469
FXUS64 KLIX 061050
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
550 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A slight risk for severe weather exists this afternoon into
  early Thursday morning over southwest Mississippi where a few
  storms could become strong to severe and capable of damaging
  winds, hail up to 1", and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- A marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall exists
  across much of south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana in
  association with a stalling cold front. Damaging winds, hail,
  and locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding are the
  primary concerns with any strong to severe storms that develop
  along the front.

- Additional rounds of rain, including the potential for more
  strong to severe storms, on Friday, Saturday, and likely
  concluding on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage
  and severity of any storms that develop along the Gulf coast
  during this time period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The cool crisp mornings are now a thing of a past with
temperature/dewpoints being right around 70. We`ll be entering a bit
of a pattern change where today is the first day for potential for
thunderstorms, perhaps severe, for parts of our area. The overall
setup hasn`t changed, where there is plenty of moisture and CAPE to
go around. However, the better jet dynamics still remain north where
the right entrance region is centered around the ArkLaMiss region.
Most guidance including high resolution CAMs (HRRR, RRFS) currently
show most convective initiation either north, or along at the
northern edge of our CWA in southwest MS.  The greatest threats for
any strong to severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds and hail.
The tornado threat is overall fairly low although can`t completely
rule something out especially in southwest MS. Storms should
generally be fairly progressive on Wednesday so not that
concerned about flash flooding although some areas could get
locally higher amounts just due to how efficient storms are around
here. Something noteworthy to mention is some of the ML/AI
guidance does show convection into the upper third of our CWA
(roughly along/north of I-12). The biggest factors in that being
realized will be if storms will be able to initiate on the sagging
cold front in our area during the afternoon where the environment
would be most ideal for severe wx. Going into the overnight hours
in Wed into Thursday, showers and storms will push further south
into southeast Louisiana, but the overall severe weather potential
would be fairly diminished. In terms of any heavy rainfall
threat, Thursday would have a better chance due to the front
stalling right around our area, but again with better dynamics
remaining north of us should help keep the threat on the lower
end.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Well the forecast hasn`t gotten any easier and the
extended portion of it is just messy. The surprising thing for the
past few days is the medium range models both ensemble means and
operational runs are and have been in fairly good agreement and
consistency hasn`t been terrible with respect to the pattern. That
said the sensible weather has been all over the place for this
weekend and into next week. Given the uncertainty in the details and
low confidence we will be sticking with the NBM for the long term
portion of the forecast covering Saturday night through Tuesday.

In a new development from the previous night the models are now
advertising a much stronger s/w coming into the Lower MS Valley and
northwestern Gulf coast late Saturday and through Sunday morning.
This is now suggesting a rather good chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the first half of Mother`s Day. Timing this is
futile as the best chance of rain could be overnight or through
midday Sunday as it will be absolutely dependent on this disturbance
moving through. Models are probably struggling with this system as
it is part of the closed mid lvl low currently over southern CA.
This low is going to send one shot of energy across the 4 corners
and into the southern Plains later today and that will be a key part
of today`s severe weather threat that will be mostly north and
northwest of the area. Since only a piece will eject out, the main
low will still be hanging back and slowly diving into the Baja. It
is then expected to slowly eject ENE over the next 3 days but timing
it and what helps to kick it out of the Baja is a little unknown.
Because of that it is leading to lower confidence in the forecast
for this weekend and early next week.

So we already mentioned the potential for decent showers and
thunderstorms through the morning hours Sunday but will we
completely dry out, that is highly questionable as this disturbance
doesn`t cleanly move through and actually leaves the area under
mostly zonal flow. The reason for that is because the L/W trough
axis is still back to the WNW with another s/w dropping SE through
the southern Plains. This would likely lead to additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and into Monday. We may
finally start to dry out some late Monday but there could be another
weak/subtle disturbance dropping through the Lower MS Valley late
Monday possibly squeezing out just a few more light showers.

Overall, not seeing any major impacts but can`t rule out some. It
doesn`t look like a severe weather event at all but with a decent
disturbance working in from the west Saturday night we can not
completely rule out a few over zealous storms. Also nothing
suggesting a major flood risk either but with moderate to brief
locally heavy rain there is always that threat of seeing isolated
flash flooding if the storms fall over the wrong areas. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR to MVFR or lower conditions are forecasted for terminals
today. The biggest concern will be the ceilings which are expected
to lower ahead of a front on top of showers and thunderstorms
which could cause vis/cig/wind issues if a terminal is impacted.
The best chance of storms will be the northern most terminals
(primarily MCB but includes most terminals along/north of the
I-10/I-12 corridor). There will be additional chances of showers
and storms tomorrow and likely for the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Southerly winds will continue for the coastal waters today,
generally around 10 to 15 knots. A few spots could get above 15
knots so opted to put small craft exercise caution headlines for
interior lakes and sounds. A few spots in the outer coastal waters
could technically reach at or above 15 knots briefly but it only is
for a rather short window. Winds will then become more light and
variable as a weak front stalls at or near the coast Thursday. This
front will dissipate around Friday and onshore winds will return.
There will be daily chances of showers and storms starting Wednesday
through the rest of the week. Any of the stronger storms could cause
locally higher winds and waves/seas, along with potential for
waterspouts.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL