043
FXUS64 KLIX 112340
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Moderate to High confidence in showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon and tonight, with localized flooding and a few strong
  to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out Tuesday as ridging builds into the
  area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently monitoring the convective complex moving over the
southeast LA Coast including portions of the southshore. This has
dropped an inch or two of rain already across the immediate coast
with some localized minor flooding taking shape in Grand Isle.
This is the first area of precip to monitor. The second is
forecast to develop in a few hours along the I10/12 corridor. This
will be the best chance for both an isolated severe storm or two
and hydro concerns. It appears New Orleans has escaped the
heaviest rain, which is good to avoid a hydro primer. However, if
a line of convection sets up and sits over town, hydro issues will
quickly develop with higher rates. Baton Rouge, same can be said
there especially considering they have been the "big winner" in
terms of rainfall totals over the last week or so. Additionally,
any additional heavy rainfall may have impact on local rivers as
well. As for watch headlines...uncertainty in amounts and
locations will preclude the issuance. However, WPC is becoming a
bit more confident upgrading the marginal ERO to a slight with a
slightly higher confidence in flash flooding along the I10
corridor.

As the trough upstream finally begins to spread east over the
region, the surface front that is currently stalled near BTR to
MCB will finally push through the region, which will clear most of
the precip out of the area. The GFS wants to hang onto clouds and
maybe precip a bit longer on Tuesday. Went with the cloudier
solution, but with much drier air moving into the region as the
upper levels transition to a dry northwest flow, think precip will
be a bit harder to materialize.

Upper heights begin to increase going into Tuesday and especially
Wednesday as a ridge builds over Texas. This will help promote a
warming trend...not to mention the lower rain chances will also
allow us to warm during the day. Additionally, surface winds will
drop as high pressure moves into the region. Finally, after
several active days in the last week, most of the short term
beyond the near term will be dry and rather benign outside of
warmer temperatures during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The long term suggests an overall pattern change with upper level
flow becoming more zonal and as surface high pressure spreads east
of the region, expect a moderate return flow to develop going into
the weekend. This will continue to promote a warming and more
humid trend going into the weekend. Globals are mostly dry with
little QPF signal, but I cannot rule out a stray shower within the
moderate onshore flow. Any rogue shower, however, should be the
exception rather than the rule and mostly be confined to the
coastal locations where frictional convergence is maximized.
Otherwise, warmer conditions will continue into the start of next
week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Ongoing convection will continue to impact BTR and HDC through 03z
with IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings. This convection is
related to a slow moving front passing through the area tonight,
but will remain south of MCB which is now to the north of the
frontal boundary. Only light rain and ceilings of 500 to 1000 feet
are anticipated at MCB tonight. The area of thunderstorms
currently over BTR and HDC will gradually shift to the east and
impact HUM, MSY, NEW, and ASD between 04z and 10z tonight. GPT
will see these thunderstorms pass through between 05z and 11z.
Periods of reduced visibilities down to around 1 mile due to
heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main issue with the
thunderstorms. Outside of the storms, prevailing MVFR ceilings of
1500 to 2000 feet can be expected at these terminals through
tomorrow afternoon before drier air moves in and clears the cloud
cover out tomorrow evening. PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist overnight.
Anticipating at least one or two more rounds of storms through this
afternoon and into tonight with some strong to severe storms
possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts
greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move
into the waters Monday night, bringing moderate offshore winds
through Tuesday before turning onshore again. Otherwise, marine
conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather
benign. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF