Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
983 FXUS65 KLKN 052117 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 217 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy conditions mainly across central Nevada this afternoon and early evening * At or just below average temperatures will continue through the next several days * Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Nevada remains under southwesterly flow aloft as a large upper level trough over coastal Oregon tried to push against the subtropical upper level ridge over the southern plains. This upper trough will slowly push through the Pacific NW and into the inter-mountain west through Wednesday. The main impact from this trough will be from the winds as the pressure gradient helps drive breezy conditions across eastern and central Nevada as SW winds rise during the afternoons to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Winds father west will be slightly lighter at 10 to 20 MPH with gust up to 30 MPH possible. The next impacts from this system will be to keep temperature on the cool side through Monday with high in the mid to upper 70s, before a quick warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday get temperatures back into the upper 80s for Late week into the start of the following weekend as the upper trough departs and the upper ridge tries to shift back west. Models which were once hopeful for precipitation thanks to moisture from Hurricane Marie which will be well of shore of the Baja Peninsula, but in line with the SW flow aloft. Have kept trending drier as any moisture from Marie looks to stay across southern Nevada this week. As for the trough, the best moisture looks to stay north into Oregon and Idaho. Overall that leave a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday across far northern Nevada. While another low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible for SE White Pine county with a few storms reaching as far north as the Ruby Mountains. Chances for storms and showers looks to remain between 10% and 30% mainly during the afternoon and evening hours Sunday. The next chance of showers or storms looks to be Thursday through Friday as more moisture from Marie rides along the periphery of the upper ridge which will be building back toward the southwest at this time. After Friday Model diverge significantly as the upper pattern looks to return to a typical summer type upper ridging, or the possibility of a second upper trough pushing through the Pacific NW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence cooler than normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday. There is high confidence in a quick warming trend Wednesday through Friday as the upper trough lifts NE away from Nevada. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for northern Humboldt and northern Elko Counties Sunday afternoon. There is low confidence for the long range forecast as model solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern after Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Sunday evening. Upper trough to our northwest will act to tighten the pressure gradient through Monday as southwest winds for KTPH, KELY, KENV, and KEKO will be breezy at 15 to 25 KT with gust up to 35 KT possible. KWMC, and KBAM will sight slightly lighter W to SW winds at 10 to 20 KT with a few gust up to 30 KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather conditions look to remain low to Elevate for the next several days as cool temperatures and higher RH values offset breezy W to SW winds. An upper level storm system will push through the Pacific NW Through Tuesday will bring stronger SW winds of 10 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH through Monday, but will keep cooler than normal temperatures and bring a low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening for far northern and eastern Nevada. After Wednesday the upper trough lifts NE allowing for warmer temperatures to quickly reach back above normal into the upper 80s Wednesday through Friday, however another low chance for showers and storms will accompany the warm up for Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98