Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
914 FXUS65 KLKN 091931 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1231 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 * Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening * A few strong thunderstorms are expected in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening * Precipitation chances increase Saturday into Saturday night as a trough of low pressure passes across Northern Nevada * Much cooler this weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will build northward across the Rocky Mountains this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Central Nevada until 8 PM PDT this evening due to south wind gusts near 50 mph. An upper-level area of low pressure will remain just offshore of Oregon Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph, locally heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, and small hail. A trough of low pressure will pass eastward across Northern Nevada Saturday into Saturday night, resulting in elevated precipitation chances. Precipitation chances will be highest over Eastern Nevada. The majority of precipitation will fall Saturday afternoon. Snow levels will start at around 10,000 feet Saturday morning, before dropping to about 6,000 feet Saturday night. Here are probabilities of one tenth of an inch of rain or more for locations in Northern and Central Nevada from 5 AM PDT Saturday, October 11th, 2025 until 5 AM PDT Sunday, October 12th, 2025: Ruby Valley - 66% Eureka - 63% Ely - 61% Wells - 61% Lamoille - 56% West Wendover - 55% Jackpot - 54% Jarbidge - 53% Spring Creek - 47% Elko - 41% A cooling trend is expected this weekend. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees cooler than Friday afternoon. Maximum temperatures Sunday afternoon will be about ten degrees below normal for this time of year. Sub-freezing temperatures are anticipated in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. A cyclone aloft will move southward, just off the west coast of the United States Monday and Monday night. This upper-level area of low pressure will turn eastward and make landfall over Central California Tuesday. The cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure as it passes across Nevada Tuesday night. This atmospheric disturbance will be responsible for another round of valley rain and mountain snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Moderate forecast confidence in the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. High forecast confidence regarding elevated precipitation chances Saturday into Saturday night. High forecast confidence in much cooler weather this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions to continue across all terminals through the next 24 hours. Southerly wind gusts to 35 to 40 knots can be expected at KTPH and KELY through the early evening. Increasing clouds will be the rule tonight into tomorrow, with VCTS during the late morning hours at KELY. Winds will again develop during the afternoon SW10-20G30-35KT at all terminals except KENV. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and windy in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. Be that as it may, fuels are not critical at this time. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Periods of precipitation are likely in Eastern Nevada Saturday into Saturday night as an atmospheric disturbance passes eastward across Northern Nevada. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...87