471
FXUS64 KLIX 230526
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1126 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Updated public grids based on recent trends. Generally, increased
rain chances somewhat based on radar trends, and raised overnight
lows several degrees. While we`ll likely see several degrees of
cooling with rain falling into drier air below 5000 feet as noted
on the 00z LIX sounding, the blanket of clouds won`t let
temperatures crater.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A fairly robust H5 shortwave continues to move east over the
Tennessee River Valley this afternoon. Another small impulse
within the progressive flow aloft has helped generate some very
light shower activity...although most of which has been
evaporating before reaching the ground due to very dry conditions
just off the deck, as seen in the 12z local RAOB. Going into this
evening and overnight a stronger upper level trough will move east
out of New Mexico and into Texas. At the same time, a surface
trough/low will continue to organize east of the mouth of the Rio
Grande. This feature will strengthen as the upper level impulse
continues to spread downstream. Widespread shower activity is
anticipated to develop late tonight and spread into the region
through Sunday morning as isentropic upglide increase north of the
system. Rainfall rates at this juncture do not seem to be very
impressive, but QPF values of 1-2" total will be possible with the
steady soaking rainfall. Highest totals will remain along and
south of the I10 corridor.

As Sunday evening and overnight rolls around, the surface feature
will continue to move downstream and eventually into Florida.
Behind the system an overall pattern shift takes place with a dry
northwest flow aloft setting up over the region. Temperatures
through the short term will remain below average for this time of
year, but overnight lows will not be nearly as cold as days passed
with clouds lingering. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure will be in control going into the start of the new
workweek. Dry northwesterly flow remains overhead and with some
heights increasing we will even start to see temperatures
gradually warm on Monday and by Tuesday upper 60s and lower 70s
will be felt across much of the region...away from the water. The
overall pattern doesn`t really change much from early to midweek.
It will mostly be a temperature forecast up until Friday. At that
point, globals have finally come around in terms of agreement (GFS
finally has the frontal boundary). Although QPF signal within the
globals is fairly light, this would be the next measurable rain
chance. As for temperatures to finish up the last few days of the
month, generally around average even behind the front late in the
week. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Local terminals all VFR at forecast issuance time. Light rain
occurring at terminals west of Interstate 55, but to this point
have been no significant impacts to operations. Likely to start
seeing restrictions to ceilings and/or visibilities at KBTR and
KHUM in the next 3 hours or so, and expect ceilings to lower to
MVFR prior to sunrise at most terminals. IFR or lower conditions
expected most of the daytime hours at all terminals, with no
significant improvement prior to 06z Monday, and probably not that
soon. It should be noted that while TSRA is not explicitly
mentioned in any terminal, the threat is non-zero. If there would
be a favored terminal, it would be KHUM. While winds are not
expected to be an issue over the next 6 hours or so, sustained
easterly winds near 15 knots are expected during the daytime
hours at KHUM, KNEW, KMSY and perhaps KGPT. Those wind speeds
could continue into Sunday evening before low pressure shifts east
of the area.

Widespread VFR conditions are unlikely prior to 18z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

As a surface low moves east away from the lower TX Coast, winds
and seas will build, especially beyond 20nm. SCA and cautionary
headlines will become necessary by early Sunday. Conditions will
begin to improve going into the start of the new workweek as
surface high pressure spreads into the region allowing winds to
decrease across the local waters. Conditions will remain favorable
at least until late next week as a weak frontal boundary is
expected to move through increasing winds and seas once again.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  49  39  65 /  70 100  30   0
BTR  44  52  43  67 /  90 100  30   0
ASD  43  54  44  66 /  70 100  50   0
MSY  48  56  48  63 /  80 100  50   0
GPT  43  51  43  64 /  60  90  70  10
PQL  42  55  44  66 /  40  90  70  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF