875
FXUS64 KLIX 141136
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
636 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper low/trough extended from eastern Kentucky to Florida this
morning with another trough from Montana into California. Upper
ridging was along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, low
pressure was centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle with a warm
front eastward and a dry line southward. Locally, skies were clear
to partly cloudy at 3 AM CDT with temperatures between 70 and 75
with light south winds.

Mid level ridging will build into the western Gulf and the lower
Mississippi River Valley through Thursday. Onshore winds will
continue to pump warm and moist air into the area. No significant
chance for precipitation through Thursday. High temperatures today
should be at least as warm as on Tuesday, in the middle and upper
80s, but wouldn`t rule out 1 or 2 spots touching 90. Forecast
soundings would indicate that highs Thursday should be about 3
degrees warmer, which should put most areas in the lower 90s. This
would be the first 90 degree days of the season for much of the
area. Overnight lows tonight should be similar to this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Upper ridging becomes centered over the Gulf Friday and remains
there through most or all of next week. A northern stream
shortwave flattens it somewhat over the lower Mississippi River
Valley on Saturday, and again around the middle of next week. That
could push a frontal boundary far enough southward to potentially
produce isolated showers or storms over southwest Mississippi
Saturday afternoon, but that is pretty much the only chance of
precipitation across our area of responsibility over the next 7
days.

Temperature-wise...welcome to summer. Above normal temperatures
are expected through the period with highs in the lower 90s across
most of the area away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the 70s. Those readings are generally 5 to 8
degrees above normal, and there really wasn`t a good reason to
make significant changes to the NBM temperature forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Patches of ceilings around FL015 should mix out or lift to FL030
or above by mid-morning at all terminals. Most of the afternoon
will see VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds are likely to be
gusty at most terminals with sustained winds around 15 knots and
gusts to 22 to 25 knots. Those winds should relax somewhat around
sunset but not go completely calm. MVFR to IFR ceilings will again
be possible between about 08z and 14z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Will keep the Small Craft Advisory and Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines in place over the western waters through 18z
today. May need another round of SCEC headlines overnight tonight
into Thursday. For most of the remainder of the forecast period,
winds should generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range, give or take
a couple knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  68  91  70 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  89  71  91  74 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  88  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  88  73  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  84  72  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  84  69  86  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ550-
     570.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW