Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
101 FXUS65 KLKN 042136 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 136 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM PST Tue Nov 4 2025 * A storm system will impact Northern Nevada Wednesday resulting in windy conditions and light precipitation * Winds will be strong enough for a Wind Advisory issues for much of northern and central NV Wednesday morning through the evening * High temperatures behind the storm system and associated cold front will back into the 50s for the rest of the week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level trough sporting a steep height gradient will move ashore over the west coast this evening and encroach its axis over northern NV by Wednesday AM. This will tighten the pressure gradient significantly overhead as flow in the profile overhead shifts southwesterly. Wind speeds will increase by daybreak tomorrow morning and sustained winds will peark near 30-35 mph with gusts near 45 mph forecasted. Strong winds have prompted a Wind Advisory for forecast zones along and south of I-80 except zone 33 through 7PM PST Wednesday night. Humboldt and northern Elko Counties will keep a Wind Advisory in effect until 10PM PST as winds along the border stay strong later in the evening. While the system will pack a punch in terms of winds and eventually lowered temperatures, precipitation with the system will be tough to come by. Most available moisture with the trough gets scoured by the Sierras though model guidance keeps around half an inch of PWAT over the area Wednesday. Lack of forcing appears to be the main culprit as frontogenesis is modest at best save for northeastern Elko County Wednesday PM. Scattered shower activity that looks to be boundary associated will yield a few hundredth to a tenth of an inch for valleys north of I-80. Best accumulations are forecast to be 2-3 inches of snowfall for highest peaks and ridges of northern NV. Behind the system and associated weak cold front temperatures will fall back into the 50s for the rest of the work week. Zonal flow settles into the region with fair weather conditions. A building ridge will increase temperatures Sunday and into early next week. Models are in modest agreement of an HPC drifting over the Great Basin by Veterans Day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high in a storm system tightening the gradient over NV on Wednesday enhancing strong southwesterly flow. NBM90 was added to the wind grids to juice velocity a bit as NBM typically underdoes wind speed. This helped match better with neighboring offices. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through Wednesday afternoon. Even as a storm system skirts the area to the north CIGs will remain well above MVFR criteria. Precipitation is not anticipated through mid-day on Wednesday at any terminals. Afternoon wind gusts Tuesday evening at KELY and KTPH will subside at KTPH but steadily increase from 25 to 30KTs through the evening. Tomorrow gusty southwesterly winds are expected at all NV terminals ranging 35-40KTs from mid-morning through Wednesday afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ030-031. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday NVZ034>041. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99