922
FXUS64 KLIX 200449
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Warm, humid, and mostly cloudy day for much of the area. Broad
area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is
keeping the onshore flow in place driving moisture into the area
and with breezy conditions we are seeing scattered to broken
skies. H925 temps remain in the 19-21 C range leading to highs
ranging around the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. The
system that will bring the severe weather to the southern Plains
tonight and portions of the mid and lower MS Valley tomorrow is
just starting top exit the 4 corners.

The forecast looks to be rather similar tomorrow with what we saw
today. Mid lvl ridge centered over FL and the Bahamas will remain
in place through tomorrow evening causing the 4 corners
disturbance to lift to the northeast well north of the area. The
associated cold front will have little support to drive southeast
overnight but it will continue to slowly drift towards the region
Monday. This will keep the area in southwest flow aloft with mid
lvl hghts remaining steady. Slightly stronger LL flow will bring
low clouds back into the region overnight again and may even allow
for a few sprinkles for your Easter Sunday but these will provide
no impact and the added cloud cover may help to keep things from
getting too warm. That said highs will remain similar or even a
degree or two warmer tomorrow but should still not get abv the mid
80s. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Forecast patterns changes a little and we will see better rain
chances over the course of the work week with the first legit
chance for some rain on Monday. The front although weak will
continue to drift southeast towards the region Monday. This will
allow for better LL convergence and combine that with the mid lvl
ridge weakening and shifting southeast, hghts falling and cooling,
abundant moisture in place and we should see scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms. Not anticipating much in the way of strong to
severe storms with the lack of any real forcing. The boundary will
pivot more west to east heading into Monday across the region and
this will allow for a few more showers and a storm or two but
again nothing of any serious impact.

Things may begin to change heading into the back half of the work
week. The gulf will remain open so we will continue to build
moisture and as we heat up each day we will destabilize with
storms possible but the biggest difference was mentioned by the
midnight shift and that is the models now not drifting the front
as far north and now a series of disturbances working across
Mexico/TX and through the Lower MS Valley. The first could be
Wednesday or Wednesday night with the next about 36-48 hours later
and possibly a 3rd at the end of the weekend. Each of these could
produce an MCS just off to our west/west-southwest and drive them
across the CWA with a few strong to severe storms possible.
We will need to keep a closer eye on these as small adjustments
will make big differences in the forecast and could mean the
difference from warm humid days with scattered clouds and maybe a
shower or two or a more active complex of storms. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail for terminals for the forecast
period. Low ceilings will continue for the overnight into the
morning hours then should improve slightly during the day before
dipping back into MVFR again tomorrow evening. Winds remain
slightly elevated with some gusts up to 20 knots during the day.
-BL



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Winds have been a little breezy today but look like they will
increase a little more overnight as a surface low gets going in
the southern Plains. Wind speeds will likely approach 20kt today
and tonight and slowly ease through Sun. An SCY is already in
place for the waters west of the mouth of the river and may need
to be expanded east tonight. Winds will back down some tomorrow
but more so Sunday night as the weak front drifts closer towards
the region. However, onshore flow will continue well into next
week. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  83  67  82 /   0  10  20  80
BTR  69  86  69  85 /   0  10  20  70
ASD  67  83  68  83 /   0   0  30  60
MSY  70  83  71  83 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  68  79  68  80 /   0   0  20  40
PQL  65  81  66  82 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ552-555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...CAB