest of the area by Tuesday afternoon.

Biggest impacts from the this meandering wave will be convective
chances increasing across northeast and eastern NV Monday afternoon.
200-300 J/kg of CAPE and negative LI values with meager PW values
around 0.6 inches spells dry convection for Elko and White Pine
counties Monday evening.

Behind the wave high pressure builds over the Great Basin Tuesday
and Wednesday with northerly flow in the eastern flank of the
ridge over the state Wednesday morning. From here model
disagreement exists over the placement of a low pressure system
that drops south and impacts the region. GFS has the system
plummeting from the northern US border south into eastern NV
Wednesday evening ramping up convective chances again across
eastern NV. GFS guidance has the low exhibiting "cutoff" behavior
and meandering into southern NV through Friday keeping convective
chances over eastern NV each afternoon. ECMWF and ensemble
guidance however keeps the ridge in place through the weekend
keeping the area dry but continuing to warm up temperatures to
summer-like levels.

Model guidance does agree on a stronger low pressure system over
the Pacific that will be set up to push into SoCal and potentially
NV beyond the long term period next weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence is high for
today and tonight. Increasing concerns for the potential of
isolated, dry thunderstorms in White Pine County Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening. High forecast confidence Monday and Tuesday.
After that time, forecast confidence decreases due to varying
computer model output, which is part of the NBM. No changes were
made to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours. A low pressure system will move across the region, bringing
increasing cloud cover (with CIGs from FL100 to FL250) and a
10-20% chance of showers (mainly virga) and dry thunderstorms
across central Nevada Saturday afternoon. VCTS was added to KTPH
and KELY between 19Z Sat and 03Z Sun. Winds will generally be from
the north-northeast at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25 kts.
However, variable winds with gusts up to 30 kts are possible due
to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected in
portions of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this
evening. A few of these thunderstorms may be strong. The primary
thunderstorms hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous
cloud to ground lightning strikes. A warming trend is expected
this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, maximum temperatures will be
six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. An
isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated in
Northern Nevada Monday afternoon into Monday evening. High
temperatures will remain above seasonal values Monday through next
Saturday, with noticeably warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...87