Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
756 FXUS64 KLIX 151730 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The primary concern will shift toward increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Upper ridging extended from the northern Plains to Virginia this morning, with the upper low over Texas. At the surface, a stationary front was near Interstate 40. Much less precipitation on radar locally this morning. Still quite a bit of high cloud cover, which might actually be a good thing in holding temperatures down a few degrees today. This is verified by this morning`s LIX sounding which shows saturation above 13,000 feet. Shortwave ridging is expected to become established over Louisiana for the next couple of days, and be centered near the Sabine River Friday evening. A weak low is expected to develop or move into the northeast Gulf on Friday. This should produce weak northerly flow between the two, and may limit sea breeze effects on the Mississippi coast. If that materializes, that setup tends to produce the highest temperatures on the Mississippi coast. Any convection the next few days is likely to remain isolated, and likely remain near or east of Interstate 55. Highs today are likely to be in the lower 90s, and then in the mid 90s for tomorrow through Saturday. Lows generally in the 70s. Heat index values currently appear to fall just short of Heat Advisory criteria, although we`ll be getting close in some areas by Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Medium range models eventually take the weak upper low over the northeast Gulf and shear it out to the northeast along the Atlantic Coast. This should generally keep high pressure over the area, with only low end PoPs expected during the afternoon hours early next week. If there`s a day with better areal coverage of storms, it`s likely to be on Monday. The high pressure regime will keep high temperatures in the middle and upper 90s into the middle of next week. If the better rain chances for Monday materialize, highs would be blunted a few degrees. Lows will be in the 70s, although wouldn`t be surprised to see a few urban areas remain above 80 degrees overnight on at least one night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions at forecast issuance time, and likely to stay that way for most or all of the forecast period. Any threat of thunderstorms is too low to mention in the forecast at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Winds will become more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 kts and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. By early next week, low level winds increase enough that Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines may be necessary. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW