376
FXUS64 KLIX 052019
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Another day, another...warm...muggy...day with isolated storms.
Again storms have had a little more difficulty developing and
likely due to the lack of any real moisture surge. PWs around
1.5-1.6 is just not enough when there isn`t anything else to help
pop off storms and likely increasing hghts and mid lvl temps.

As for tomorrow and into the weekend not feeling real good about
convection Friday and Saturday and with that we can expected
rather warm and humid conditions. The ridge will continue to
expand into the area tonight and tomorrow while slightly drier air
in the northwestern Gulf will also drift into the area. This
should just lead to isolated storms at best tomorrow afternoon,
mainly associated with the seabreeze. Highs could actually climb
into the mid 90s in a few locations. Saturday looks like it will
be quite similar to Friday but there could be a few storms that
try to move in out of the northwest as the ridge will begin to
break down on the northeastern side. This is in response to the
pattern amplifying and a trough digging across the Plains which
will impact the forecast far more Sunday and well into the new
work week. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

As for the extended portion of the forecast, medium range models
are in fairly good agreement heading into next week but there are
some slight differences that could mean a big difference from
getting hammered with storms with being just on the outside.
Overall all do suggest an increase in rain chances with a definite
change in the pattern from what we see right now.

By Sunday the ridge will have been suppressed to the southwest
becoming centered over Mexico and the northern and especially
northeastern quadrant of it will have eroded allowing northwest
flow to return. Northwest flow is always tricky and how fast it
develops Sunday will determine if we can get scattered to
numerous storms to develop and if they do will likely be late in
the day. The more interesting and unknown is going into next week.
The models have indicated for days another more potent s/w
embedded in the flow coming down into the Lower MS Valley
Monday/Monday night. At the same time a weak boundary could dip
down into the Gulf coast states stretching from near the TX/OK
panhandles to the central Gulf coast. This would provide a
corridor for storms to ride northwest to southeast and these
storms would have the potential to become strong to severe. If
that does drop down far enough south we could see multiple rounds
of storms or even a few MCS`s Monday into Wednesday. If that
doesn`t quite slides far enough south we could be right on the
fringe of that activity. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue unless one of the isolated storms
moves over a terminal. Again the most likely locations that could
happen will be right around the coastal terminals, MCB and BTR are
less likely to see that impact. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

High pressure will remain in control over the area and will be
centered over the eastern Gulf. This will maintain the light
generally southerly and south-southwest winds into the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with the
greatest risk for storms east of the MS delta. Obviously with
these storms strong winds and higher seas are expected along with
a few waterspouts. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  74  94  75  94 /  10  20   0  30
ASD  74  92  75  93 /   0  20   0  30
MSY  77  93  77  93 /   0  30   0  40
GPT  75  90  76  91 /  10  20   0  30
PQL  73  90  75  91 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB