085
FXUS64 KLIX 140453
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1153 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper level ridge starts to build into the area along with surface
high pressure building in westward from the Florida/Alabama towards
Louisiana. These features are not very strong so it will be
unlikely to completely suppress precipitation the next few days,
but overall have a lower trend then what we were seeing earlier
this week. Generally kept the PoPs in the 50%s range for Thursday
and Friday.

Low temperatures are looking to be in the upper 70s to
near 80 for a few spots for the next 2 days. High temperatures
will start to climb starting tomorrow as well with temps being in
the low to mid 90s along with rich tropical moisture lingering in
the area. That being said, it is definitely borderline for
Thursday as some convection or a little more cloud cover could
easily keep the heat index from reaching criteria. That being
said, it is close enough especially when considering the next few
days will be quite hot as well. Friday is basically looking the
same as Thursday so another heat advisory may be needed on Friday
as well.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Generally PoPs will be on the slightly lower side (30%-50%) and
temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend with high
temps in the low to mid 90s. Tropical moisture still sticks around
the area although it`ll start to mix a little bit.  Additional
heat advisories will have to be looked at later this week.
Otherwise it will continue to be a summertime pattern with daily
diurnal storms starting up on sea/lake breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for most of the period outside of any
terminals impacted by storms. Stubborn persistent thunderstorms
may impact MCB and ASD overnight but once these storms run out of
steam, it should be quiet until tomorrow afternoon. MCB may get
some brief low ceiling or fog in the early morning hours. The
overall chances of convection will be slightly lower tomorrow but
just high enough to keep PROB30s for most terminals. Otherwise
winds will remain generally light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Main concern for impacts would be the daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week, especially in
the overnight to early morning hours. Any thunderstorm can  cause
locally stronger gusty winds, higher waves/seas, and
waterspouts. Other than that, winds should become fairly light
starting tomorrow and remain like that for at least the rest of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  94  73 /  60  30  60  30
BTR  94  77  95  76 /  60  30  60  20
ASD  91  75  93  75 /  50  20  40  10
MSY  92  79  94  79 /  50  20  40  10
GPT  89  76  93  76 /  40  20  30  20
PQL  89  75  92  75 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ048-057-058-
     060-064-076>089.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL