181
FXUS65 KLKN 172059
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
159 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 147 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

* An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms anticipated in most
  of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening

* Isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms expected in Eastern
  Nevada each afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday

* Scattered wet thunderstorms some producing heavy rainfall
  expected over southern half of White Pine and northeastern Nye
  counties

* Elevated fire weather conditions in the majority of Northern and
  Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM PDT Thu Jul 17 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure
near the Baja Peninsula will begin to move northward today. This
will pull atmospheric moisture northward into the Silver State. As
a result, isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening
should be a mix of wet and dry storms. The cyclone aloft will be
centered over Southern California Friday. Isolated to scattered,
primarily wet, thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Here are probabilities of
thunderstorms for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada
on Friday, July 18th, 2025:

Lund - 42%
Great Basin National Park - 39%
Ely - 37%
Duckwater - 36%
Eureka - 27%
Jackpot - 26%
Manhattan - 26%
Currie - 25%
Tonopah - 23%
Wells - 20%

Updated grids to include thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, which
is consistent with WPC marginal outlook area for excessive
rainfall. This comes with a northward advection of above normal
precipitable water amounts into southern and central sections of
Nevada to include the southern half of White Pine and Northeastern
Nye counties.

The upper-level area of low pressure should open up into a trough
of low pressure Saturday. It looks as if Saturday will be the last
day for potential thunderstorm formation in the service area.
Northern and Central Nevada will be sandwiched between broad,
cyclonic flow in the Pacific Northwest and high pressure over the
Great Plains. This will increase the pressure gradient causing
gusty south to southwest winds Sunday afternoon and Monday
afternoon. The cyclonic flow over the Pacific Northwest will lift
northward Tuesday through next Thursday. High temperatures each
afternoon Sunday through next Thursday will be near normal for
this time of year.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Update: There is a 5-15% chance that some of the thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening over the southern half of White Pine
and northeastern Nye counties could potentially have excessive
rainfall with rates as high as 1.5 " per hour.

Moderate forecast confidence regarding an isolated mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms in the majority of Northern and Central Nevada
this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence in
isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada each
afternoon and evening Friday and Saturday. Moderate forecast
confidence regarding elevated fire weather conditions in most of
Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening Sunday and
Monday. Expanded the area of dry thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening, otherwise no deviations from the NBM model output.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be from the S-SW with gusts up to 25
kts.

Increasing moisture combined with weak instability will bring a
15-30% chance of thunderstorms across portions of northern Nevada
Thursday afternoon and evening, including KEKO and KENV. CIGs
will range from FL100 to FL150. Variable winds with gusts up to 35
kts are possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from
nearby storms.

Storms are expected to diminish by the mid-evening hours, with
dry and mild conditions at all terminals tonight.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

An isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated in
portions of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this
evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary
thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 55 mph and
dangerous cloud to ground lighting strikes. Isolated to scattered
wet thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada each afternoon
and evening Friday and Saturday. Elevated fire weather conditions
are anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada each
afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday due to south to southwest
wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low
as six percent.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...99