Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
874 FXUS65 KLKN 040855 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID 155 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 133 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 * Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this afternoon with lighting and gusty winds. * High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through Saturday before gradually climbing back well into the 90s with Moderate HeatRisk into next week. * Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening over portions of east-central Nevada due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Other areas will remain elevated. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 133 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across northern and central Nevada during this early morning. A few cells were strong earlier. Expect the activity to continue into the early morning hours. There is a weak upper trough moving across the western United States this morning. This feature will continue north of the area as it treks east. For today, southwest flow will continue over the forecast area. Winds will be 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, though in central Nevada winds will be a bit stronger. In portions of White Pine and northeast Nye counties. In these areas, wind gusts to 35 mph are likely. As a result, previously issued red flag warning looks good as winds will combine with low relative humidity values around ten percent. High temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80s. Isolated showers (around fifteen percent) are possible in northern and northeastern sections of the forecast area this evening with gradually clearing conditions by midnight. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. By Saturday, models are showing the trough axis east of northern and central Nevada. The flow remains mostly southwesterly with a rather stable air mass overhead. No precipitation is expected with highs in the 80s and 90s. Winds will be fairly light, with breezes to 20 mph in central Nevada. The weather is expected to remain quiet Saturday night with mostly clear conditions and lows in the 40s and 50s. On Sunday and Monday, upper level ridging will begin building over the southern United States and northern Mexico, while an upper low is forecast to close off west of California. The weather will remain on the dry side during this time with heights rising. This will bring increasingly warmer temperatures to the forecast area. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s on Sunday with readings in the low to mid 90s. Will need to keep a watch for early next week with respect to the issuance of any heat related headlines. In addition, winds will be breezy Monday afternoon in central Nevada and may lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Tuesday through Thursday, the upper ridge axis will continue to move west with the upper low remaining west of Nevada. This will bring warmer conditions to the area with heat related headlines possible as readings will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in thunderstorms through today, though low confidence on placement and timing. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement on slow building of the Four Corners High into next week. Moderate confidence on a drier pattern into next week with placement of the high shunting subtropical moisture east. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period. VCTS expected over the eastern terminals of KEKO-KENV-KELY through the early to late afternoon period. Convective outflow winds of 40 knots are possible with any storm. Winds will be breezy SW10-15G20-25KT with stronger gusts to 30KT at KELY. The threat for any storms will end after 03Z this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected today mainly in the northern and eastern zones. Critical fire weather conditions remain in fire weather zone 425 as low relative humidity values and strong winds are expected this afternoon. Elevated conditions expected over the rest of the fire zones with low RH with wind gusts to 25 mph this afternoon. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92