064
FXUS64 KLIX 031804
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
104 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Another warm and breezy day today across the CWFA. We remain stuck
between a strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
and low pressure over the high plains, which is helping generate a
moderate return flow across the region. Aloft, a fairly robust
(593dam) H5 ridge will try to retrograde a bit closer to us today.
This puts our region in southwest flow, which a frontal boundary
is stalled within across the mid south region. The front at least
in the short term doesn`t get close enough to have an impact on
us locally, however, in the very rich return flow, we may see a
few showers develop, especially on Friday as a subtle impulse
moves across the region during the afternoon hours.

The moderate surface flow will continue to pile water along the
southeast facing shores as well as the tidal lakes. The flow will
gradually decrease somewhat with time (although not much) and
tide levels will be coming down post Spring Tide. Although tides
are slightly lowering each cycle, the continued fetch will
compensate for the decrease leading to minor coastal flooding and
the need for a Coastal Flood Advisory. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Going into the weekend the broad scale trough out across the
western tier finally begins to move east weakening the upper level
ridge across the western Atlantic. This will finally set the
stalled front from the Red River Valley to the Ohio Valley in
motion. Similar to Friday within the active southwesterly flow
there is a weak impulse that moves over during the day Saturday
leading to a nonzero chance of showers and storms across the
region. However, the main event will arrive late Saturday and
early Sunday with the frontal boundary moving through. Still
watching for the potential for strong to severe storms with this
feature. There will be at least some modest instability around
along with decent shear. However, much of the upper support is
displaced to our north and west as well as the timing is a bit of
a limiting factor. That said, southwest MS and along the
Atchafalaya will be closer to the better upper support and this
is where the higher severe probs will reside.

Globals still show the front moving through Sunday morning.
However, the GFS and ECM still struggle with what to do with the
front once it is largely through our area. The ECM is still the
least progressive with the feature and lingers rain chances
through Monday. The GFS has slowed on it`s forward progression a
bit over the last few cycles so kept mid-range POPs generally
across the southeast half of the forecast area. Behind the front
expect much cooler temperatures at least for a couple of days,
which will be quite noticeable after near record heat early in the
period.

As for early in the period, minor coastal flooding will remain
possible with the strong southerly or southeasterly fetch over
the Gulf. Tides will continue to gradually drop, however, with
near continuous southerly flow, water will continue to pile up
along southeast facing shores and also into the tidal lakes. Once
the front pushes through the overall threat will decrease, but
remember it will take some time for the excess to drain from the
lakes. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Again the biggest problem for the TAFs is the low cigs. MVFR cigs
are impacting most terminals with BTR and MCB begin the lone
terminals in VFR while GPT is in LIFR right now with gis around
900ft. All sites will continue to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR
as breaks in the clouds cover will lead to this but overnight
again low cigs will develop across the area again. GPT may
continue to see IFR cigs and possibly MVFR vsbys during the 08 to
14z time frame. Winds will slack off some overnight but we will
remian breezy and through tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing across the local waters
this morning. This will continue through today and into the
weekend. There may be a brief and modest improvement across the
eastern waters as pressure gradient will focus across the western
tier. Cautionary headlines will likely be needed for those zones
and tidal lakes. However, again this will be brief as winds and
seas build again as a cold front moves closer to the region late
Saturday and into Sunday. Behind the front, winds shift to a more
northwest direction and weaken just a bit along the front.
However, pressure gradient will build back as the front moves
downstream leading to additional cautionary headlines or SCAs to
start the new workweek. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  86  71  84 /   0  40  10  70
BTR  76  89  74  87 /   0  20  10  60
ASD  77  84  72  86 /   0  20  10  40
MSY  78  86  74  86 /   0  20   0  30
GPT  74  80  71  80 /  10  20   0  40
PQL  74  81  69  82 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-
     066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-557-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-557-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ552-555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RDF