Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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516
FXUS64 KLIX 020836
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
336 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An upper trough extended from the Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf on
Tuesday evening, with ridging across the southern and central Plains
States. The airmass locally remained rather moist, with precipitable
water values near or above 2 inches, which is around the 90th
percentile climatologically. Isolated convection lingered a little
bit later than previous nights, but most had dissipated by 11 PM
CDT.

The upper trough should continue to help push a somewhat drier
airmass into the area today, but it won`t be very noticeable at the
surface, with little or no lowering of dew points. In fact, some of
the latest guidance is indicating that dew points may not fall off
all that much on Thursday. One more day of scattered convection
looks to be on tap before the forecast soundings become less
conducive for storms on Thursday. The threat for severe weather
and/or excessive rainfall is low, but not zero, as we saw on the
Mississippi coast Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures likely to reach 90 to 95 today and mid 90s for
much of the area on Thursday. We`ll probably fall just short of Heat
Advisory, but worth monitoring, especially over the western half .
of the area. (RW)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The long term begins with much lower POPs and hotter conditions
developing. Before that, on Thursday evening we`ll need to watch
what appears to be an upper level short wave moving southeast
around the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge. This could allow
convection Thursday night to linger around a bit later.

Going into the holiday weekend, as stated above, the pattern does
continue to support limited coverage afternoon convection and
much warmer temperatures. Dewpoints are still on the "radar" if
you will (not literally), as they will determine the need for heat
headlines for a fairly sensitive time as folks are out and about
enjoying the weekend. As of now, continue to advertise lower
dewpoints with mixing of some drier air aloft down toward the
surface, which should keep heat index values on the lower side.
Still, 100-105F heat index values are uncomfortable, but just shy
of criteria.

The pattern changes once again as an upper level weakness moves
westward across the northern Gulf later in the weekend and into
the start of the new workweek. Surface flow will eventually evolve
from a warm northeasterly flow to a return southerly flow helping
pump more moisture rich air into the region. With ample low level
moisture and the upper level support, convection will become more
numerous in time during max heating. Toward the end of the cycle
the upper weakness shifts further west allowing for a H5 594 ridge
to build in from the northeast going into midweek, which once
again increases temps and limits rainfall just a bit. (Frye)


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Coverage of convection today will be a bit less, however, not
zero. Covered convection potential with PROBs. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected outside of potential low VIS for HUM and MCB.
Winds will remain light southerly, but may be higher in and around
storms. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Winds are expected to maintain a primarily offshore component for
the next several days, until perhaps Sunday, before onshore flow
returns.  Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots. The
threat of thunderstorms should diminish somewhat, but not entirely,
over the open waters over the next several days. Beyond this
afternoon, the threat should diminish considerably over the lakes
and sounds until about Sunday. (RW)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  93  70 /  20   0  10   0
BTR  93  76  94  75 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  73  94  72 /  30  10  10   0
MSY  93  80  94  80 /  40  10  30  10
GPT  92  74  93  73 /  40  10  10   0
PQL  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW