334
FXUS65 KLKN 242200
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
300 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 * Isolated, mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in Northern Nevada
   Monday afternoon into Monday evening

 * Not as warm Memorial Day, but warming trend resumes thru the
   end of the week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Light showers and dry thunderstorms
across central Nevada will dissipate thru this evening with
weather becoming mostly dry later tonight. Overnight low
temperatures reside in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Modest upper low over central Nevada continues to move east into
the four corners region, taking chances of showers and
thunderstorms east as well. Only locations anticipated to see a
low probability for light showers and dry thunderstorms will be
the Snake and Schell Creek ranges Sunday afternoon. Any new
rainfall accumulations remain less than 0.10 inch. Otherwise
transient upper ridge traverses the region Sunday behind the
exiting upper low with dry weather elsewhere. Surface winds will
be generally light aside for westerly breezes across western
Humboldt County. Daytime high temperatures reside in the mid 70s
to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 40s Sunday night.

A small shortwave trough from meridional upper level flow, is
expected to push across the Great Basin Monday evening into
Tuesday. This shortwave will bring in more convective chances
across northeastern and eastern Nevada in the afternoon. PW values
remain low with the highest of 0.6 inches in northeastern Nevada,
leaving much of the convection expected to be dry with higher
elevations and mountains receiving light amounts of rain.

High pressure builds back over the western U.S. returning dry and
warmer conditions across western Nevada, however there is some
disagreement with the models on weather activity over eastern
Nevada, mainly Elko and White Pine Counties. Some models
indicating a more drier pattern with warming temperatures reaching
into summer-like levels, while other models are showing a cutoff
low lingering over southern Nevada, giving chances of convective
activity in Elko and White Pine Counties each afternoon until
Friday.

By the weekend, models show greater confidence that a stronger low
pressure system moves in to the southwestern U.S. along the
Pacific Coast with the potential of moving into Nevada.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Isolated dry thunderstorms
situated primarily over the Schell Creek and Snake Ranges Sunday
afternoon, though model diagnostics suggest activity will be
possible across southern White Pine and northeast Nye Counties as
a whole. However, not confident enough to include wider areal
coverage of such at this time. Low chances (10%) of showers and
dry convection are expected at times thru next week, but exact
areal coverage is uncertain given marginal PWATs and uncertainty
in the synoptic pattern.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period. 10-20% chance of
showers (mainly virga) and dry thunderstorms expected across
central Nevada this afternoon into evening with VCTS, and possible
-TSRA at KELY and KTPH. North-northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts,
 gusts 20-25 kts. Variable winds with gusts up to 30 kts are
 possible from downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby
 thunderstorms.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry weather tomorrow with latest guidance
pulling back on shower and dry thunderstorm coverage and isolated
light showers and dry thunderstorms will mainly be situated over
the high terrain of fire weather zone 425, primarily the Schell
Creek and Snake Ranges. Westerly breezes in the afternoon for the
western half of zone 437, otherwise generally fair weather
elsewhere. Isolated light showers and mostly dry thunderstorms
Monday afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area
with potential at times later in the week though confidence is
low on exact areal coverage at this time. Temperatures continue
their warming trend after Monday with warmer than normal values.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...92