Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
675 FXUS64 KLIX 111147 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 A fairly tranquil night has evolved across the CWFA late this evening. Our area remains on a rather dry side (at least aloft) of an H5 weakness across southeast portions of Texas this evening. With the slight delay in low level moisture, today didn`t really see as much overage as initially thought. Monday and especially Tuesday will be the days of transition. Looking upstream, there is an easterly wave over the southeast Gulf. This feature and the upper level weakness above it will continue to move toward our region through the start of the new workweek. This will certainly enhance the low level tropical moisture and help produce more in the way of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Right now the best potential looks to be on Tuesday with plenty of low level convergence and the upper level weakness overhead. With respect to higher POPs and cloudiness, temperatures will be held down slightly below average perhaps with some struggling to reach 90 degrees, especially east of I55. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 With the surface trough still in closer proximity, rain chances to start off the long term will remain across the region. That said, it will not take long for the upper level ridge to spread eastward from Florida and across the Gulf. Each day as we get closer to the upcoming weekend, POPs will decrease as the ridge centers over our region once again. Rain chances will not be zero of course, but with the 595 dam H5 ridge setting up here shower coverage will be more limited for sure (below climo POPs for early to mid August). Speaking up, as we are used to this time of year, as POPs decrease you can expect those afternoon highs to increase, especially as the upper ridge centers over the region through the weekend. Temperatures in the middle and upper 90s will be possible once again with the potential for heat headlines as early as Friday. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Currently VFR, with most convection offshore. Isolated SHRA/TSRA could get going as early as 15-16z, but expect most to be this afternoon. Generally, will carry TEMPO at terminals south of Interstate 10, and PROB30 at KMCB/KBTR/KHDC, with most dissipating around sunset. Will carry mention of SHRA/TSRA prior to sunrise Tuesday at southern and eastern terminals as easterly wave approaches and spreads precipitation back into the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Winds and waves are forecast to remain mostly benign through the forecast period with winds staying below 15kts. The only marine concerns through the forecast period are related to convection. Winds and waves will be locally higher around any thunderstorms that develop. The early morning hours have the best chances of marine convection each day with some storms on the stronger side bringing higher winds and seas. Convective coverage is expected to increase early to midweek before decreasing as high pressure builds back into the region by the end of the workweek. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 73 88 72 / 50 30 80 20 BTR 92 75 90 74 / 60 30 80 20 ASD 90 74 88 73 / 70 50 80 30 MSY 92 79 89 77 / 70 40 80 30 GPT 90 76 87 76 / 60 60 80 40 PQL 90 74 87 74 / 70 60 80 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF