061
FXUS64 KLIX 212324
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
524 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Cool weather and low humidities are still the hot topic.
Temperatures are actually a few degrees below normal for this
time of year. At the H5 level a strong low pressure system and
attendant trough are still over the east coast with complementary
ridging over the plains, combining to bring northwest flow and CAA
into our area. In our area with this pattern, we tend to see the
lowest temperatures on the second or third nights after a frontal
passage; this is what`s happening now and we expect temperatures
in the mid 30s and approaching/touching freezing in some areas.
McComb, being our northernmost reference location and areas in the
Pearl and Pascagoula River basins where cold air drainage occurs
are the obvious places. Frost is not out of the question in areas
early Friday and Saturday mornings north of the I-10/12. To
account for model biases, some cooler members of the NBM are being
massaged into the temperature grids. At the surface winds are
still fairly high, but should start to decrease into tomorrow
morning. /Schlotz/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 132 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Moving into the later weekend and next week, we see the surface
high pressure moving on to the east and a flattening of the H5
ridging to an almost zonal flow. This will bring 1) return flow
out of Gulf air and combined with some weak impulses in the mean
flow, an associated increase in rain chances, and 2) an increase
in temperatures.

Looking toward the Thanksgiving holiday, there is some variability
in model guidance but we are beginning to look at a possibility
of thunderstorms and perhaps even a risk of severe weather.
/Schlotz/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will
generally be light overnight except for at KNEW where gusts around
or just over 20kts will continue due to mixing over the relatively
warm lake waters. Expect winds to be generally in the 8-12kt
range tomorrow during daylight hours as a reinforcing high builds
into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Winds are still fairly strong out of the north to northwest. Small
Craft headlines are in place and have been extended by 6 hours
through noon Friday to account for a reinforcing cold front that
will help to keep the winds up through tomorrow morning. High
pressure should finally settle in helping to relax winds some
tomorrow afternoon or evening allowing headlines to finally drop
off. High pressure slides east late Saturday with return flow
slowly setting back up. /Schlotz/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  40  65  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  45  63  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  39  63  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  33  66  34  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DS