Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
024 FXUS64 KLIX 281731 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Quick synopsis/overview: The southern US remains underneath a general weakness in the H5 pattern aloft, anomalously high PW across a large portion of the southern, central and eastern US as well as a very weak shortwave impulse weakening across AL/GA will all support an increase in summertime shower/storm activity activity through this weekend. Starting off with around the lunch hour, recent KHDC radar and GOES-16 satellite trends continue to illustrate shallow/scattered convection developing mainly across coastal SE LA and MS locations. We`re looking at most of this convection beginning a tad early than typical, and by looking closer at the 12Z KLIX sounding from earlier this morning, reveals a lot of answers. Will safely say, it`s a summertime sounding given anomalously high total column moisture (PW ~1.98", approaching the 90th percentile according to SPC sounding climatology) with a thermal profile strongly moist adiabatic. Tc is low in the 85-87F range thanks to the anomalously moist airmass, which all supports earlier in the day convection that we are seeing. Additionally, the wind profile is extremely weak, given near zero low-level SRH and bulk winds providing very little movement in convection today. Overall, storms will be forced by a combination of thermodynamic driven surface heating to begin today, then expand in coverage by boundary interactions/collisions. The lack of low-level wind speed will result in some boundary interactions to cause updrafts to become rooted/slow to a crawl and with very proficient rain rates from high PW`s, flash flooding may be a concern in a few areas. Additional threats with storms today include gusty downdraft/downburst wind gusts in excess of 30-40mph. Not seeing a strong indication of dry air in the mid-levels causing entrainment and downward wind transport potential, with relatively low DCAPE in the 500-700J/kg range. But ofcourse, will be monitored. Also will watch for any updrafts rooted to boundaries/collisions of boundaries for waterspouts later this evening, and again each morning for the next few days. No major adjustments to temperatures. Will continue to keep an eye on convective coverage, as that could cause MaxT`s to bust in a few spots depending on how much rain falls in one particular area. But generally overall, should top out in the low 90`s similar to what we saw yesterday. Then it`s rinse/repeat tomorrow as we say in the same pattern/weakness aloft with the same threats with afternoon storms. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Going into next week, not much changing as we remain in a large region of weakness aloft. A shortwave trough/impulse will swing across the MidWest/Great lakes region, providing a front and associated PVA into the mid MS valley region. This de-amplifies with time providing only remnant energy into the general area mid- week. Basically, it`ll be more of the same through about Wednesday. But thereafter, ridging begins to take over across the southern Plains into the northern Gulf, gaining greater confidence that we`ll see less in the way of typical afternoon summertime storms and more in the way of heat. For now, maximum heat indicies may likely approach/surpass advisory criteria later in the week and next weekend, that`s important to know due to July 4th activities and should serve as a heads up for those planning outdoor events. Please protect yourself from the heat and stay tuned for any future potential advisories as we near closer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Main focus for this afternoon will be the ongoing risk for SCT TSRA for all terminals 18Z-02Z. Impacts in any one storm will include temporary reductions in VIS and lower CIGs due to heavy rain causing lower flight categories. Gusty, erratic downdraft winds in excess of 25 to 35 kts will be possible, higher in any stronger storm. Outside of any TSRA activity, expect VFR to prevail. All activity should come to an end around/shortly after sunset with VFR prevailing. Some brief lower VIS possible for KMCB around daybreak between 3-5sm, but impacts will remain limited. && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Expecting much in the same daily overnight and morning chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms through this weekend into next week. Daily risks for morning waterspouts, gusty erratic winds and lightning can be expected in any one storm. Otherwise outside of mainly morning activity, conditions will remain mainly calm with winds light and waves/seas under 2-3ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 90 72 90 / 20 60 10 60 BTR 75 91 75 93 / 20 80 10 60 ASD 73 91 73 91 / 20 80 20 70 MSY 78 92 78 92 / 30 80 20 70 GPT 75 89 75 89 / 40 70 40 70 PQL 73 90 73 90 / 40 80 60 80 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KLG LONG TERM....KLG AVIATION...KLG MARINE...KLG