391
FXUS65 KLKN 261020
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
320 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 154 AM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

* Southerly afternoon breezes across central Nevada with gusts 20
  to 30 mph thru next week

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in and near Humboldt
  County, northwest Elko County, and portions of northern Lander
  County

* Period of fair weather next week for northern Nevada looks less
  certain as latest prognostics look favorable for continued
  afternoon convection into mid week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Weak upper low present over NorCal moves
across northwest Nevada today as part of the over all
southwesterly mean flow. Concurrently, a robust upper cut off low
moves into position over the Gulf of Alaska from the north,
reestablishing an upper trof along the west coast. Southwesterly
flow looks to continue over the Great Basin thru the forecast
period. Southerly afternoon breezes remain present across central
Nevada thru the period with gusts 20 to 30 mph, and the higher end
of the range situated across White Pine County. Winds slightly
more modest across northern Nevada. Though an upper
perturbation moving thru the region from the Pacific in the
Wednesday time frame looks to produce stronger south-
southwesterly winds. Not anticipating advisory criteria winds at
this time however.

Isolated to scattered and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon in and near Humboldt County with latest
progs indicating slightly greater atmospheric moisture content
than yesterday. Feeling fairly confident in this regard as a few
automated remote observation stations recorded wetting rains
yesterday within the western half of the County. Isolated dry
thunderstorms will be present across northwest Elko County and
portions of northern Lander County. Occasional lightning strikes
and gusty and erratic outflow winds with gusts 45 mph or more will
be the main concerns. Thunderstorms again expected Sunday in
Humboldt County and northwestern Elko County. Isolated dry storms
will be present. Period of fair weather next week looking less
certain for northern Nevada with numerical guidance shifting, and
suggesting enough instability and atmospheric moisture remaining
present for continued convection each afternoon into mid week.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast with mostly dry storm modes.
Convection remains focused in and near Humboldt County and
northwestern Elko County.

Temperatures will reside a few degrees cooler than
average thru the weekend, warming to around average next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the short
term forecast though exact coverage of thunderstorms slightly
uncertain. As noted, uncertainty as to how far to the northwest
thunderstorms will shift next week has become higher as latest
model prognostics are now shifting to favor continued convection
within portions of northwest Nevada thru early next week.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next
24 hour period. Thunderstorms will develop across portions of
Northwestern and North-Central Nevada late this Saturday morning
and persist into Saturday evening. There is a 30% chance of
thunderstorms today at KWMC and a 10% chance at KBAM. By late
this Saturday afternoon and into the early evening hours KEKO
will have a 5% chance of thunderstorms. Outflow winds from nearby
storms at KWMC KBAM and KEKO could produce wind gusts of 30 to 45
mph.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions persist across central Nevada this
afternoon due to southerly wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph along
with minimum afternoon relative humidity residing around 15% or
less. Gusts will be strongest across fire weather zone 425.
Overall synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged thru next
week, and southerly afternoon breezes can be expected across
central Nevada thru the week with the higher end gusts continuing
to be located within zone 425. Across northern Nevada, winds will
be slightly more modest, though main concern is again isolated to
scattered, thunderstorms this afternoon in and near zone 437, the
northern halves of zones 438 and 469, as well as much of 424.
Storm modes will be mostly dry with latest progs indicating
slightly greater atmospheric moisture content than yesterday.
Storms within zone 437, particularly the western half of zone 437,
will likely be a mix of wet and dry. Feeling fairly confident in
this regard as a few automated remote observation stations
recorded wetting rains yesterday. Period of fair weather next week
looking less certain for northern Nevada with numerical guidance
shifting, and suggesting enough instability and atmospheric
moisture remaining present for continued convection each
afternoon into mid week. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast with
mostly dry storm modes. Convection remains focused in and near
zone 437 and the northern half of 438. Temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler than normal thru this weekend, warming to around
normal early next week.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...92