719
FXUS64 KLIX 111703
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Upper troughs off the South Carolina coast and off the coast of
southern California, with upper ridging over the southern Plains
States. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf, while
low pressure over the Great Lakes had a cold front southwestward
into Colorado. Locally, clear skies and light winds early this
morning, with a few patches of fog possible. Temperatures ranged
from 40 at Bogalusa to 54 at Lakefront Airport just before 4 AM
CDT.

High pressure will move eastward over the next 36 hours and extend
from near Bermuda to the eastern Gulf by Wednesday evening. The
trough off the southern California coast this morning will move to
Oklahoma by Wednesday evening. While surface winds will be
southerly today and Wednesday, moisture recovery will be extremely
limited due to the dry air currently off the Louisiana coast.
Precipitable water values that were near 0.3 inches on last
evening`s 00z LIX sounding will have only responded to 0.6 inches
by 00z Thursday. That`s barely above the 25th percentile
climatologically for mid-March. With low level RH values
struggling to reach 60 percent, and mid-level values more like 15
percent, it`s going to be difficult to get low or mid-level
clouds, let alone precipitation, through Wednesday afternoon.

Overnight lows tonight won`t be quite as cool as this morning, but
are still likely to fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s, which is
fairly close to normal. Highs today and Wednesday are likely to be
in the mid and upper 70s, but won`t rule out isolated 80 degree
readings, especially Wednesday. That`s 5-10F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The shortwave trough over the Great Plains Wednesday evening will
slide eastward along Interstate 40 across Tennessee on Thursday.
This could squeeze out a few sprinkles across mainly northern
portions of the area Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but it
would be a surprise if anyone measures much more than about 0.05
inch of rain. Little, if any, cooling is expected with the passage
of this trough.

The bigger concern will be the strong storm system moving out of
the southern Rockies on Friday toward the Great Lakes on Saturday.
This system is expected to develop a sub-980 mb low pressure
center as it tracks toward the Great Lakes. The lead shortwave is
expected to become negatively tilted by Friday evening with
moisture levels increasing to about the 90th percentile by Friday
evening. Instability will still be somewhat lacking for much of
Friday night, but that changes quickly Saturday morning.
Precipitable water values increase to about 1.6 inches on the nose
of a strong low-level jet as mid level height falls arrive, which
is near the upper end climatologically for mid-March. Instability
and shear profiles continue to look very favorable for severe
weather, especially Saturday afternoon and evening, with the
greatest threat from about Interstate 55 eastward north of Lake
Pontchartrain. Both supercells and a QLCS are possible during this
period with all modes of severe weather on the table.

Any significant precipitation appears as if it will be east of the
CWA prior to sunrise on Sunday, with dry weather expected for the
early portion of the workweek next week. The next system behind
the weekend one doesn`t look to arrive until perhaps Wednesday
night of next week.

High temperatures will be well above normal through early next
week. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s through the
weekend, before turning a bit cooler for Monday and Tuesday
mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period for most area airports. IFR conditions
will be expected for a few hours around daybreak at BTR and GPT
due lower ceilings and visibilities from fog. Conditions at BTR
and GPT will improve to VFR by mid morning. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Marine conditions should be fairly benign through about Thursday,
as winds generally stay near or below 15 knots. That will change
on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the weekend
storm system. Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary by
Friday afternoon or evening across most or all of the waters.
There is potential for gale force winds, at least in gusts, on
Saturday and Saturday night. Conditions should start to improve on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  77  59  83 /   0   0  20   0
BTR  49  79  61  84 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  78  61  83 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  53  77  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  72  60  78 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  46  75  60  80 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...RW