Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
532 FXUS65 KLKN 171952 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1252 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 * Elevated fire weather conditions will persist due to warm temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and low humidity. * Isolated dry thunderstorms mainly along the northern NV border this afternoon and evening. * Warm and dry conditions are expected to return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025 No updates are planned for this period. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area, with a trough of low pressure situated along the west coast and high pressure over the southern U.S. Weak to moderate instability with CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg and lingering monsoonal moisture will support a 10-30% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms primarily focused along the northern Nevada border this afternoon and evening. Cloud bases are expected to be at or above 10K ft AGL. The main hazards associated with any thunderstorm development include gusty outflow winds near 40 mph and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Warm and dry conditions are expected to return Monday and Tuesday as high pressure gradually retrogrades over the western U.S. Highs will reach into the upper 80s to upper 90s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25 mph. By Wednesday, some monsoonal moisture may begin to creep underneath the ridge, bringing a chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through late next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence in the development of isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly along the northern NV border. The NBM appears to be struggling with the aerial extent and coverage, so weather grids have been adjusted based on recent model trends and high resolution guidance. With recent fires in northern Nevada, weather grids were also adjusted to incorporate high resolution guidance for smoke, particularly around the Tuscarora area. Forecast confidence remains low regarding the timing, extent of moisture, and instability for the development of afternoon thunderstorms mid to late next week. For now, weather grids have been adjusted based on latest cluster analysis and probabilistic ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken clouds with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL180 will be present across northern and central NV. Afternoon instability may initiate afternoon dry thunderstorms mainly along the northern NV border. Variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby storms. Due to limited coverage and low probability, thunderstorms were not included for the northern terminal sites. Winds will generally be from the south-southwest at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25 kts, subsiding this evening between 03Z and 04Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly flow on Sunday will increase fire weather conditions for zones 425/426/427 and southern portions of 438/469/470, with sustained winds of 10-15 mph, gusts as high as 25-30 mph along with low RH values at or below 15%. Upper moisture gets pushed further north along the state border, giving the northern part of zones 438/469/470 and far northeastern portion of 437 chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Dry lightning will still be an impact through the afternoon to the affected zones. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...97