Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
160 FXUS64 KLIX 032013 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 313 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A weak surface front/trough still resides over the northern Gulf just south of the coast. A very weak and diffuse surface low also resides along this boundary, which helped spark some marine convection early this morning. Much of this has dissipated as the diurnal cycle swings back to landbased zones this afternoon. Being on the western periphery of this feature or behind the trough/front, convection has been limited today and should continue to be for much of the CWFA. The best potential for afternoon convection will be across the MS Gulf Coast and coastal areas of southeast Louisiana. Dry air will simply limit vertical growth of convection across southwest MS and generally locations west of I55. Though a rogue shower or storm still cannot be fully ruled out. Going into tonight and especially during the day on Monday an H5 weakness will sharpen as an impulse moves downstream from the Red River Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. With the surface lift just to our southeast and some weak upper level support, diurnally driven convection will remain possible again mostly east of I55. Again, similar to today, being on the western periphery of the surface features as well as positioned in dry northwest flow, the higher rain chances will remain east. With the weaker upper heights and slightly lower thicknesses, temperatures should fall within the "normal" range for early August...generally lower 90s. However, if cloudiness hangs around this may be a bit on the bullish side, which may be great news for those looking for a slight break in the recent extreme heat. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Going into midweek the region will remain under an H5 weakness over the MS River Valley. A weak low or surface trough will remain in place across the northern Gulf, which will basically allow a continuation of the short term pattern into the long term. Diurnally driven convection will be possible each day, enhanced by the upper weakness and surface features. The best chances through Wednesday will continue to be east of I55. However, properly timed impulse within the northerly or northwester flow aloft may help generate more numerous convection even across the drier locations west of I55. Timing of convection will really be a player in terms of the temperatures through the upcoming week. However, it`s a safe bet to go with consensus guidance, which again keeps temperatures around climo. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Outside of convection (and perhaps some limited VIS for MCB Monday morning) VFR conditions are expected for the local terminals. As for convection, best potential will be for NEW, MSY, HUM, GPT...generally terminals further east and south. Winds through the period should continue to remain light and variable through the cycle outside of thunderstorms. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Overnight and early morning convection will remain possible through the start of the new workweek. This should be the primary focus as winds and seas around any convection may be locally higher. In the light surface flow, waterspouts may be possible, especially any updraft that can become rooted into a surface boundary. A broad surface low and upper level weakness may assist in convective development diurnally each night through much of the upcoming week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 91 71 91 / 0 20 20 50 BTR 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 20 50 ASD 72 92 72 91 / 20 50 40 80 MSY 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 40 80 GPT 75 91 74 91 / 40 60 60 80 PQL 73 90 72 89 / 40 70 70 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF