893
FXUS64 KLIX 200841
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Environment is becoming more supportive of radiation fog overnight.
There are two ingredients that are needed for this to be complete.
The first is wind speeds need to lower overnight and this will be
the case by Monday. Then we will need moisture and plenty of it and
this looks to be the case by Monday as well. Basically, areas that
get rain today and Monday should be prime for producing fog late
Monday night/Tue morning. The amount of moisture needed to produce
fog depends greatly on the ambient temp and is a direct
relationship. The higher the temp, the greater moisture content
needed. During colder temps, it would only take an onshore flow to
bring enough moisture to produce fog. When it gets warmer, onshore
flow is a bonus, but most times we would need to have rainfall to
bring that moisture and then evaporate it into the boundary layer.
All this to say, Tue morning could be foggy for areas that get rain
between now and Tue morning.

Some showers could move through today and maybe even a storm but the
higher probs of rain in the short term will be Monday. There are
only low numbers to support severe with these mainly Monday, but
they do exist so there is a low but valid probability of a strong or
severe storm mainly for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The cold front moving through TX this morning will stall over
central LA/MS Monday then pivot causing the front to adjust
northward but orient east west. There will be some storms associated
with this boundary and some of these could develop well into our
area via convergent flow and outflow boundaries Tuesday. There is no
moderate or strong numbers that jump off the page concerning severe
storms Tuesday, so we will keep chances of this low for now. But
this looks to change as we move through the week. The orientation of
the frontal boundary will open up the transport of disturbances to
move out of south TX and north TX eastward into our area Wed and Thu
and possibly Fri. A short wave will drop into the zonal flow by Wed
helping to ignite a large complex over the Red River Valley while
another MCS feature develops over south TX Tuesday evening and moves
this way Wed. Models were trying to show this dissipating as it
moves east and now all solutions are to bring this feature into the
area for Wed evening/night. Storms will also fire at random across
the deep south Thu as well and any outflows that exist around our
area is where we could see this occur for us. For the far extended
portion of the fcast, model runs now show a cold front approaching
the area from the NW by the start of next week and have now flipped
from no rain to moderate rain chances with a weak boundary near the
coast, now to a cold front impacting the area early next week. We
would like to see a formal trend appear before biting on any single
solution for this portion of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs at all terminals will move to VFR by late morning
but will be back in again tonight with a few locations having IFR
cigs after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Small craft advisories will remain through 10am today for SE wind
speeds of 20-25kt. These winds will slowly ease through today. Wind
speeds will lower back to around 10kt by Mon but a SE fetch will
remain well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  67  83  65 /  10  20  90  30
BTR  85  70  85  67 /  10  20  80  20
ASD  83  69  83  67 /   0  30  60  30
MSY  83  71  82  70 /   0  20  60  20
GPT  80  69  79  67 /   0  20  50  30
PQL  82  66  82  65 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-552-
     555-570-572-575.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE