Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
386 FXUS64 KLIX 291823 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Convection got going very early today and given the deeper southerly to southwesterly flow in the LL that makes sense. Convection was able to penetrate inland pretty quickly. The next few days will have a somewhat similar feel however convection may take a little longer to spread as far inland each day which would also let us warm up a tad more. That said the weak broad ridge currently over the region will get nudged west as a L/W trough pushes through the central CONUS tomorrow and digs all the way into the southeastern CONUS. This added mid lvl support will allow numerous storms to develop across the region again tomorrow and Tuesday. As mentioned earlier convection will likely take a little longer to develop and spread inland so temperatures tomorrow will likely range from the upper 80s closer to the coast and lower possibly mid 90s before cloud cover and convection starts to cool locations off. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The extended forecast looks rather hot and likely the hottest temperatures we have seen so far this Summer as we head towards the 4th of July weekend. The one hiccup could be rain though as the rain potential will not be zero and but should be much lower than what we will have seen through Wednesday. Medium range models overall are in decent agreement however there is some spread as we get into next weekend. Since there were no significant forecast discrepancies the NBM forecast was good enough so no changes were made. By Wednesday the ridge to our west will already be sliding east. At the same time the eastern CONUS L/W trough will also slide east with the trough axis moving offshore. That said the base of the trough hang back into the eastern Gulf and this is a feature we may need to keep an eye on. Multiple model runs show this feature breaking off either over the eastern Gulf or on the east side of FL with a very very slow transition to a possible tropical like system. NHC this morning added a 20% (low Risk) across the northeastern Gulf and the Atlantic just off the FL/GA/SC for possible tropical cyclone development over the next 7 days. Back to Wednesday the ridge still won`t quite be far enough east to drastically suppress convection and this should lead to one last decent shot of scattered to numerous storms but the rest of the week and heading into the weekend that is a different story. Thursday and into the weekend the ridge will be the story. By Thursday morning it will be centered over the western Gulf with the ridge axis extending through the Plains and to the Canadian border. By Friday evening it will be centered over the Lower MS Valley. The increase in mid lvl temps and suppression will really but a damper on convection however we still can`t completely rule out a few storms given the abundance of moisture over the area. That said the main concern come the 4th of July weekend will be the heat. Highs will get into the mid 90s and there could even be a few isolated areas topping out in the upper 90s. This will also drive up the heat index with heat advisories looking more likely by the end of the week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Outside of convection VFR conditions will remain in place through the afternoon and evening. That said, there is quite a bit of convection moving across the region. With any storm both vsbys and cigs will drop significantly. In addition the stronger storms will likely produce wind gust in excess of 25 kts. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure remains centered well to the east over the next few days which will continue to light to moderate southwest winds through Tuesday. By mid week high pressure becomes a little more broad over the Gulf with lighter winds Wednesday and then offshore flow for the 2nd half of the work week. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 91 73 91 / 30 60 30 70 BTR 75 93 75 94 / 20 40 10 50 ASD 74 91 74 91 / 30 60 40 70 MSY 78 93 78 92 / 20 60 20 70 GPT 75 89 75 89 / 50 70 60 80 PQL 73 88 73 90 / 70 80 70 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB