Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
545 FXUS64 KLIX 141119 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A broad area of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature impacting our weather through Thursday night. This high will remain centered directly over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low humidity, a large diurnal range in temperatures, and light winds will continue across the region. Strong radiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the low to mid 50s this morning in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages both tonight and tomorrow night. Away from the drainages, lows will easily fall into the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and the lower 60s south of the lakes and along the coast of Louisiana both tonight and tomorrow night. Highs will climb a good 30 degrees from the overnight lows as readings rise into the mid 80s each day. On Thursday, the high will begin to shift to the east, and winds will turn more east-southeasterly. A gradual increase in moisture advection will allow for a smaller diurnal range as dewpoints increase. However, clear skies and lighter winds will still allow for strong radiational cooling to occur. Overnight lows over inland areas will easily fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Conditions look favorable for some patchy fog formation over inland areas as temperatures fall below the critical crossover temperature, and fog is now included in the forecast for both late Wednesday and late Thursday nights. Highs will also continue to warm as the onshore flow advects in warmer Gulf air with readings easily rising into the mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday night) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 The medium range model guidance has come into much better agreement this evening on the timing and orientation of a deepening northern stream trough axis that will slide through the Gulf South over the weekend. As a result, forecast confidence has increased greatly as compared to yesterday that a cold front will slide through the area Saturday night into Sunday. In advance of this front, continued onshore flow and increasing moisture advection on Friday and Saturday will lead to more favorable conditions for convective development. Friday will continue to see lingering mid-level dryness inhibit convective development as a strong mid-level temperature inversion remains in place. This mid-level inversion will keep the scattered cumulus field that forms as temperatures climb into the upper 80s suppressed. Deeper updrafts are not expected to develop. However, on Saturday, moisture will turn sufficiently deep to erode the mid-level inversion. Additionally, a broad region of increasing omega associated with a region of positive vorticity advection moving into the area will also provide the forcing aloft to sustain some deeper and longer lasting updraft development by Saturday afternoon. As temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s, the convective temperature will be achieved and scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up. Fortunately, the wind field will remain fairly weak and severe storms are not anticipated. At most, a few stronger storms with some gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph and heavy downpours will take place on Saturday. The rain threat is reflected by PoP values of 30 to 40 percent Saturday afternoon. The front will slide through the area Saturday night into Sunday with continued scattered showers and storms, but the overall intensity of the storms will be weaker due to the loss of daytime heating and slightly less favorable upper level support. In fact, the risk of thunderstorms should be well offshore by Sunday morning as the front pushes toward the coast. As drier air and increasing northwesterly flow builds in behind the front, rain chances will quickly decrease Sunday afternoon and evening and skies will clear. Highs will be closer to average in the low to mid 80s on Sunday as weak cold air advection takes hold. These same conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure settles directly over the area and the heart of the 925mb thermal trough axis also moves in. Lows will easily fall into the upper and lower 60s away from the coast and the mid 60s closer to the coast both Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR through this cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast on Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more variable and below 10 knots and seas will remain below 2 feet through Wednesday, but a winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas will also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots on Saturday. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday, these higher winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 84 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 86 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 84 67 85 68 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 86 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...TE MARINE...PG