Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
516 FXUS64 KLIX 020836 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An upper trough extended from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf on Tuesday evening, with ridging across the southern and central Plains States. The airmass locally remained rather moist, with precipitable water values near or above 2 inches, which is around the 90th percentile climatologically. Isolated convection lingered a little bit later than previous nights, but most had dissipated by 11 PM CDT. The upper trough should continue to help push a somewhat drier airmass into the area today, but it won`t be very noticeable at the surface, with little or no lowering of dew points. In fact, some of the latest guidance is indicating that dew points may not fall off all that much on Thursday. One more day of scattered convection looks to be on tap before the forecast soundings become less conducive for storms on Thursday. The threat for severe weather and/or excessive rainfall is low, but not zero, as we saw on the Mississippi coast Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures likely to reach 90 to 95 today and mid 90s for much of the area on Thursday. We`ll probably fall just short of Heat Advisory, but worth monitoring, especially over the western half . of the area. (RW) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The long term begins with much lower POPs and hotter conditions developing. Before that, on Thursday evening we`ll need to watch what appears to be an upper level short wave moving southeast around the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge. This could allow convection Thursday night to linger around a bit later. Going into the holiday weekend, as stated above, the pattern does continue to support limited coverage afternoon convection and much warmer temperatures. Dewpoints are still on the "radar" if you will (not literally), as they will determine the need for heat headlines for a fairly sensitive time as folks are out and about enjoying the weekend. As of now, continue to advertise lower dewpoints with mixing of some drier air aloft down toward the surface, which should keep heat index values on the lower side. Still, 100-105F heat index values are uncomfortable, but just shy of criteria. The pattern changes once again as an upper level weakness moves westward across the northern Gulf later in the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Surface flow will eventually evolve from a warm northeasterly flow to a return southerly flow helping pump more moisture rich air into the region. With ample low level moisture and the upper level support, convection will become more numerous in time during max heating. Toward the end of the cycle the upper weakness shifts further west allowing for a H5 594 ridge to build in from the northeast going into midweek, which once again increases temps and limits rainfall just a bit. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Coverage of convection today will be a bit less, however, not zero. Covered convection potential with PROBs. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected outside of potential low VIS for HUM and MCB. Winds will remain light southerly, but may be higher in and around storms. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Winds are expected to maintain a primarily offshore component for the next several days, until perhaps Sunday, before onshore flow returns. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots. The threat of thunderstorms should diminish somewhat, but not entirely, over the open waters over the next several days. Beyond this afternoon, the threat should diminish considerably over the lakes and sounds until about Sunday. (RW) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 71 93 70 / 20 0 10 0 BTR 93 76 94 75 / 20 10 20 10 ASD 93 73 94 72 / 30 10 10 0 MSY 93 80 94 80 / 40 10 30 10 GPT 92 74 93 73 / 40 10 10 0 PQL 92 72 94 70 / 40 10 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW