497
FXUS64 KLIX 222357
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
557 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A fairly robust H5 shortwave continues to move east over the
Tennessee River Valley this afternoon. Another small impulse
within the progressive flow aloft has helped generate some very
light shower activity...although most of which has been
evaporating before reaching the ground due to very dry conditions
just off the deck, as seen in the 12z local RAOB. Going into this
evening and overnight a stronger upper level trough will move east
out of New Mexico and into Texas. At the same time, a surface
trough/low will continue to organize east of the mouth of the Rio
Grande. This feature will strengthen as the upper level impulse
continues to spread downstream. Widespread shower activity is
anticipated to develop late tonight and spread into the region
through Sunday morning as isentropic upglide increase north of the
system. Rainfall rates at this juncture do not seem to be very
impressive, but QPF values of 1-2" total will be possible with the
steady soaking rainfall. Highest totals will remain along and
south of the I10 corridor.

As Sunday evening and overnight rolls around, the surface feature
will continue to move downstream and eventually into Florida.
Behind the system an overall pattern shift takes place with a dry
northwest flow aloft setting up over the region. Temperatures
through the short term will remain below average for this time of
year, but overnight lows will not be nearly as cold as days passed
with clouds lingering. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure will be in control going into the start of the new
workweek. Dry northwesterly flow remains overhead and with some
heights increasing we will even start to see temperatures
gradually warm on Monday and by Tuesday upper 60s and lower 70s
will be felt across much of the region...away from the water. The
overall pattern doesn`t really change much from early to midweek.
It will mostly be a temperature forecast up until Friday. At that
point, globals have finally come around in terms of agreement (GFS
finally has the frontal boundary). Although QPF signal within the
globals is fairly light, this would be the next measurable rain
chance. As for temperatures to finish up the last few days of the
month, generally around average even behind the front late in the
week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mostly VFR conditions at forecast issuance time, although KMCB
reporting MVFR ceilings. This evening should primarily remain VFR,
but as -RA moves into the area over the next 6 hours, conditions
will gradually deteriorate with IFR expected to become widespread
prior to sunrise. These conditions are expected to continue for
most or all day Sunday, with little, if any improvement until
perhaps mid-morning Monday. While current forecast doesn`t
explicitly carry TSRA for the daytime hours Sunday, the threat is
non-zero, especially at KHUM/KNEW/KMSY. Those terminals could also
see a few wind gusts to 20-25 knots during the afternoon hours,
but should not be frequent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

As a surface low moves east away from the lower TX Coast, winds
and seas will build, especially beyond 20nm. SCA and cautionary
headlines will become necessary by early Sunday. Conditions will
begin to improve going into the start of the new workweek as
surface high pressure spreads into the region allowing winds to
decrease across the local waters. Conditions will remain favorable
at least until late next week as a weak frontal boundary is
expected to move through increasing winds and seas once again.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  38  49  39  65 /  50  90  30   0
BTR  43  52  43  67 /  80  90  30   0
ASD  41  54  44  66 /  50  90  50   0
MSY  46  56  48  63 /  70 100  50   0
GPT  41  51  43  64 /  40  90  70  10
PQL  40  55  44  66 /  20  90  70  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF