666
FXUS64 KLIX 110531
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1131 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- An Arctic high pressure system will bring temperatures to near
  or below freezing this morning across much of the area. A
  Freeze Warning has been issued for all of the outlook area with
  the exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain
  and the immediate SELA coast.

- Higher winds and seas will continue to cause hazardous
  conditions to small craft through the early morning. Small
  craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The coldest morning of the season is here, but this should be the
only morning with a large chunk of the CWFA experiencing freezing
conditions as the surface high pressure starts to spread east of
the region allowing for a warmer return flow to set up. Today will
remain below average in terms of temperatures with most of the
region only climbing into the upper 50s or lower 60s respectively.
Overnight, winds will remain light, but overall with the upper
flow pattern trying to take on a more progressive or zonal flow
and a return flow eventually becoming established, overnight
temperatures will likely be at least 10 degrees warmer across the
region.

Going into Wednesday the warming trend will be more apparent with
the region warming during the day about 10-15 degrees warmer than
that on Tuesday as again the low level onshore flow continues to
strengthen as high pressure continues to exit the region stage
east. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Going into late week the warming trend is forecast to continue as
an H5 ridge develops over the region and the onshore flow remains
locked in over the area. As the low level flow gradually
strengthens going into the weekend some light shower activity may
be possible with the rich low level flow streaming into the
region. Temperatures during the day will return to above average
levels with mostly average overnight lows expected...maybe
slightly above for a few. Eyes center upstream at a possible
frontal boundary late in the weekend. The upper level flow
pattern eventually evolves to an active southwesterly flow aloft.
Globals are struggling a bit with how far and how quickly this
front arrives into the region. Kept POPs on the lower end later
this weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week
given the lower confidence again in timing and placement of the
system. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR through the cycle. Winds will will become light and variable
tonight and early Tuesday, however, will begin to take on a more
southerly direction later on in the cycle. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Starting off with Cautionary headlines for the tidal lakes and MS
Sound as well as SCAs for the Gulf waters. High pressure is moving
into the region, which will break down pressure gradient gradually
through the morning and into the afternoon today. Mostly benign
winds and seas through the rest of the workweek. However, onshore
flow develops and strengthens by this upcoming weekend, which may
require additional cautionary headlines by the end of the forecast
period. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  28  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  30  61  45 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  27  58  43 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  39  62  50 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  54  31  57  45 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  26  57  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532-
     534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF