Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
064 FXUS65 KLKN 032123 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 223 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 * Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this afternoon and Friday afternoon with lighting and gusty winds. * High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through Saturday before gradually climbing back well into the 90s with Moderate HeatRisk into next week. * Critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening over portions of east-central Nevada due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Other areas will remain elevated. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak stationary front across southern Oregon and Idaho will be the focus for continued isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this evening. Hi-res guidance brings a slight increase in coverage with more scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight as a more pronounced shortwave perturbation moves overhead. Thus, expecting more activity through the overnight than last night. isolated showers and thunderstorms early Independence Day look to move out of the area into the afternoon and evening, with a 25% chance continuing through the late afternoon across eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. A breezy afternoon as well across most of the forecast area with west-southwest winds into the afternoon gusting from 25 to 30 mph, which will create critical fire weather conditions across White Pine County. See fire weather section for more information. An upper level trough stalls just off the northern California coast into the first half of next week with the 4 Corners High intensifying and shifting slightly westward into the second half of next week for increasing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and expanding Moderate HeatRisk across most of the valleys of northern and Central Nevada by Tuesday and Wednesday, which may necessitate additional heat headlines. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in thunderstorms through tonight, though low confidence on placement and timing this evening. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement on slow building of the Four Corners High into next week. Moderate confidence on a drier pattern into next week with placement of the high shunting monsoonal moisture. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period however thunderstorms this afternoon may bring visibility down when passing over the terminals. VCTS expected at all terminals, dissipating to calmer skies in the evening with CIG levels staying low around FL080 to FL120. Breezy southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts at all terminals. Convective wind gusts up to 45 kts are possible from passing storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across all zones due to thunderstorms, elevated winds, and low RH values. Elevated to near critical conditions tomorrow with a Red Flag Warning issued at NV425. NV426 and NV427 also look to be near critical, but are not expected to reach red flag criteria. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97