664
FXUS64 KLIX 061140
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Warm day as expected across the region and by late this afternoon
we did have convection with the bulk of it focused across near
coastal MS. Most storms dissipated by sunset and the one or two
storms that were still around by 3z were right along the SELA
coast.

Today and tomorrow should see more convection than we have the last
2 days. My lvl setup is transitioning to two ridges once again with
the western ridge centered just south of the 4 corners already
starting to build. The other ridge is east of the Bahamas while both
Chantal and an mid/upper lvl low much like a TUTT low is centered
over the northeastern Gulf. This TUTT will slide west over the next
few days and will increase the rain chances over the area. There are
some interesting details for today. We had been mentioning deeper
moisture moving back in but it appears both from models and GOES19
TPW product that drier continental air will actually recycle back
into the area from the northeast and east. This will have 2 impacts.
First it will likely keep much of the area east of I-55 on the drier
side today. That said the mid lvl dry air infiltrating should lead
to slightly better lapse rates and impressive DCAPE values. In fact
many of the CAMS are suggesting DCAPE values of 1200-1400 j/kg (some
even greater than 1400) before convection begins to fire. Obviously
CAPE is not an issue with SBCAPE expected over 3k. That said the
lack of stronger mid lvl flow or deep layer shear should hinder
things somewhat however given the cooling temps in the mid lvls
thanks to the approaching TUTT, the mid lvl dry air working in from
the east, and sufficient moisture across the western half of the CWA
storms will likely develop and a few will be capable becoming strong
to severe. The main concern will be damaging downbursts but can`t
rule out some hail given the cooler mid lvl temps (H5 temps around
-8 maybe even -9C). Area with the greatest risk should be the River
parishes including EBR and just to the east up to possibly I-55.

Convection will quickly start to wane over the land areas around
sunset and we lose the daytime heating but convection will begin to
transition more towards the marine areas. There will likely be a
period of minimal activity between 1/2z and 8/9z but given the TUTT
moving across the region convection likely begin to fire up quickly
over the coastal waters. The question becomes how fast does that
transition back to the land on Monday. Given that there is still not
deep southerly flow in the LL convection likely struggles to work
inland initially but with the low more on top of the area convection
will probably begin to fire over the area a little earlier on Monday
than Tuesday. This will lead to slightly lower instability. There
may be more storms around Monday but the risk for strong to severe
storms should be slightly lower.

As for rainfall, storms today should be a little more efficient than
Monday. PWs looks to be on the lower end Monday with most of the CWA
around 1.5-1.8 which is not anything out of the ordinary and the
more efficient rain looks to be later in the week. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Medium range models continue to advertise a slightly more active
pattern setting and high daily rain chance through the week.
Overall the consistency in the medium range guidance, continuity
between the models, and basically a slight lean towards
persistence given what we have seen this Summer suggest no real
deviations from the NBM.

The driest and probably warmest day of the extended portion of the
forecast this package may be Tuesday. Our upper low will be much
weaker as it continues to slide west into TX but the bigger
influence will likely be the Atlantic ridge nosing west in the Lower
MS Valley. The increase in hghts, suppression, and mid lvl temps
should hurt convective potential some but this will change for the
reminder of the work week.

As fast as the ridge noses in Tuesday it erodes and gets suppressed
just as fast heading into Wednesday. Two things, the western ridge
over the 4 corners amplifies and in response we get a trough to dig
across the mid and lower MS Valley. The trough quickly erodes the
western portions of the Atlantic ridge and we then move under that
trough across through the rest of the week. The other things this
trough is going to do is pull up rich gulf moisture and PWs begin to
climb back over 2" for the 2nd half of the work week. We will also
see deeper southwesterly flow in the LL across the northern Gulf and
into SELA. This should allow seabreeze convection to develop a
little earlier probably by late morning and start to move inland.
The deeper moisture, favorable upper lvl outflow regime, and rather
weak steering current will lead to efficient storms so locally heavy
rain will need to be monitored especially if it falls over flood
prone areas. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions across all forecast terminals this morning. Main
concern will be potential for TSRA during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Most of the convection allowing model solutions
keep areal coverage rather low. Will keep PROB30 groups in all
terminals for this package until a definitive focus becomes
apparent. Any storms that do develop will likely dissipate by
about 01z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Still fairly quiet over the coastal waters with generally benign
conditions outside of convection. Winds will remain a little more
chaotic and very light until about Monday night when high pressure
finally become a little more established over the eastern Gulf. High
pressure then just slightly builds to the west a little through the
week leading to onshore flow finally setting back up Tuesday and
through the work week. On the other hand convection will likely
begin to increase in coverage over the next 5 to 6 days, especially
over night and through the early to mid morning hours. Waterspout
potential looks like it may increase late in the week as much deeper
moisture begins to move north through the Gulf. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  92  71 /  40  30  60  10
BTR  94  73  93  74 /  60  40  70  10
ASD  93  72  93  73 /  40  20  60  10
MSY  94  77  93  77 /  40  20  70  10
GPT  92  75  91  75 /  30  10  50  10
PQL  93  72  92  73 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB