052
FXUS64 KLIX 232351
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
651 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- All Tropical Storm related warnings/advisories have been cancelled

- Impactful heat conditions are likely to return this weekend and
  persist well into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move westward along the
southwestern Louisiana coast and about to enter Texas. Tropical
storm conditions have ended across CWA, although the broad
circulation continues to influence local clouds, showers, and winds.
Current radar shows bands of light occasionally moderate showers
rotating around Bertha and crossing portions of southeast Louisiana
and southern Mississippi. Additional scattered development will
persist through the afternoon as daytime heating increases buoyancy
on the moist boundary layer. Any heavier showers should be brief and
poorly organized, but efficient rainfall processes could still
produce a quick downpour. Widespread heavy rainfall is not expected,
and shower coverage should decrease quickly this evening with the
loss of heating and as Bertha moves farther west.

Cloud cover and passing showers have slowed the local temperature
rise today compared with recent days. Most locations should remain
in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. This will keep peak
heat indices generally below local advisory criteria today.
Southerly winds will remain somewhat elevated through the afternoon,
with occasional gusts around 15 to 20 knots, before the pressure
gradient relaxes this evening.

A rapid transition toward drier and hotter weather begins Friday.
The remnants of Bertha will move deeper into Texas while a large
upper-level 598dm ridge centered near the Texas Panhandle will
migrate towards the Four Corners region. Although the ridge center
remains northwest of the CWA, rising heights and increasing
subsidence along its southeastern periphery will sharply suppress
convection. Rain chances are therefore 10% or less Friday outside of
a very low-probability coastal or sea-breeze shower. Abundant
sunshine and increasing 500mb heights should allow temps to rebound
to back into the middle 90s. Forecast heat indices are generally
expected to range from around 105 degrees. Confidence in widespread
advisory-level conditions Friday remains lower than for later in the
weekend.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A prolonged period of hot and predominantly dry weather remains the
primary forecast concern through the extended period. The large
upper high pressure should remain near the Four Corners region
Saturday before gradually shifting eastward toward the southern
Plains Sunday. It then drifts south to TX/OK Panhandles by midweek.
The size of the ridge is notable, with its subsidence influence
covering much of the central United States with its northern and
southern ends extending both north/south borders of the country. The
local forecast area will remain beneath its broad southeastern
periphery, supporting persistent midlevel warming, weak large-scale
ascent, and limited afternoon convection. Highs Saturday should
reach the middle and upper 90s. Daytime highs then increase another
degree or two Sunday, followed by widespread upper 90s and localized
100s Monday through Wednesday. The greatest potential for
temperatures near 100 will generally be along the I-10/12 corridors.

Deep-layer moisture is forecast to remain relatively limited beneath
the ridge, but sufficient boundary-layer moisture will persist to
produce dangerous heat indices. Peak heat indices should
increasingly reach 108 to 112 degrees Sunday, with values of 110 to
115 degrees possible Monday through Wednesday. Heat Advisory
criteria appears increasingly likely across much of the area. The
duration of the heat will be as important as any individual
afternoon maximum. Overnight lows will trend into the upper 70s
across much of the CWA, with lows around or above 80 degrees in the
New Orleans metropolitan area, along the immediate coast, and near
the tidal lakes. This will provide increasingly poor overnight
recovery and support accumulating heat stress through the period.
Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged heat event, but near
normal regarding the exact magnitude of peak heat indices. Rain
chances each day will remain near 10% as strong subsidence should
prevent meaningful convective coverage. However, a rogue late-
afternoon storm could still develop along a sea-breeze or other
localized boundary. Thus, most locations will remain dry each day,
and any isolated storm would provide only very localized and
temporary relief from the heat.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

SCT to BKN VFR CIGs are prevailing at all terminals with winds of
around 10 knots or less gusting to 20 knots at times between 200
to 140 degrees. A few patchy showers are still moving through the
MSY/NEW area, but are expected to gradually diminish after 0100
UTC. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals with
southerly winds generally at or less than 10 knots through the
day Friday. The only exception might be MCB with some patchy MVFR
fog right around sunrise, but this is lower confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The center of Tropical Storm Bertha is near the TX/LA border and
still moving west. As such, its influence on local winds/seas will
steadily diminish. Recent wind observations in coastal waters
clearly depict this and most locations are barely seeing Small Craft
speeds. A weak surface ridge will build westward across the northern
Gulf Friday, allowing winds and seas to collapse substantially.
Winds should generally fall to around 10 knots or less, with seas
predominantly 1 to 3 feet.

From Saturday through Wednesday, the surface ridge should drift
south of the coastal waters and establish a more typical summertime
wind regime. Winds will generally increase overnight to around 10 to
15 knots and relax to near 10 knots during the daytime. Seas should
respond similarly, building to around 2 to 4 feet overnight and
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet during the day. Any isolated afternoon or
evening thunderstorm could briefly produce higher winds, locally
rough seas, frequent lightning, and reduced visibility.


&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ541-551-
     553-570-572.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ551-553-
     570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME