769
FXUS64 KLIX 120853
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

It may not seem like it, but there is a lot going on in the weather
department. For the system that will be moving through Saturday,
we need to look over the midpac to see where the energy is that
will support the weather that will impact our area. This brings us
back to the short term to see how this is being computed in the
latest model runs. The issue is that there are no land based upper
air samples of this area, but there are plenty of satellite
samples, and since deep cloud cover is not widespread, there is
some good satellite sampling occurring with this system. The area
is located with a strong cold front just west of 180W. The H3 jet
is actually buckled in two locations, this is just one of them.
The other will be moving inland to the Cali coast today. This is
the one that will be moving rapidly across the country today and
Thu. We will see the first sfc low develop late today in response
to this upper trough over the Red River area and sh/ts will
rapidly light up in the Texarkana region around sunset today.
These storms will move rapidly east. But there is not a lot of
support to the south of the sfc low, so not expecting much down
this way outside of some showers and won`t rule out a clap of
thunder. But the sfc low and its frontal boundary will be able to
shift winds around from almost due south to SW late tonight into
Thu. The thermal boundary remains back to the west and is stalled.
Looking at soundings for Thu into Thu night, a strong low level
sub inversion sets up Thu night and a strong frontal inversion
below that to the sfc. This is a very good fog signal for Thu
night/Fri morning. The SW winds are over a deep fetch of the
western gulf and that air is modifying fast with dew pts already
in the 60s, so the source air will be from the western and
southern gulf where it should be primed. A stalled boundary will
be located to our west and the only thing we will need to compute
will be is this going to be advective or radiational. At the
moment, it looks advective so cloud cover would not matter but we
will need some winds to remain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

The second upper trough is the one that we will be looking at for
our weather Sat. The system moving through tonight into Wed will
bring deeper moisture but will not clear it to our west as the next
strong upper H3 trough comes in. It is hard to see at the moment,
but this second upper trough is the one that brings a front into the
entire Miss River Valley later in the day Fri and there could be
some strong/severe storms with this front even as far south as
central LA by Fri afternoon/evening. This are will rapidly move NE
as we watch an even stronger H3 pulse drop through the base of the
upper trough. This is the one that produces some strong/severe
storms even as far south as our area. The stongest dynamics will be
located just north of the area, but they will be strong enough here
to cause issues as well. This area of storms will develop rapidly
Sat morning and we should see the first of this develop from near
Houston into Alexandria around or just before daylight Sat. This
area will continue to explode NE through the morning. Bulk shear
vectors are parallel to the vertical trough axis, so this looks to
develop at first as a line. The line of storms will be slow to move
east at first due to the strong winds at H3 rounding the base of the
trough causing the upper trough to temporarily stand(stall) for
about 6 hours maybe less during the morning. There looks to be a
large are of individual cells that develop ahead of the main line as
well and all of this area will be sfc based and unstable the whole
day Sat. This means that both areas will need to be watched the
entire day until fropa Sat evening. There are still some things to
work out like timing and how much of this activity actually becomes
severe over our area instead of using it for evolving into severe
storms as it moves north(this is something we have given the name
"launching pad"), but confidence is building in this event occurring
and at least some severe storms impacting our area. The timing at
the moment looks to be throughout much of the day Sat as some
prefrontal storms could start developing around daylight over the NW
areas and progress eastward during the day. The main boundary starts
moving through the area just after noon and should do so at a rapid
pace. The cold front moves out Sat evening and cleans the area
bringing some very nice conditions for Sunday. Return flow begins
again late Monday ahead of the next frontal system expected
somewhere from mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR through for daylight hours. IFR cigs are possible after midnight
tonight for northern sites while terminals near the coast whould be
a mix of VFR and MVFR cigs. Vis could be reduced at ASD tonight but
most should be VFR to MVFR vis.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

S to SW winds will hold through Thu at 15kt or less. Winds will move
from SW to S Fri and begin to rise to around 20kt by late Fri and
hold there until late Sat with a frontal passage brings winds around
to the NW at 15kt through Sun and a bit stonger to around 20kt Sun
night into Mon morning. Winds will weaken Mon and shift around to
southerly by late in the day rising to around 15kt by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  58  82  57 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  79  60  84  60 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  79  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  72  60  76  60 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  75  59  79  60 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE