540
FXUS64 KLIX 220451
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Tuesday can expect similar conditions to Monday as high pressure
remains in control through mid week. PoPs will be below 20%, so only
an isolated storm or two is expected. Temperatures will once again
be hot, with MaxT`s forecast in the mid 90s for the entire area.
MaxAptT`s are forecast to be in the 108-112F range once again so a
Heat Advisory is in place for the entire area outside of very
coastal LA.

Heading into Wednesday we will start to see a pattern change as the
surface high pressure gets pushed westward away from our area. This
comes as a wave moves in from the east, which also helps introduce
tropical moisture back into the region. This shows in the PoPs
forecast with values rising into the 50-60% range, mainly towards
the eastern areas and likely delayed until late in the day. With the
convection looking to be delayed until later in the day, this sets
up another very hot day across the area and looking to be the
hottest of this stretch so far. The entire area is forecast to have
afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s with a few spots even
seeing a chance at the upper 90s. These temperatures paired with the
tropical moisture moving back in, brings MaxAptT`s forecast to be in
the 110-115F range. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for all of
the area Wednesday, as at the very least it looks like a Heat
Advisory is certain and an Extreme Heat Warning for some areas is
not out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Wednesday, rain chances will start to increase over the area and
especially into Thursday and Friday. When the rain chances
increase will play a big role in the heat risk and heat concerns.
There is still a lot of model uncertainty in the forecast for
Wednesday with the Euro/NBM showing storm chances increasing after
noon on Wednesday and the GFS among others showing it drier until
the evening hours on Wednesday. Given the strength of the high
pressure and current trends, we are more inclined at this point to
lean toward the drier solution. If this occurs, there would be
less cloud/rain coverage and heat index values could be
approaching excessive heat warning criteria (~113 degrees). And
added heat risk concern for the drier solution is that the lows on
Wednesday morning may not drop below 80 degrees in some locations,
including New Orleans. This would compound the heating effects.
If the rain starts up earlier, by midday, then the heat risk
concerns would be greatly reduced. We will have to see how things
develop over the next 1-2 days.

An easterly wave is expected to move through the area Wednesday
night through the weekend, enhancing rain chances. There is still
a good bit of uncertainty in how long the rain chances will last
(i.e. through Friday or through the weekend, etc.). But at the
least, some localized flash flooding could be possible later in
the workweek, given the higher PWs and Gulf moisture. We are
currently outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to
reflect this concern for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. We will
keep monitoring over the next few days to see how things play out
in the models as this wave approaches the area. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. Similar to the last 24
hours, cannot rule out a rogue shower or storm during peak heating
on Tuesday, but the coverage will be too low to mention with this
package. Otherwise, winds will continue to mostly be light and
variable. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

High pressure remains in control of the forecast through the first
half of the week, helping to keep winds light. Winds may become
slightly elevated in the second half of the week as they turn
southerly, though currently still looking to remain below exercise
caution criteria. Convection will remain very isolated in nature
Tuesday and most of Wednesday before we see tropical moisture return
to the region, increasing our chances of rain and thunderstorms.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  96 /   0  10   0  30
BTR  76  96  77  96 /   0  10   0  30
ASD  76  96  76  96 /   0  10  10  50
MSY  79  96  80  96 /   0  20   0  50
GPT  78  96  77  96 /   0  20  10  60
PQL  76  97  76  96 /   0  20  10  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...HL