Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
027 FXUS64 KLIX 121707 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1207 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather will persist through the upcoming work week, with no significant weather impacts expected. - Temperatures steadily warm back up this upcoming week, reaching around 5 to 7 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80`s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 We`ve got yet another absolutely gorgeous day today thanks to a recent frontal boundary passage, with plenty of dry air filtering into the area. On the surface charts this morning, high pressure dominates a large portion of the east-central and eastern US, with a developing coastal low across the Carolina coastline promoting persistent and continuous reinforcing dry air into the southeastern US. The 12Z KLIX RAOB illustrates the depth of the dry air well, with a strong low/mid-level subsidence inversion aloft and overall very warm thermal profile by compressional warming. Below the inversion, a strong/deep dry-aidiabaitc mixed layer remains in place which, after we continue to warm up, will allow for dewpoints to drop quickly. This was a pretty typical target of opportunity against inherited blended guidance to drop dewpoints into a blend of the 10th/25th percentile to account for a high confidence PBL mixing regime. No adjustments to highs, as guidance appears in good agreement topping out in the low to mid 80`s. It`s lows tomorrow that needed a bit more focus, as MinT`s this morning definitely dropped cooler than most guidance. Verification reveals that temperatures this morning ranged between the 10th/25th percentile for the NBM guidance. Went ahead and applied this same low bias for tonight to capture this trend, as we`ll see another night of strong radiational cooling, thus also hit the typical drainage basins including the Pearl River and Pascagoula basin more directly at the 10th percentile, which brings these areas into the low 50`s. Not as cool for the southshore thanks to the weak northerly flow modifying over the (still) warmer lakes. Highs to slowly crawl warmer starting Monday into the mid to upper 80`s, again no big adjustments needed here as guidance is in good agreement that we`ll be ranging 5 to 7 degrees above normal, persisting for most of the upcoming week. Additionally, did apply a HRRR blend into the NBM for afternoon winds today and tomorrow to account for a weak seabreeze boundary following surface heating/maximized land/sea temp differential. However, will be slow to advect north given weak northerly flow but may relax some Monday and Tuesday to allow for a more northward track thru each afternoon. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Continued the low-bias in guidance for lows Tuesday morning, just not as aggressive more towards the deterministic/25th percentile which still brings lows in the mid to upper 50`s (low 50`s still for drainage basins). The main story will be the warmer afternoon temps remaining above average and staying bone dry all week. We do begin to see surface/low-level winds transition out of the east to eventual southeast later in the week as high pressure drifts east into New England, and we reside more on the southern to southwestern periphery of the large/broad high pressure region. This will drag dewpoints up steadily with time, making it feel not as dry but still enough to mix out plenty each afternoon. Next weekend, long-range guidance is hinting at our next front and potential rain maker somewhere across the southeast, primarily late in the weekend into early next week. Taking a look at cluster analysis to identify ensemble field similarities reveals one key item - low confidence. Spread is large likely given uncertainties on longwave trough evolution/strength developing over the central US. GEFS, EPS and CMCE guidance appear almost equally deriving slightly different scenarios which will determine the extent of rain chances and post-front cooldown we`ll see. Again, something to monitor, as we could see "something" leading to a change in the pattern (cool down, rain, etc - in some capacity). Will keep an eye on it. KLG && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions can be expected for all area terminals through the forecast period. Will monitor the potential for brief light ground/sfc FG for a few terminals Monday morning, mainly along and west of I-55 including KMCB, KBTR, KHDC and KHUM that may briefly drop flight categories between 11-13Z, but will quickly improve shortly after sunrise. Low confidence/impact for now, but will monitor. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Northerly offshore flow will persist today thru early/mid-week thanks to high pressure over the eastern US and developing low off the Carolina coast. This will keep conditions benign with light waves/seas and winds, as well as dry conditions. East to east- southeast flow does pick up some mid/late week, ranging 10 to 15 knots but will remain low impact and mainly dry into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 86 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 85 64 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 83 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 84 54 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...KLG MARINE...KLG