Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
326 FXUS64 KLIX 091208 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 708 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 659 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 - An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. - The main concern will be potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially today. High rainfall rates in some storms will be capable of overwhelming drainage capacity and leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas, with the heaviest storms potentially leading to isolated flash flooding. While severe weather is a less likely threat, one or two strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. IF any storms become severe, the main threats will be damaging wind gusts and hail. - Residents should remain weather-aware through the weekend and plan ahead for potential street flooding - especially if normal commuting routes include flood-prone underpasses and other poor drainage spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Upper features at late evening included a trough from southern Missouri into west Texas, with ridging over the desert Southwest. A strong shortwave was moving into Idaho and Montana. At the surface, a stationary boundary was off the Louisiana coast, and another from the Ohio Valley to Oklahoma to west Texas. High pressure was off the Carolina coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring along the Interstate 10/12 corridor from Slidell to near Opelousas. Temperatures were in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The scattered to locally numerous showers should continue overnight. What seems to be fairly consistent is that another disturbance will race through the local area during the daytime hours, leading to yet another round of widespread showers and storms, especially along/north of the interstate corridor. With precipitable water values near 1.9 inches, efficient rainfall in some of these storms will continue to lead to at least an isolated flash flood threat. We will have a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area today. Going into Sunday it`ll be more of the same. Another fast-moving disturbance will move through the local area some time Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a cold front through the area with another round of showers and storms accompanying it. This activity currently looks to remain a bit more progressive, which should help limit the flash flood threat. The global models have slowed the timing of the trough passage down somewhat, so that precipitation could linger into the daytime hours Monday before departing. It might be late in the day before clearing occurs, which would hold high temperatures down a bit. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 All of the long term guidance remains in good agreement that a deep layer northwesterly flow regime and strong riding in the low to mid levels will remain in place through the end of the week. Ample subsidence and dry air advection into the area will keep a strong mid-level capping inversion in place through the week, and this will help limit cloud development each day. At most, some fair weather cumulus will develop beneath the inversion as temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s each afternoon. The dry airmass in place will also allow for a large diurnal range of around 30 degrees early in the week. Overnight lows will easily fall into the low to mid 50s over inland areas the lower 60s along the Louisiana coast both Monday and Tuesday night. Some gradual modification of overnight lows will occur later in the week as low level moisture slowly increases. However, lows will still cool a good 20 degrees into the low to mid 60s each night. Overall, a very pleasant stretch of weather is expected for the upcoming workweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Conditions at forecast issuance were a mix of MVFR and VFR. The current line of TSRA will have moved through most terminals by about 15z, with the main question beyond that point is how long stratiform rain behind the convection lingers. Additionally, there is some question as to whether redevelopment occurs this afternoon. Most of the overnight hours tonight into Sunday morning should be dry. However, MVFR conditions should be common for most or all of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026 Winds have been a bit more easterly over the coastal waters this evening with the stationary front off the Louisiana coast straddling our coastal waters. As the boundary moves northward later today, winds will again become south to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots, and will persist through the weekend. Another frontal boundary will move into the waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters for early next week. Winds should remain below headline criteria through the period, with the greatest concern being scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly today through Sunday night or Monday morning. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW