268
FXUS64 KLIX 101946
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
246 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Below normal temps and lower humidity expected through this weekend.

 - Hazardous marine conditions for all of the coastal waters through
Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An upper level ridge encompasses much of the center of the country
with the axis extending from south Texas to North Dakota...just east
of the Rockies. A deep upper low is just now entering the Pacific
NW. To the east of the ridge are 2 upper lows, one weaker one
centered over Georgia and deeper one near the Great Lakes. The CWA is
right on the eastern periphery of that ridge envelope but moreso
under general troughing to the east of it. The current setup will
maintain fall like temps and lower humidity across the region
throughout this weekend. Drier airmass is not just at the surface.
Model PW guidance shows column moisture content to be around 0.5-
0.75" all weekend. Thus, no appreciable land based rain chances
locally.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Going into next week, we start to lose those cooler temps. Both
upper lows situated to the east will shift into the western
Atlantic. This will allow for the upper ridge axis centered between
the Rockies and the Mississippi River Valley to move eastward, right
over the CWA by mid week. In response to those increasing 500mb
heights, temps will moderate around 3 to 5 degrees. That puts highs
into the mid to maybe upper 80s. This overarching pattern will carry
through most of the week. By Friday-ish...may finally start to see
that ridge weaken. If it does, won`t be surprised to see chances for
light rain to return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions will dominate the period. There are currently some
lower clouds right at the MVFR/VFR threshold but those will lift in
time before dissipating later this aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Persistent north-northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and rough seas
ranging from 3 to 5 feet in the tidal lakes and sounds to 5 to 8
feet in the open Gulf waters will be the rule through Saturday.
Although could meteorologically justify replacing SCY with SCS in
the tidal lakes right now, makes more sense from a messaging
perspective to keep SCY out during lull until nocturnal winds
increase there. Overall though, these conditions are in response to
a low off the coast of Florida and a high centered over the Southern
Plains. These rough conditions will keep a small craft advisory in
place for all of the waters through Saturday.  Sunday will see the
high over Texas become more centered over the region.  As this
occurs, winds will quickly drop to around 10 knots and turn more
variable.  These lighter winds and gradually improving seas will
persist through Monday.  A weak front will slip through the waters
on Tuesday, and a more persistent northerly wind of 10 to 15 knots
will take hold behind the front for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  84  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  84  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  61  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME