Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
295 FXUS64 KLIX 211752 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1152 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 We will begin to have a few degrees added to our highs today. Don`t get too excited, it will still be cold as highs should only make it to the low 50s while some will still stay in the 40s. Another light freeze north tonight as we will begin to add several degrees to lows as well. Saturday will get us into the mid/upper 50s and we may even see a 60F out there. No freeze Sat night but still cool. A sfc low will develop over the western gulf today and this will be responsible for bringing clouds back to the area by Sat. Other than cold conditions, there will be no other issues in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 The upper level flow will be quite strong and could produce some sh/ts by Sunday morning. This would be all elevated as well and with temps starting Sunday in the 40s, this will be a very cold rain. After the weekend, we will feel a definite warm up for next week and no rain for several days. We will dive into Sunday as this should be the only weather day for the next several and with public and outdoor festivities ongoing, we will try to give the best info possible with regards to any public safety concerns due to weather. The high to the NE on Sunday will be anchored and refuse to move much. If you take a slice of the atmosphere Sunday and look at it from the side(slice oriented SW to NE), you would see the gentle rise of the isentropic layers from SW to NE through our area. It is above these isentropic layers(warm frontal layers) that clouds can develop and exist. Below these layers, it will be stable and no clouds. Since these layers rise toward the NE, they effectively shrink the area that clouds can exist as these surfaces squeeze the atmospheric variables against the tropopause. Since it takes clouds to make rain, and there has to be some depth to them to do so, there will be an area to the NE that will get no rain. Basically, the cloud depth and rainfall will decrease as one moves from SW to NE. And this is the reason the models are showing this tapering to the NE with this system on Sunday. All of that to say this, the depth of cloud and temperature also dictates lightning production. So we can safely say that at some point toward the NE there will light rainfall with no lightning. Just where that line exists will be determined by where the sfc low travels. If the low is closer to the area then the depths of clouds will be deeper for some of the area. While all areas will have a good chance of getting some rain Sunday, the lowest chances of lightning will be over the NE portion of the area, but as we travel south and SW, this slowly changes and probabilities are not high, but they do exist. At the moment, the chances are at least high enough to mention slight chance of lightning to the west of the Mississippi River. Again, this will be determined by where the sfc low travels and if the high to the NE is weaker or has a different placement, so basically, this line can change as it is very subtle differences that drive it. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Could see some BKN CIGs at around 6kft overnight for some terminals, but impacts should be minor if at all. Otherwise, winds will be decreasing and should become a bit more variable overnight tonight and early Saturday. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 Small craft advisories will remain over all waters as strong high pressure builds in over the area. Another sfc low will begin to develop in the western gulf causing winds to shift to NE today but remain around 20kt. This low will be the next weather impact for the northern gulf mainly Sunday. Winds will shift to E Sun as the sfc low moves through the northern/central gulf. The low will move SE late Sunday bringing the sh/ts with it away from the northern gulf by Mon. Winds will greatly depend on the track of this sfc low. Wind speeds are currently forecast to remain around 20kt from the east Sunday but if this low tracks closer or through the coastal waters, winds will shift around the compass through the day Sunday and will be much stronger, possibly to gale force with numerous storms. The eventual track of this low will be better refined over the next 24hrs. Closely follow the latest guidance concerning this issue as the marine forecast has the potential to change abruptly. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 224 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 With the arctic air currently over the area, here are the record low temperatures for today through Saturday morning at our local sites. Record lows today through Saturday...POR is period of record Location (POR) Today Saturday BTR (1892) 25/1908 24/1978 MSY (1946) 31/1978 26/1978 MCB (1948) 21/1978 15/1978 GPT (1893) 29/1898 23/1978 ASD (1994) 31/2021 28/1999 PQL (1997) 30/2021 23/1999 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 30 56 34 54 / 0 0 10 40 BTR 36 58 41 55 / 0 10 30 60 ASD 34 60 40 57 / 0 0 20 50 MSY 41 56 45 57 / 0 0 30 70 GPT 34 59 39 56 / 0 0 10 40 PQL 33 61 37 59 / 0 0 10 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ570-572. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ572. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...RDF MARINE...TE