599
FXUS64 KLIX 121144 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
544 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A few showers have developed along the cold front that remains
parked over our region this morning. Eventually, as an H5 impulse
ejects north and eastward as surface low will develop over
southeast Texas and move northeast quickly during the day. The
front at that point should finally start to move northward, which
guidance shows to be north of our forecast area by sunrise or so.
A complex of convection (elevated in nature) currently over east
Texas should lift northeast along and just north of the frontal
boundary. Again, since guidance is suggesting the front to be
north of our area in the next few hours, think most of this
morning activity misses our region.

Going into the morning and eventually afternoon eyes will
certainly be on thermals. A bit more sun and instability (not to
mention temperatures today) will out perform expectations. The
question is how much shower activity could develop in the warm
sector this afternoon to help keep those values in check. The
latest HRRR runs both 00z and 06z show plenty of instability with
some SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/Kg. If that materializes
think not only wind or tornado potential, but also possibly hail
added to the mix. Speaking of wind and tornado, effective bulk
shear values remain elevated, but low level directional shear is
almost nonexistent with a mostly unidirectional wind profile
through the event. SRH values look to be at or less than 200 m2s2,
but still there will be enough speed shear (especially as a
40-50kt LLJ develops) for a nonzero tornado potential. CAMs are
still respectively suggesting a supercell potential ahead of the
main line later tonight. This would primarily be the better
hail/Tornado potential with the line moving through with bowing
segments placing wind as the main concern...not to mention
possible mesovorts in southwest to northeast bowing segments. As
for rainfall, Pwats increase to around 1.7" tonight. In the
southwest to northeast flow and potential for training showers and
storms, a bit more of a hydro concern than in prior packages,
especially now as CAMs have some locations adding up a couple of
inches. Where this takes place is tough to pinpoint, but right now
we will still mention southwest MS and the far northeast portions
of the CWFA as likely corridor of heaviest rainfall. But this is
still fluid (no pun intended). Otherwise, the only other concern
today will be gusty winds as the surface low pulls north and east
increasing low level pressure gradient. Right now, it appears
gusts will be below wind advisory criteria, but some gusts up to
30mph will be possible during the day today, especially if we get
a decent amount of surface heating/mixing

By late tonight the line of convection and front will push east of
the forecast area allowing for drier air to filter into the region
on Thursday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
temperatures on Thursday in the upper 60s when compared to nearing
or exceeding 80 degrees today. Overnight low will also be cooler
with a decent chunk of the CWFA dropping into the 40s overnight
Thursday night. (Frye)


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Easterly flow will be the rule on Friday morning as high pressure
sits over western Ohio. Aloft, the upper level regime doesn`t
change...more active southwesterly flow, which will come into play
a bit later. The high pressure through the day moves quickly east,
which sets up a strong return flow and warmer conditions behind
the old cold front stalled over the Gulf. This strong southerly
onshore flow goes right to work bringing back moisture into the
region...and perhaps more advection fog.

A very robust H5 trough begins to slide out of the four corners
and into the Red River Valley late Saturday and into Sunday. This
will allow for a stronger cold front to move southward toward our
region late Saturday and early Sunday. At the surface a low
pressure develops over Arkansas and quickly deepens as it moves
into the central Ohio River Valley. Initial look at synoptics
indicate an appreciable severe weather potential from this feature
with quite a bit of dynamics in play and a quick moderation in
the low levels. As for parameters, SRH ahead of the front is
supportive, but at least the globals are showing more of a high
shear low cape event. That in mind, globals can under do
instability a bit, so we will watch patiently as the mesoscale
guidance comes within range.

The front regardless makes a quick exit Sunday morning leaving us
with a strong CAA regime and finally a bit of an upper level
pattern shift to a more dry and cooler northwest flow. High
pressure settles across the region early next week, which should
provide good radiational cooling environment...so for both daily
max temps and overnight lows, expect both to be below average to
start the new workweek. That said, the upper flow quickly turns
zonal again by midweek and onshore flow develops as the high moves
off the east coast. A quick warming trend is expected from
Tuesday onward before our next chance of rain/storms on Wednesday.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Flight categoires will widely vary today depending on SHRA/TSRA
that develop across the region. This morning a few showers are
briefly lower VIS/CIG respectively. There may be a break and we
may briefly for most sites bounce back to VFR before convection
starts to fire later this afternoon and this evening. Southerly
surface winds are going to increase a bit too with some terminals
gusting to near 30kt at times. LLWS wasn`t included as surface
flow increases, however, just off the deck winds will increase to
around 40-45kt, especially this afternoon and evening. Winds
shift more northerly later tonight as the front moves through from
west to east. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Moderate to strong winds expected to develop early today across
the local waters. For the Gulf waters a SCA remains in effect. The
sounds and tidal lakes have been given cautionary headlines
through 12z on Thursday. There will be a slight break in the
strongest winds on Thursday, however, this will be brief as winds
ramp up again later in the afternoon basically through the
upcoming weekend. SCA conditions are increasingly likely from late
Thursday onward through the entire weekend as a stronger cold
front moves through the region late Saturday or early Sunday.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  47  59  38 /  90  80   0   0
BTR  82  52  65  44 /  90  80   0   0
ASD  82  54  69  45 /  80  90  10   0
MSY  82  57  67  50 /  80  90  10  10
GPT  77  54  69  45 /  70  90  20   0
PQL  80  57  72  44 /  70  90  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-570-
     572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ555-557-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ557-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF