108
FXUS64 KLIX 160503
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The
  primary concern will be increasing heat, with heat indices
  potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure currently centered over the eastern gulf will move
slowly west then north eventually becoming centered directly over
SELA by late this evening. The main ridge lobe extending from this
center to the NW will begin to slowly pivot from its current
location of Amarillo to New Orleans into more of a north-south
orientation by Fri morning. One can follow the wind field at 850mb
to see it, but it is most discernable by the QPF fields(or lack
thereof) in every model. The high`s center then slowly moves
farther west and meanders around the NW gulf into SWLA over the
weekend while at the same time the ridge extending from its center
orients more NE-SW. This sets the stage for a sfc trough to dip
into the SE CONUS by this evening as the high vacates the eastern
gulf. The sfc trough(front) in focus here is currently located
from the southern tip of Illinois through central Tennessee then
down the GA/SC state line into the Atlantic. This is where the
Hurricane Center has a 20% chance of development outlooked. The
storms that are produced by this front, along with the frontal
axis, will rapidly move southward into the NE gulf tonight into
Friday. Frontal movement into the gulf or off the Atlantic
seaboard this time of year always needs to be watched and this one
will be no different. The area over the NE gulf could fester for
several days, but the area will also be interacting with a TUTT
low directly over it for at least a few days. The TUTT low is
currently over the FL Keys and western Cuba moving slowly
northward. If there were a maritime high over this area, it would
be a bit more concerning. But it would take more time for the TUTT
low to weaken then become weakly diffluent enough to help
something get started. Regarless, the moisture and storms that are
produced by this will also pivot westward very slowly through the
weekend as the high moves farther west. This could bring some of
the moisture over our area as early as Sat evening(I55 eastward).
This is about as far west as it will get through the weekend and
chances are not huge as far as precip numbers go. The main thrust
of this moisture well into the area would take several, if not
more, days after the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Taking a look at guidance for the long term, the NBM seems to be
running fairly high for temperatures especially for northeast areas
early next week. Not buying the 99s and 100s that it is pulling in
for Tuesday as that is a good 10 degrees above climos. Guidance is
running closer to the mid 90s, so will have to continue monitoring
how that plays out. Regardless, it will still be rather hot in the
long term period and will likely have days of heat headlines in our
future. Overnight lows will hangout in the mid to upper 70s, but a
few urban areas may not drop below 80 at night early to mid next
week. Outside of the heat, the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf
looks to stretch out late in the weekend and into early next week.
Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to dominate the western Gulf.
Most days there will be some isolated rain chances, but they will
mostly be confined to eastern areas and the offshore marine areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Winds will generally become more predominantly southerly as high
pressure builds over the eastern Gulf through the end of the week.
The number of storms will be lower through the remainder of the
week, but any that do develop will cause wind direction and speed to
become erratic and strong.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE