701
FXUS65 KLKN 302115
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
215 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 214 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

* Active pattern continues for northern and western Nevada.

* Isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms possible
  for western and central Humboldt County, as well as far northern
  Elko County through Thursday.

* Isolated, mostly dry thunderstorm chances for eastern Humboldt,
  NW Lander, western and central Elko Counties through Thursday.

* Low chances for isolated, mostly dry thunderstorms for northern
  Elko county for the weekend.

* Strong winds and low relative humidity will bring red flag
  conditions to FWZ 425 this afternoon.

&&


.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

No updates are planned for this forecast package.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper pattern still remains blocked as
large upper level ridge remains parked over the central US with
the ridge axis extending northward to Alberta Canada. Meanwhile
the highly tilted upper trough over the northern Sierra is trying
to drift NE into Oregon and Idaho with little success until late
week. This will keep a low 10% to 40% chance for Isolated to
scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada
each afternoon through Saturday. However storm chances will be
higher for Wednesday and Thursday, than Friday and Saturday as the
upper trough drifts NE. For Wednesday afternoon the best storm
coverage will be across western Lander north into Humboldt, and
far western Elko counties. Storms will be a mix of wet and dry
with gusty outflow winds and lightning being the main hazards.
However, western and central Humboldt will have the best
probability of seeing wetting storms, with storm mode favoring
more dry thunder the farther east you go. Aside from the storms,
central NV will see winds increase a bit Wednesday afternoon,
mainly across White Pine County, as SW winds of 15 to 25mph with
gusts up to 35mph overspread the area, this will drop RH below
10%, creating critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday
afternoon, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for far eastern Nye
and White Pine counties. Thursday will see the best coverage for
storm chances for northern Nevada as the upper trough axis extends
across the NV/ID/OR border allowing better mid level moisture to
spread farther east into Elko county, again leading for a 10% to
40% chance for isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms. Friday and Saturday storm chances fall to 10% to
20% but storm modes will favor more dry thunderstorms as mid level
moisture shifts into ID. Sunday will be a day of transition as
the upper ridge shifts SW over Arizona, this will allow the
pattern to reset with a new upper trough digging into northern
California which will re-invigorate thunderstorm chances for NW
Nevada Monday and Tuesday, although this upper trough looks to be
out of the area by Wednesday of next week. Temperatures for the
period look to be well constrained thanks to afternoon convective
build-ups and a few storms. Highs look to range from the upper 80s
to upper 90s across Nevada with day to day variation depending on
cloud development. For overnight lows look for temperatures each
night to fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence remains for the
short term forecast for the low 10% to 40% probability of
isolated to scattered mix of wet and dry thunderstorms for
northern Nevada Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Although the
exact coverage of thunderstorms, as well as the ratio of wet to
dry storm mode remains slightly uncertain.

There is high confidence for the development of critical fire
weather conditions for portions of eastern Nye and White Pine
counties Wednesday afternoon, moderate confidence of elevated fire
weather concerns elsewhere.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions forecast to persist through Thursday for all
terminals, light to breezy winds of 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT
during the afternoon hours. Low 10% to 40% chance for VCTS
Wednesday afternoon for KWMC, and KBAM, with VCTS probabilities
expanding to include KEKO and perhaps KENV for Thursday afternoon.
KELY and KTPH will see breezy SW winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts
up to 30KT possible, as well as some convective build-up during
the afternoons, but will remain dry.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions continue to persist across
central Nevada this afternoon due to southerly wind gusts between
20 and 30 mph along with minimum afternoon relative humidity
residing in the single digits. Gusts 30 to 35 mph expected across
most of zone 425, especially the eastern half of the zone, which
has prompted the issuance of a red flag warning for this afternoon
and evening. Afternoon breezes can be expected across central
Nevada thru the weekend. Across northern Nevada, main concern will
be for continued afternoon thunderstorms. Storms this afternoon
will again be focused in and near zone 437 with isolated to
scattered activity and a mix of wet and dry storm modes. Isolated
dry thunderstorms are forecast further east and south with areal
extent again covering most of zone 438, 424 and the northern half
of 469. Thunderstorm activity indicated to shift east the latter
half of the week. Beginning Thursday thunderstorms will be
situated more broadly across northern Nevada with storms covering
much of Elko County as well. Numerical models have been consistent
the last two or three days with spreading thunderstorms as far
south as northern Nye County, including most of zones 425 and 427.
Progs maintain borderline atmospheric moisture values however and
the feeling is that cumulus buildups and virga will be the main
fare across central Nevada zones Thursday, though an occasional
lightning strike cannot be completely ruled out. Therefore will
maintain isolated dry thunderstorms in the forecast across most of
zones 427 and 425. Numerical models favoring storms retreating to
northern Nevada Friday afternoon but will continue to express low
confidence in the exact areal coverage of storms Friday and
beyond.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ425.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...84