984
FXUS64 KLIX 062335
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
should dissipate around sunset as instability associated with
diurnal heating winds down. With a warm and humid airmass in
place, overnight lows will remain above normal, only falling into
the mid to upper 70s most places.

Saturday will be very similar to today as upper level high
pressure remains in place, keeping showers and storms fairly
limited in coverage. Afternoon highs will rise into the low to mid
90s. Dewpoints generally in the mid 70s across the region will
result in afternoon heat index values rising into the 100 to 105
degree range. While this is shy of our local heat advisory
criteria, these will be the warmest heat index values of the warm
season so far and those with outdoor plans should take precautions
to protect themselves from heat-related illness by taking breaks
in the shade, staying hydrated, and wearing light-weight and
loose-fitting clothes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

No changes in the long term thinking and only minor tweaks made to
the forecast compared to previous package. Previous long term
discussion follows.

Relief is coming in the form of sh/ts possibly as early as Sunday
afternoon or evening as a trough axis slowly moves into the gulf
south. There could be some storms with this that become strong or
severe in NW flow. The axis will orient NW to SE into our area for
the first of the week which will allow developing systems to the
west to ride this axis into the area by mid week if it stalls over
us. The question has been where is this boundary going to stall and
trends now give some evidence to this. The main trough axis looks to
stall just north of the area but the good thing is that storms don`t
just develop in a linear fashion adhering to this boundary. Instead,
storms are helped to develop by this boundary then move along and
away from it, and this is what brings some of these storms into our
area at first. The boundary should then slowly progress to near the
gulf coast Tue and stall again Wed before washing out. This farther
movement may be from outflows from storms as they move south and SE.
The trough simply breaks the cap over the area for several days past
Sunday. This allows the strong sfc variables to be released upward
giving us a better chance of sh/ts. The only bad thing is that each
day will bring with it the probability of a few storms misbehaving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the evening and much
of the forecast period. A few isolated storms have been popping up
this afternoon, briefly bring vis issues and lightning, but these
will remain very isolated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Winds will vary between south and southwest through the weekend
and into the first part of the work week. As surface high pressure
shifts eastward, winds will become more southeasterly by
Wednesday. Gradient flow will generally be around 10 kts.
Regarding shower and thunderstorm activity, rain chances will
generally remain low for the next couple days, but will begin to
increase Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each
day Monday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  74  91 /  10  20   0  50
BTR  76  93  77  93 /   0  20   0  50
ASD  75  93  75  93 /  10  20   0  40
MSY  78  93  78  94 /  10  20   0  50
GPT  76  90  77  92 /  10  20   0  50
PQL  75  91  75  91 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...DM