741
FXUS64 KLIX 050537 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1137 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A relatively flat upper level flow pattern that has been in place is
transitioning to increasing heights as a trough begins to dip into
the northeastern CONUS and upper ridging develops along an axis
right on the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains. This increasing
500mb height regime has been and will continue to lead to
unseasonably warm temps, especially overnight lows. In fact,
forecast lows are at or just below normal highs for this time of
year. That`ll continue over to the daytime temps with near records
again on Wednesday. In the morning hours before this warm up, low
clouds and possibly some lower visibility conditions may develop.
Elevated winds from the surface to aloft as well as a weak inversion
in place should generally limit visibilities from being low
enough for dense radiation fog to develop. It`s a tougher call
along the MS coast that is closer to the surface ridge and will
have lighter winds. As of now, holding off on a dense fog
advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

A quick moving shortwave will track across the Central Plains and
mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This will flatten
the upper ridge but generally remain too far north to have any
significant impacts to the local forecast. A few showers may develop
but doubtful anyone will see more than a few hundredths of an inch of
rain.

The bigger weather story will be near record high temperatures
through much of the forecast period. Hard to believe that just 2
weeks ago the entire local area was BURIED under several inches to
1 foot of snow and single digit lows. Forecast highs through
Sunday are at to slightly above records depending on location and
specific day. It`s not until late next weekend that medium range
models suggest next decent chance of rain and cooler air possibly
moving in and latest solutions are less bullish than 24 hrs ago.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Confidence is building in fog and low stratus development
overnight and early Wednesday. IFR/LIFR conditions will be
possible if not through VIS reductions then CIGs. Conditions
should improve by mid to late morning giving way to VFR conditions
during the afternoon into the evening timeframe. Unfortunately,
there is a strong signal for additional VIS/CIG issues overnight
Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Otherwise, surface
winds will slightly increase on Wednesday, however, should remain
at or below 10kts. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Relatively stagnant conditions continue over the marine zones.
Surface ridge centered in the northeastern Gulf has spread closer
the the local coastal waters. No change in onshore flow direction,
but did weaken already light winds east of the Mississippi River.
Although do have fog in the forecast, confidence is fairly low on
coverage and density due to water temps at or above forecast
dewpoints.

Wind speeds will likely increase somewhat in the latter half of this
week as shortwave tracks across the mid section of the country. The
tightening of the pressure gradient from that system could bring
offshore winds into the 10 to 15 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  62  78  62 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  82  64  82  65 /  10  10  10   0
ASD  77  59  75  62 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  76  60  75  63 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  72  57  70  59 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  78  57  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME