760
FXUS64 KLIX 130517 CCA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered storms impacted the region yesterday but outside of
those storms it was a warm one. Many locations that stayed out of
the rain saw highs in the mid 90s while the rest of the area
generally stayed in the lower 90s. Convection dissipated quickly
across the area during the evening and we should remain fairly
rain free through sunrise.

There will be some slight changes to the mid lvl pattern across the
region as the ridge to our east slowly builds west while the
weakness/trough just off to our west begins to lift. Even with the
ridge sliding a little more into the area we will still be on the
western periphery of it and it will not provide enough suppression
to completely shut down convection. This will likely continue to
lead to better rain chances across the western/southwestern half of
the CWA with locations along and east of I-55 the warmest. With h925
temps around 26/27C in those areas highs should have little problem
climbing into the mid 90s tomorrow and then isolated locations could
top out around 97 and possibly 98 as the ridge moves a little more
west and starts to build. As for any heat products we will hold off
on that for now. Afternoon dewpoints have been able to mix out
enough and as long as temps remain the lower to mid 90s most of the
area should remain below adv criteria. That said it will still be
quite warm and even oppressive in areas that aren`t able to get a
storm or two to help cool things down. As for Monday that may be the
better chance at getting some areas to reach heat advisory criteria.

Obviously can not rule out one or two strong to severe storms
tomorrow afternoon but overall it should be more of the typical
Summertime convection. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

As for the extended portion of the forecast it looks like it will
be the story of two tales. We will begin rather warm with maybe
somewhat limited convection however for the back half of the work
week and possibly into the weekend we are looking at what may be
multiple days of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rain a possibility. Medium range models are in
fairly good agreement through Friday and then the models begin to
diverge on how they handle to mid lvl pattern.

We begin with Tuesday and the ridge likely at its strongest point in
our forecast. It will be centered off to our northeast but it will
nose into the west-central Gulf. Mid lvl hghts will likely be at
their highest that day and h5 temps could finally warm above -6C.
This isn`t necessarily going to shut convection down but it will be
far more limited away from coastal areas. Afternoon highs will
likely be the hottest this day and with that it will also be the
best chance of reaching heat advisory criteria across a much larger
section of the CWA.

Wednesday through the rest of the week and into the weekend the
forecast will be dominated by an easterly wave. NHC currently has a
20% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
7 days but honestly whether it develops or not this wave will bring
a surge of moisture and with it numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. We will begin to see a weak trough develop over the
northeastern Gulf and FL late Monday and into Tuesday. As this moves
east it may try to slowly organize and take on Tropical
characteristics Wednesday through Friday. With it we will see a
surge of moisture begin to move in Wednesday with PWs well over 2"
moving in from the ESE and then slowly across the area over the next
24 to 36 hours. This should easily lead to numerous to widespread
convection Wednesday afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. Friday
and into the weekend showers and thunderstorms will be likely but
what happens to the system is a bigger unknown. The system could
become trapped and linger over the area through the weekend and if
that is the case it could lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall.
We will need to keep an eye on the rain potential heading into the
back half of the work week and next weekend. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Overall all terminals are in VFR status however we may see some
stratus try to infiltrate from the west during the early morning
hours. MCB and possibly BTR have the best chance of seeing these
low clouds. If they do get these low clouds it will be around
2500-3k ft. However, those clouds if they materialize will mix
out quickly after sunrise. Convection will develop again during
the late mornign and afternoon hours and could impact most
termianls at some point. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Overall not much to say on the marine side. High pressure
dominates the Gulf right now and light winds will continue with
the typical diurnal fluctuations near the coast and the nocturnal
jet east of the MS delta. Heading into the middle and back half of
the work week may be a little different. We will likely see a
weak trough maybe even a sfc low move west across the northern
Gulf however at this time it will be very week and winds will
remain on the light side. Biggest concern remains convection as
showers and thunderstorms should continue to be a concern during
the overnight and morning hours. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  72  93  73 /  50  10  40   0
BTR  92  75  93  75 /  60  10  60   0
ASD  93  74  94  74 /  50  10  50  10
MSY  93  78  93  78 /  60  10  70   0
GPT  92  75  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
PQL  93  73  94  75 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB