485
FXUS64 KLIX 292337
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A broad upper level ridge is vaguely centered near the OK/AR region
and is expanded across the nearly the entire southern half of the
country. It has been and will continue to slowly retrograde westward
today. That puts the southeastern US right on the southeastern
periphery of the high. This time of year with such strong daytime
heating, minimal decreases in subsidence are still it takes for storms
to develop and thats what we`re seeing this afternoon. CAMs are in
pretty good agreement that the eastern half of the CWA will see the
bulk of afternoon and evening convection as storms roll in from the
northeast. No surprise looking at BFR soundings that DCAPE is high
from inverted V profile and ample instability aloft. Strong to
marginally severe downdrafts will be the main concerns with more
robust cells. Its a bit more uncertain during the overnight period
as to whether new storms develop in the 06-14Z timeframe. Then, some
models keep convection offshore while others are more widespread to
inland parts of the CWA.

That uncertainty carries over into Wednesday. Heat advisory was re-
issued for Wed under the assumption that convection will be minimal.
If storms persist will into the morning hours, temps may not recover
fast enough for heat indicies to reach above 107.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A broad upper level trough will spread south from Canada across the
northeastern US Thursday through Friday night. This will drastically
erode the eastern side of the upper ridge aloft and thus reduce
subsidence substantially. Forecast POPs Thurs onward is pretty much
what you`d expect this time of year without strong ridge overhead...
high rain chances with the potential for small scale localized
flooding in the afternoons. It`ll still be fairly hot but coverage
will most likely start too early in the day and be too widespread
for the need for a heat advisory.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Recent radar trends illustrate a dissipating complex of TSRA
drifting south/west across coastal SE LA this evening. Impacts
will mainly be confined to terminals south of KBTR to KHUM with
SCT TSRA expected with a brief wind shift 010-030. Elsewhere,
TSRA/SHRA will continue to dissipate leaving a quiet night tonight
with VFR prevailing. Will monitor another round of SCT TSRA again
tomorrow, mainly late morning through the afternoon/evening hours.
Storms may become strong to severe, along lead forward-surging
gust fronts allowing for sudden wind shifts and locally strong to
potentially severe wind gusts. Timing remains uncertain, but
ranged PROB30`s with greatest confidence. In any strong/severe
storm, gusty strong/severe winds, low CIGs/VIS from heavy rain
will cause periodic lower flight categories. Expect VFR outside of
any SCT TSRA activity, with most coverage dissipating towards
00-02Z. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Pressure gradient remains quite low across the Gulf. That`ll allow
for mesoscale features such as differential heating and convective
outflow drive wind speeds and directions. Some storms could easily
produce gale force gusts, especially in the daytime hours. It`s not
until late week before surface ridge develops in the southeastern
Gulf and promotes consistent gradient flow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  93  73  93 /  20  70  30  60
BTR  78  94  76  94 /  20  70  40  60
ASD  75  93  75  93 /  50  60  30  70
MSY  79  94  79  94 /  50  80  30  70
GPT  77  93  78  93 /  30  70  30  60
PQL  75  93  76  93 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056-059-064>071-088>090.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>085.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...ME