Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
404 FXUS64 KLIX 251036 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 536 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 532 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 - Impactful heat conditions will persist well into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Upper ridging centered over the Four Corners area with an extension southeastward into east Texas and Louisiana. There was a weak shortwave in the Memphis area that didn`t have much more than some mid and high level clouds associated with it. At the surface, high pressure was centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Quite a bit of high cloud cover across the local area at midnight with temperatures mainly upper 70s and lower 80s. The upper ridge isn`t really going anywhere through Tuesday. While northern stream shortwaves will be dropping into the New England trough, none of them will be close enough to produce any organized convection in our area. Forecast precipitable water values are expected to remain near or below the 25th percentile, and even below the 10th at some points, today and Sunday, and only near the 50th Monday and Tuesday. That would lead to just about no convection today and tomorrow, and only isolated Monday and Tuesday around the time of max heating. Highs today and Sunday will be in the mid 90s in most areas. We should be able to get away without needing a Heat Advisory today, as current guidance keeps our heat indices just below our 108F criteria except for very limited locations. Tomorrow is likely to be very similar to today. Monday and Tuesday high temperatures do appear to be a couple degrees warmer, putting most areas into the upper 90s. Heat index values are also a couple degrees higher, so we`ll likely need an advisory Monday and Tuesday, with some potential they top out in the 110-115 range. That`s more along the lines of Extreme Heat Warning (113F criteria). We`d issue those sometime during the day on Sunday if it looks like we`ll need them. Overnight lows will be in the 70s, with some potential that the New Orleans area remains above 80F on a few nights. Heat stress is cumulative, so the longer we go with those conditions, the incidence count will increase. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Increasing subsidence and somewhat lower deep-layer moisture should continue to reduce afternoon rain chances. However, a few pop up afternoon showers and storms will remain possible along areas of localized lift along the sea breeze, lake breeze, and any remnant outflow boundaries as we kick off the work week. Heat will remain the primary concern to start the week. High temps should generally reach the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could produce afternoon heat indices between 100 and 110, potentially requiring additional heat headlines. The hottest days in the forecast period are Monday through Wednesday with heat indices upwards of 115 possible. However, even though NBM deterministic guidance has cooled some it remains higher than most of the other deterministic and ensemble-based model guidance so this may still be overzealous. This is especially true given that it appears that the upper-ridge anchored over the SW-central CONUS could erode as a trough digs into the SE CONUS mid-late week. Eroding the ridge could provide some slight reprieve to the heat and also allow afternoon storm chances to increase back toward climatological norms. This decreases confidence in dangerous heat in the forecast we get into the Wednesday through Friday time period, especially if we get a longwave east coast troughing pattern to set up like some of the ensemble guidance is beginning to indicate with a large, anomalously strong ridge over the SW CONUS. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 VFR conditions across the terminals this morning, and expected to continue through the forecast period. Quite a bit of mid and high cloud cover to our north this morning and sinking southward, but it doesn`t appear that bases will produce flight restrictions. The threat of afternoon TSRA is very low, certainly not enough to carry in the forecast, but it`s not zero. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Surface high pressure centered across the northern Gulf will maintain benign marine conditions today, with winds generally around 5 to 10 knots and seas of 2 feet or less. The ridge will gradually shift southward this weekend, establishing a predominantly westerly flow regime from Sunday through the middle of next week. A typical summertime diurnal wind cycle is expected, with nocturnal winds increasing to around 10 to 15 knots during the overnight periods and early morning hours before relaxing closer to 5 to 10 knots during the daytimes. Seas will generally respond similarly, with 2 to 4 feet possible over the outer waters overnight and 1 to 2 feet during the day. Conditions should remain below headline criteria, although occasional gusts approaching 15-20 knots may occur over the outer waters during the stronger nocturnal wind periods and require an Exercise Caution headline. Strong subsidence aloft from upper level ridge influence will keep thunderstorm coverage very limited during all but maybe the end of the forecast period. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW