Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
546 FXUS64 KLIX 102322 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 - Heat index values will climb to between 100 and 105 degrees each day through the middle of next week. - A weak cold front will slip into the area by the middle of next week leading to higher shower and thunderstorm chances. The threat of localized flooding will also increase. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A dry and stable airmass will remain over the area through tomorrow as a broad mid to upper level ridge sits over the Gulf South. PWATS will range from 1.3 to 1.5 inches and mid-level lapse rates will be less than 5.0C/km. These dry and stable conditions will greatly limit overall convective potential across the region and this is reflected by low PoP values of 10 to 20 percent in the forecast for both today and tomorrow. Temperatures will also be warm beneath this upper level ridge with daytime highs easily rising into the low to mid 90s away from the coast and the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coast. Conditions will gradually moisten as we move into Friday and Saturday. PWATS will rise to around 1.75 inches, or near average, on Friday and around 1.8 to 1.9 inches by Saturday as more mid- level moisture moves in from the Gulf. Lapse rates will also slightly improve to above 5.0C/km and MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/KG. This will allow for a more typical Summer convective pattern to develop with a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms firing up in the afternoon hours during peak heating. Temperatures will remain very warm with highs rising to similar values as those seen on Thursday. Heat index values will rise to between 100 and 105 each afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Sunday will see similar conditions to those observed in the short term period as the overall pattern will be little changed. PWATS will remain near average and MLCAPE will climb to around 1000 J/KG in the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will once again develop in the afternoon hours as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. Heat index readings will remain elevated between 100 and 105 degrees, but look to remain below heat advisory levels. As we move into Monday and Tuesday, the combination of increasing upper level forcing moving into the area as the upper level ridge shifts to the east and a deepening longwave trough axis digs into the southern Plains and a plume of deeper tropical moisture feeding in from the Gulf will support higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures. PWATS will rise to around 2 inches on Monday and further increase to 2.25 inches by Tuesday. These values on Tuesday are near the daily max. Monday will be a more typical Summer day with scattered to numerous diurnally forced convection firing up in the late morning and afternoon hours. A few locally heavy downpours could occur with these storms. As a weakening frontal boundary slides into the area on Tuesday, the front could serve as a focusing mechanism for training or back- building thunderstorms over localized areas within the region. Given the high precipitable water values in place and exceedingly warm 500mb temperatures of around -5C, highly efficient rainfall processes will occur. This could lead to hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour within the strongest storms. For locations that experience training thunderstorms, these high rainfall rates will combine with already saturated soils to induce additional flash flooding concerns for Tuesday and likely Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals at forecast issuance time, and likely to remain so for most or all night. One exception might be fog development at KMCB around sunrise, but even there, the best forecast looks to be MVFR (3-5SM). Daytime cumulus likely to remain scattered in coverage, with most cloud bases at or above FL030. && .MARINE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida through the weekend and into early next week. A persistent south-southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots can be expected across the coastal waters through early next week. These winds will produce seas of 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf waters and 1 to 2 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...RW MARINE...PG