447
FXUS64 KLIX 221004
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Overall synoptic picture is upper trough off the west coast and one
over the NE with an upper high over much of the nation. These
features are not moving much but will eventually. The cool dry air
will continue to filter into the area today but as a sfc high moves
over the area, this will stop by Saturday. Sat night will still be
cool but moderating temps will begin to add degrees to each days
highs and lows over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The sfc high will move east bringing return flow back to the area
starting Sunday. This will begin to warm the area through Monday.
Another short wave will move down the back side of the NE trough
over the weekend. This will help bring another cold front toward the
area by Tue. But as this front nears, it will feel the tug of the
west coast upper trough becoming progressive. The sfc front will
stall close or over the area by late Tue. With not much forcing, it
will also cause sh/ts on the southern end of the front to weaken and
dissipate. But there could be a few that help raise rain chances for
Tue. This could be more of a fog issue with this stalling front. The
Tue front will get yanked back north as the next stronger cold front
moves toward the area. This front should be near or moving through
toward the end of next week. We will need to get closer to this
fronts timing to define any strength and duration of storms with
this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Marine flags will lower today as winds ease. A sfc high will center
itself over the northern gulf coast over the weekend before moving
east Sunday bringing return flow back to all marine areas. Winds
should remain in the 10-15kt range by the start of the week as a new
cold front moves closer to the area. This front is expected to stall
along or near the coast Tue before moving back north ahead of the
next stronger cold front that should visit toward the end of the
week. Southerly winds should remain, once they set in, until this
late week front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  33  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  66  39  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  64  37  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  64  46  67  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  64  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  36  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE