047
FXUS64 KLIX 171834
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
134 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Observational data (surface, radar, satellite) indicates that low
pressure is now south of New Orleans. The solid area of rain and
thunderstorms from earlier has pushed west of the Atchafalaya
River, but scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped
around the low pressure. These are likely to follow a more diurnal
life cycle, with much of the precipitation over land weakening or
dissipating shortly after sunset. Moisture content remains very
high with precipitable water values between 2.2 and 2.5 inches,
and those moisture levels are unlikely to change much through
tomorrow. While instantaneous areal coverage may not be as great
as it was overnight, there is still a threat of localized very
heavy rainfall across much of the area, and will not make changes
to the Flood Watch with this package. Scattered to widespread 2
inch rainfall amounts through 00z Saturday don`t look
unreasonable. Going to be tough for temperatures to get much
warmer than the upper 80s tomorrow before precipitation develops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

As circulation moves further away from the area, moisture content
begins to diminish on Saturday to 1.9 to 2.1 inches, and to around
1.8 inches on Sunday. The Sunday moisture levels are expected to
hang around through at least Tuesday before increasing again. The
airmass won`t be dry enough to preclude convective development
entirely during max heating, and will be carrying thunderstorm
mentions each afternoon. Lower rain chances also signals warmer
high temperatures beginning Sunday. High temperatures will return
to the mid 90s as early as Sunday, and heat index values are
expected to be sufficient to justify Heat Advisories across some
or most of the area for several days, through at least Tuesday.
Extreme Heat Warnings could be necessary in a few locations, but
way too soon to make that distinction. Some indications that there
may be another easterly wave moving across the northern Gulf at
midweek next week (Wednesday), but whether the precipitation
shield remains offshore or spreads inland is still in question. If
rain moves inland, that would mean somewhat lower high
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this afternoon, with radar
indicating scattered SHRA/TSRA rotating cyclonically around the
surface low south of New Orleans. Direct impacts could produce
brief IFR visibilities. Most should dissipate by 02z this evening.
Likely to start seeing SHRA/TSRA moving onshore again around
sunrise Friday, and areal coverage increase around 15z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Trimmed a bit of the Small Craft Exercise Caution, taking out the
tidal lakes and far western waters. Main concern will be potential
for thunderstorms, especially during the late night and morning
hours. Storms would produce locally higher winds and seas. Areal
coverage should diminish starting Saturday with only scattered
storms Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  87  73  90 /  30  90  20  70
BTR  76  86  75  91 /  50  90  20  70
ASD  75  88  74  91 /  50  80  20  70
MSY  78  89  78  92 /  50  90  20  80
GPT  78  88  78  91 /  60  80  30  70
PQL  76  88  75  92 /  60  80  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW