255
FXUS64 KLIX 181943
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
243 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Upper ridging over the northern Gulf Coast states and Gulf. Upper
troughing extends from western Ontario to southern California,
with another ridge over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface,
high pressure was off the Carolina coast, and over the Canadian
Rockies. Low pressure was over Wisconsin with a cold front to the
Texas Panhandle. This was producing low level southerly flow
across the area. Away from immediate coastal areas (upper 70s),
temperatures were in the lower and middle 80s with dew points in
the 60s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

The upper ridging will progress eastward to the Georgia coast by
Sunday morning with the southern portion of the upper trough
extending from the Dakotas to New Mexico at that time.
Precipitable water values won`t change much through Saturday
night, remaining around 1 inch, with most of that below 900 mb.
That may produce a bit more cloud cover, especially during the
late night and morning hours, but no significant precipitation is
expected. NBM temperature guidance is pretty close to the
GFS/ECMWF numbers, and is accepted. We`ll be above normal for mid
to late April, but with a fair amount of wind, it won`t be
oppressive for outdoor activities.

Current forecast sustained winds will generally be in the 15 to 20
mph range for Saturday with some gusts to close to 30 mph. That
will be short of our advisory criteria. While we are in a
prolonged period of southerly winds, current guidance indicates
water levels should be short of what would cause coastal flooding
issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Upper ridging off the Georgia and Florida coasts will remain in
place early next week, although the axis will re-orient more
northeast-southwest. The southern end of the trough over New
Mexico will lift northeastward to the western Great Lakes by
Monday night with the mid level flow across the local area
becoming more zonal or at least west-southwesterly for much of the
workweek next week. We won`t have an actual frontal passage across
the area during the long term portion of the forecast, but
conditions are likely to be somewhat more favorable for the
development of showers and thunderstorms. This would be mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours from Monday into midweek.

Shear profiles are rather lacking on forecast soundings across the
area, so at this time, severe weather doesn`t appear to be a major
threat locally, with the main concern to our northwest and north,
generally north of Interstate 20. Similarly, forecast moisture
levels are expected to be from the 50th to 75th percentile at
best, climatologically, so any heavy rain concerns will also be
north and west of the area.

Little day to day change in temperatures, both highs and lows,
with no need to make significant changes to NBM values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Cloud bases are lifting, with most between FL020 and FL030 at
midday. Satellite indicates that in most areas clouds are only
scattered and not enough to constitute a ceiling. The exception at
this point is KGPT, with an MVFR ceiling. As onshore flow becomes
more fully developed this afternoon, expect KGPT to scatter out as
well. Beyond sunset, as wind field weakens somewhat, moisture
trapped under an inversion near 925 mb will produce MVFR ceilings,
which could lower to IFR for several hours around sunrise
Saturday. Conditions on Saturday should be almost a carbon copy of
today, with ceilings lifting through MVFR to VFR during the mid to
late morning hours. Sustained winds during the daytime hours will
likely increase again to 15 to 18 knots out of the southeast or
south, with occasional gusts to 25 to 28 knots, diminishing toward
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Expect several periods where winds in marine areas could approach
20 knots over the next couple of days, especially over the western
waters. However, no indications of any prolonged periods where
wind conditions would justify a Small Craft Advisory. With a
prolonged persistent southerly fetch, seas may necessitate
advisories by about Sunday over the open waters. That would be
most likely over the western open waters. Will continue to monitor
over the next day or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  69  86  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  83  68  83 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  71  84  71  83 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  68  80  68  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  65  82  65  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW