383
FXUS64 KLIX 192018
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
318 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Benign conditions remain in place across the region as deep layer
ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern. This will be
the case through the entire short term period. The end result will
be continued subsidence, a lack of cloud development, low
dewpoints and dry air, and near average temperatures. Model spread
in terms of temperatures is very low, so there were no changes
made from the deterministic NBM output other than to account for
any localized drainage issues along the Pearl and Pascagoula River
basins. The threat of coastal flooding has also diminished and is
now not expected to be an issue during high tide tonight and
tomorrow night. This is largely due to the wind field being both
weaker and more east- northeasterly than previously expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A series of weak shortwave features moving through the Midwestern
states will help to weaken the mid to upper level ridge axis and
shift it more westward toward Texas for the mid to latter portion
of the week. However, strong ridging will remain in place in the
low levels, and a west-northwest flow regime aloft will prohibit
the return of any deeper moisture. Thus, mainly clear skies, low
dewpoints, and a gradual warming trend with temperatures rising
around 5 degrees above average due to the strength of the ridge
axis to the west will be the rule through the entire extended
period. Temperature spread between the various models remains
small in the long term period, and the deterministic NBM was once
again used for the temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

High pressure over the area will continue to bring VFR conditions
to all of the terminals through the end of the forecast period.
Winds will be from the east and northeast and remain light to
moderate. PG
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Winds and seas remain elevated today across most of the coastal
waters due to the interaction between a strong surface high
centered to the north and Tropical Storm Nadine that has now made
landfall in Belize. As the tropical storm weakens and dissipates
tomorrow and Monday, the pressure gradient over the Gulf will
weaken. This will result in gradually lowering wind speeds and
decreasing seas, but small craft advisory conditions will remain
in place for the open Gulf waters through tomorrow night before
improving on Monday. High pressure will then become more centered
over the waters on Tuesday with lighter winds and seas dropping
below 3 feet for the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  54  81  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  51  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  63  78  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  51  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ557.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ552-555-570-
     572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG