347
FXUS64 KLIX 171130
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Upper ridging over the Gulf, with troughing over Wisconsin and
Baja California. At the surface, Bermuda high extends westward
across much of the Gulf. Low pressure over Michigan had a cold
front southwestward to Texas. Locally, it`s a warm and steamy
night, with temperatures between 75 and 80 and dew points mainly
in the middle 70s.

Shortwaves moving over the ridge will mainly keep precipitation
north of the area through Sunday afternoon. Can`te entirely rule
out a few showers or storms over southwest Mississippi this
afternoon, but that`d be about it. Yesterday`s high temperatures
look to be a pretty good starting point for high temperatures the
next couple days. That would be upper 80s to lower 90s for most of
the area, and a few degrees cooler on the Mississippi coast, where
the sea breeze may cap off heating before everywhere else. Short
of having a thunderstorm, the numeric guidance for overnight lows
looks several degrees too cool tonight, with mid 70s more likely
than lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

While ridging continues over the southern Gulf for most or all of
next week, a strong trough moving through the Middle Mississippi
River Valley into the Great Lakes will push a cold front into the
area, and possibly through the area, at midweek. Medium range
guidance coming into agreement that the only real significant
chance of precipitation will be Tuesday night. Current NBM
numbers would have a chance of precipitation both Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but expect that later runs will back off on the
Wednesday PoPs.

Well above normal temperatures will continue until the frontal
passage with highs upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows in the mid
70s. By Thursday and Friday mornings, morning lows likely to be at
least 10 degrees cooler for much of the area, with some lows
across northern portions in the 50s. Highs at the end of next week
could range from upper 70s to mid 80s. We`ll hold onto the NBM
numbers for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Terminals are a mix of MVFR ceilings and VFR conditions at
forecast issuance time. Expect cloud bases to lift above FL030 by
mid to late morning, with VFR conditions for the remainder of the
daylight hours. MVFR ceilings will redevelop by late evening at
several terminals, continuing through mid-morning Sunday. There`s
a non-zero threat of convection this afternoon at KMCB, but much
too low to carry in the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Can`t entirely rule out winds briefly reaching or exceeding 15
knots at times, mainly over the western waters. Overall, any
impacts to marine operations should be rather limited, if they
occur at all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  91  72 /  20  10   0   0
BTR  92  74  92  75 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  90  73  90  73 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  91  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  86  73  85  74 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  87  71  87  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW