731
FXUS64 KLIX 041737
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Ongoing isolated to scattered convection will wane during the
as we move into the late afternoon and evening hours in response
to the loss instability associated with daytime heating. Warm
and humid conditions will persist overnight with overnight lows
generally forecast in the low to mid 70s, which is near to
slightly above normal depending on the location.

Tomorrow will see conditions similar today, though the convective
focus should shift more into the southern half of the area rather
than the southwestern half. Either way, convection is generally
forecast to be isolated to widely scattered and won`t provide
much in the way of relief from the afternoon heat. Thankfully
daytime heating should promote vertical mixing and a slight
reduction in afternoon dewpoints, keeping heat index values hot
but not oppressive. Current forecast calls for afternoon heat
index values to peak in the 100 to 105 degree range most places,
which is a few degrees shy of heat advisory criteria and on par
with values we would normally see this time of year. That being
said, people with outdoor plans should still take precautions
against heat- related illnesses by staying hydrated and taking
breaks in the shade or air conditioning to cool off. Once again,
convection should wane by or shortly after sunset, and another
warm night is on tap with overnight lows only falling into the mid
to upper 70s most places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Beginning Sunday, the pattern will change, resulting in more
active weather. The upper ridge over the middle Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys will break down as High pressure builds into the
southwestern CONUS with a second high building over the western
Atlantic. This will put the local area in the weakness between
thew two ridges as several weak shortwaves pass well to the north
of the local area.

With onshore winds bringing moisture back into the area from the
Gulf, expect an increase in afternoon shower and thunderstorm
coverage. Should see scattered to numerous daily showers and
storms with a typical summertime diurnal pattern to convection.
Convection should be mostly limited to the Gulf waters and coastal
areas overnight, becoming more numerous over land areas during the
late morning and afternoon hours, before dissipating around
sunset.

That being said, will be carrying high end chance to likely POPs
each day. This has little correlation to the amounts of rain
forecast though. As a general area average rainfall totals over
the next 7 days should be less than 2 inches. However, as is the
case with summertime thunderstorms, localized totals could be
substantially higher, with some thunderstorms possibly producing
1-2 inches in a relatively short period of time as they pass over
any given location.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of any
impacts from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have
included PROB30 groups at HUM, MSY and NEW to account for this
potential. Elsewhere, impacts cannot be ruled out, but
probability is too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. Any
lingering convection should dissipate around sunset as daytime
instability wanes. Expect similar conditions Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of any
localized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow will
persist through tomorrow be

Broad high pressure is still dominating the Gulf and is centered
to the south. This is leading to generally light offshore flow
which will remain in place through Saturday before becoming a
little more chaotic and dominated by diurnal fluctuations heading
into next week. Convection will be a little more sparse this
morning and through Saturday but could increase and increase
significantly Sunday morning with numerous storms over the coastal
waters overnight each night through much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  95  72  93 /   0  10  10  50
BTR  74  96  75  94 /  10  20  10  60
ASD  71  94  72  93 /  10  20  20  50
MSY  78  95  80  93 /  10  20  10  70
GPT  74  93  74  91 /  10  30  20  50
PQL  72  94  72  92 /   0  30  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM