Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
060 FXUS64 KLIX 140529 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1129 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week. - Tonight, tomorrow night, and Saturday night, some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Aloft, a dry northwesterly flow is ongoing across the region as we remain on the northeast periphery of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf. This in part is leading to continued above average temperatures across not only our region, but also most of the central US. At the surface, weak return flow continues as the surface high remains over the southern Appalachians. Gradually more and more low level moisture will filter into the region. Despite the gradual increase in low level moisture, the short term will remain dry from a precip perspective. With clear conditions and light and variable winds radiational fog may develop, especially over the Florida Parishes and interior south Mississippi this morning and again Saturday morning. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Sunday and Monday the upper flow transitions into a more zonal or progressive flow. A continuation of above average temperatures can be expected...even into mid and late week (no cool down) expected. The zonal flow is short lived as broad scale ridging takes place over the Gulf and into the southeast. This does allow a more active southwesterly flow to develop. Upstream a trough over the desert southwest amplifies. The strong upper ridge, however, wins out for now keeping the front and parent trough well to the north and west of our region through at least midweek. Going into Thursday, ECM wants to bring the front through and is a bit more progressive than the slower GFS which by Thursday night hangs the front west of the Sabine River. Despite the spatial and temporal discrepancies, one quick note about the overall synoptic pattern within the globals. This would appear to be a setup for at least some strong to severe storms somewhere over the lower MS River Valley. Timing will be key and we have several days to hurry up and wait, if you will, and monitor how models eventually evolve the system. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions into the overnight hours, however, VIS reductions will start to become apparent as more fog will be possible for HDC, BTR, MCB, HUM and possibly GPT and ASD around sunrise give or take. Outside of GPT, terminals will likely see low MVFR/IFR conditions at least for a few hours this morning. Otherwise, the VIS issues should mix out around mid to late morning or so. Winds will remain light and variable tonight with a bit of a southern component through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US through the forecast period. This will allow for a continuation of onshore flow. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the start of next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 77 54 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 78 55 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 77 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 75 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 74 54 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 76 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF