Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
676 FXUS65 KLKN 050918 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 218 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 155 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns. * High temperatures for the start of next week will be in the 90s to 100s while overnight lows will dip into the 50s and 60s. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Wednesday and Thursday, but heat returns Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) Issued at 155 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current synoptic situation depicts upper level ridging over the southern United States/northern Mexico with a weak upper level trough west of California. For today through Tuesday, the upper level ridge is expected to move west, setting up a position across southern Arizona. Meanwhile, the upper trough will close off and maintain a position off the California coast. The weather is expected to remain mostly dry though this time with highs in the 80s to low 90s today but climbing into the upper 80s to mid to upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. By early next week, highs will be about three to seven degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with gusts to about 20 mph. However, by Monday and Tuesday, winds in the central parts of the forecast area will be a little stronger, with speeds of 30 to 35 mph. Will explain in further details regarding fire weather below in that section. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s through Monday night. The upper ridge is forecast to continue to move to the west and will set up shop over central Arizona, while the upper trough opens and moves northeast. The resulting flow will remain out of the southwest which will keep a drier pattern over northern and central Nevada through Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s Wednesday but will climb back into the mid to upper 90s Saturday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building back in over the the Great Basin for the weekend and into the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. There is moderate confidence of critical fire weather conditions over central Nevada next Monday and Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period. Winds will be breezy with occasional gusts to 20KT in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will begin building over northern and central Nevada through the period. Winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds through the weekend, but by Monday and Tuesday, a passing upper trough may bring wind gusts greater than 30 mph, especially across the central Nevada zones of 425-427. This may warrant fire weather headlines in these areas during this time frame and will need to be watched. Otherwise, minor cooling is expected with this passage with high pressure strengthening for the latter portions of the week with temperatures rising to above normal levels. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86