101
FXUS65 KLKN 061903
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1203 PM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A twenty to thirty percent probability for thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening across portions of far northern and east-
  central Nevada

* Breezy conditions this afternoon and early evening

* At or just below average temperatures will continue through the
  next several days. Expect a rather chilly morning on Tuesday
  with readings in the 30s

* Dry conditions are expected Monday through at least Thursday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny at this time with
some low to mid clouds streaming across portions of northern and
east-central Nevada. Winds have developed across central Nevada
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds will eventually diminish
later this evening.

For the rest of today and tonight, upper level low pressure is
currently spinning across southwestern Oregon at this time with a
shortwave rounding the base of this trough. Upper level ridging is
currently over the mid-western United States. The upper trough
will quickly move northeastward tonight and Monday, bringing a
more westerly flow to the forecast area. The isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the northern and central
sections will continue into the early evening hours before
dissipating. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.

For Monday, the aforementioned upper trough will scoot off to the
northeast. Meanwhile, heights across northern and central Nevada
will slowly rise during the day. Winds are not expected to be as
strong with some occasional breeziness to 20 mph but that is about
it. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Look for a rather chilly
overnight period with mainly clear skies. Given that we are still
in the growing season, there is a possibility of reaching
temperatures below 36 degrees. Some of the colder locales like
Wildhorse is showing thirty-five to forty-five percent probability
of seeing low temperatures below 36 degrees for the Monday night
to Tuesday morning time. A frost advisory may be needed for
portions of northern, south- central Elko counties, along with
southern Lander/Eureka, and White Pine counties for Tuesday
morning. Lows will be in the 30s.

Models are now showing a continuation of the rising heights for
the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. This will mean afternoon
high temperatures are expected to warm to above normal levels with
readings in the low to upper 80s. Winds are expected to be rather
light winds, though some occasional afternoon breeziness to 20
mph are possible. At this time, no precipitation is expected. Dry
conditions will continue into the overnight each day with lows in
the 40s.

By Saturday, model simulations are depicting a rather sharp
shortwave trough diving to the south and across the Pacific
Northwest states. Did not make any changes to the current blended
forecast at this time for the upcoming weekend.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the
current NBM forecast. There is high confidence cooler than normal
temperatures continuing through roughly Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence in a 10% to 30% chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across northern and
eastern portions of the forecast area. Confidence is also moderate
regarding Tuesday`s morning low temperatures and the possibility
of headline cold products being required.

There is low confidence in the long range forecast as model
solutions show a high degree of divergence for the upper pattern
after Friday.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today and tonight.
West to SW winds with peak gusts in the 25-35kt range this
afternoon, strongest at KELY. Increasing clouds late this morning
and afternoon with a 30% chance of thunderstorms at KELY and KENV.
Winds and thunderstorm chances diminish by late this evening. Dry
and storm-free on Monday with much lighter winds.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Clouds will continue to increase over northern and east-central
Nevada this afternoon. There is a twenty to thirty percent
probability for showers and thunderstorms through the early
evening hours. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue this
afternoon and early evening with gusts to around 35 mph across
fire zone 425 today, though minimum relative humidity values in
this zone will be well above critical levels. For tomorrow through
mid-week, lighter winds are expected. The drying trend continues
such that the mid-week portions looks more storm-free with
afternoon high temperatures climbing to above normal levels.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86