937
FXUS65 KLKN 142010
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
110 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low pressure just to our east will
continue to promote showers and isolated thunderstorms over far
northeastern Nevada today. High pressure will bring drier and
warmer conditions Thursday. The next frontal system will move
across the Silver State Friday through this weekend, bringing
more widespread chances for accumulating rainfall. High pressure
looks to bring drier and warmer conditions by Tuesday and
Wednesday next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night

The pesky closed upper-level low pressure center that has been
camped over the area the past few days continues its slow exodus
to the east this afternoon. With mid-level height rises over the
region, afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer in the
upper 50s to low 60s, warmest over the valleys of Humboldt and
northern Nye Counties. Scattered showers continue on radar once
again, with brief downpours and isolated chances for lightning
(20% chance over Elko County), though instability is less than the
past couple of days and a General Thunder Outlook from the SPC
only clips far northeastern Elko County. Cannot rule out brief
periods of graupel as well. Brief light snow accumulations above
7000 feet as well.

Showers will once again wind down over night with skies clearing
over the entire area. This will allow for temperatures to cool
quite quickly, dropping into the low to mid 30s (some 5 to 10
degrees below normal for mid May).

High pressure will build further eastward across the Great Basin
for warmer and milder conditions as highs climb back closer to
normal in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

The main weather feature of the long term period is the long wave
trough that will push two waves through the region over the
weekend. On Friday zonal flow behind a retreating upper level
trough to the east resides over the Great Basin where afternoon
highs will reach into the 60s. This is short lived however due to
an Aleutian low building into the western CONUS. Trough
amplification occurs over CA/OR Saturday morning in the form of a
short wave that will quickly strengthen as it moves into the state
by Saturday afternoon. Vorticity and frontogenesis increase over
the state by midday Saturday when precipitation spreads from a few
isolated showers over northwest NV to more widespread showers and
thunderstorm activity across northern and central NV through the
afternoon and evening. Saturday looks to be the wettest day of the
period with rain accumulations of up to half an inch are possible
in eastern and east central NV. This coincides with the best
convective chances for the region where 120-180 J/kg of CAPE are
available combined with LI`s in the 0 to -2 range and PW values
more than capable of producing mixed wet and dry convection.
Increased frontogenesis and the passage of the associated boundary
with the trough will enhance the convective growth needed to
reach forecasted accumulations. Rain cooled temperatures Saturday
and Sunday will top out in the 40s and 50s as the pair of systems
impact the region. Snow levels remain at or above 6500 feet as
this system pushes through keeping frozen precipitation confined
to higher elevations and peak across the area.

By Sunday morning a low pressure center develops in the base of
the parent trough over the ID/NV border. This low will persist
over the state through Monday even as the second shortwave
develops to the west as rides the upper level flow of the parent
troughs axis into the area. The second wave impacts the state
Sunday and contributes an additional 0.1 to 0.4 over Nye and
southern Lander and Eureka counties as well as 0.1-0.3 over
eastern NV. Showers persist into Monday when the second boundary
drags through the region ending precipitation from west to east by
Monday afternoon. Ridging builds into the western CONUS Tuesday
and Wednesday bringing quieter weather to the state and afternoon
highs into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals except
for KEKO and KENV where an isolated shower is possible through
Wednesday afternoon as the low pressure system over the area
pushes eastward away from the area by Thursday morning. Wind
gusts in the 20-25KT range are anticipated at KEKO, KELY, KBAM,
KENV, and KTPH through the early evening before diminishing after
sunset. Thursday conditions will be pleasant with no precipitation
anticipated at all terminals and wind gusts in the 18-20KT range
at terminals through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers across zones 438, 469, and 470, with a 20%
chance for isolated lightning strikes across 469 and 470 this
afternoon. Breezy northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph today and
tomorrow with afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph
over zones 469 and 470. Drier conditions Thursday and early Friday
as transient high pressure slides across the Great Basin. Another
slow-moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rainfall
and unsettled conditions late Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

84/99/99/84