Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
463 FXUS65 KLKN 211738 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1038 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Historically high atmospheric moisture content today * Flash Flood Watch today for most of Northern and Central Nevada * A few strong thunderstorms possible throughout Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Wednesday * Decreasing rain chances Thursday through Sunday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An anticyclone aloft will move southeastward into the South Central United States this afternoon. This will pull monsoonal moisture northward into most of Northern and Central Nevada, resulting in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Elko may break its all time record for precipitable water this afternoon. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall in most of Eastern Nevada today. In addition, there is a Flash Flood Watch in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada today. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Eastern Nevada on Tuesday, July 21st, 2026: Eureka - 57% Lund - 50% Ruby Lake - 50% Ely - 49% Austin - 48% Currie - 47% Tonopah - 44% Wells - 43% Great Basin National Park - 43% Elko - 42% Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over most of Northern and Central Nevada Wednesday, setting up another period of inclement weather Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, although not as active as today. The aforementioned upper-level area of high pressure will expand northwestward Thursday through Monday. As a result, storm chances will dwindle Thursday through Sunday, before ending by Monday of next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding historically high atmospheric moisture content today. High forecast confidence in a Flash Flood Watch for most of Northern and Central Nevada today. High forecast confidence regarding a few strong thunderstorms throughout Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Wednesday. Moderate forecast confidence in decreasing rain chances Thursday through Sunday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers/thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, and KWMC this afternoon and this evening. Direct terminal impact cannot be ruled out. The strongest thunderstorms could produce erratic wind gusts near 40 knots and reduced visibility in heavy rainfall. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening today and Wednesday. The primary hazards will be small hail, wind gusts near 50 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Enhanced runoff and localized flooding is possible in storms that form over areas with antecedent rainfall from the past few days (especially portions of 470 and 425). && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flood Watch through this evening NVZ031-033>041. && $$ 87