Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
257 FXUS64 KLIX 030503 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Weak upper trough across the area this evening, with a trailing shortwave from Missouri to the Arklatex, and another over Colorado. A weak frontal boundary looked to be pretty close to the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines. Upper air soundings around the region pretty consistently had precipitable water values near 2.2 inches. Precipitation across the area got off to a pretty late start, around 4 or 5 pm CDT, and has already mostly dissipated other than a few isolated showers. The lead shortwave will be crossing the CWA during the daytime hours, with forecast soundings showing a good amount of drying across the northwest half of the area, where precipitable water values are forecast to be closer to 1.7 inches during the afternoon. That is likely to keep convective development across the McComb and Baton Rouge areas rather isolated during the afternoon, if any occurs at all. Across the remainder of the area, instantaneous areal coverage is likely to remain on the scattered side, with PoP12 values not much higher than 50-60, and that may be overstating things. Highs will be similar to Saturday in the lower 90s. With the trough axis forecast to be east of much of the area on Monday, the question becomes whether the Colorado shortwave arrives in time to provide a repeat of the areal precipitation pattern. NBM PoPs look to be a bit on the high side for most of the area, and haven`t had a great track record the past few days. However, not out of line with surrounding offices, and not going to gain much if a 5- 10 percent adjustment was made. Temperatures again in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Upper ridging to our west looks to become anchored over New Mexico for most of the week, with troughing across the southeastern states. Latest run of guidance holds precipitable water values of 2 to 2.2 inches over the Mississippi coastal counties Tuesday, so there`s at least some concern for heavy rainfall there, but feel the larger threat is east of our CWA. Beyond Tuesday, forecast precipitable water values between 1.7 and 1.9 inches lower the heavy rain threat, but don`t see enough dry air for most of the area to back off of at least scattered chances of thunderstorms each day. No indications of significant cooloff across the local area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Convection took a little longer to progress into the area than expected during the afternoon, but did finally get going around 21z. Most had dissipated by 03z over land, while convection started to fire offshore. Most of the overnight hours should be VFR conditions, but some potential for early morning lower clouds/visibilities, with KMCB-KHDC and KGPT candidates. Beyond 16z, areal coverage of TSRA should be somewhat more limited across northwestern terminals and will not carry mention at all at KMCB and KBTR. Even there, threat isn`t zero. Elsewhere, used about a 4 hour period of TEMPO/PROB30 during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Outside of convective impacts, conditions will remain benign across the coastal waters. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will probably remain on the scattered side with diurnal maxima from late night through about midday over the open waters, and during the afternoon and early evening over the lakes and sounds. A few strong storms will be possible each day/night, and could result in gusty winds, waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 71 91 71 / 20 10 30 20 BTR 91 73 93 74 / 30 10 30 20 ASD 91 73 91 72 / 50 30 60 50 MSY 92 78 92 77 / 50 30 60 40 GPT 92 75 89 74 / 60 40 70 60 PQL 91 73 89 73 / 70 50 80 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW