Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
032 FXUS64 KLIX 091045 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 545 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 506 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 - Less coverage in daily afternoon rain/storm chances through this work week. However, rain chances pick up toward the weekend. - Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Relatively normal summer-like pattern has set up with a diurnal dominance to sh/ts coverage. Soundings continue to show weak subsidence inversions sitting just above and below the 900mb level. Dew pt numbers will only fall a few degrees today through much of the week. All variables are available for sh/ts to develop but will do so where the cap strength is weakest or heating and bouancy becomes strongest, or both. For today, this looks to be in and near the Atchafalaya Basin into BTR then eastward. The eastward extent from the Atchafalaya is the questionable area since the cap is slightly stronger over that area, but we will still carry a 20% precip number there with much higher values around the Atchafalaya Basin. For most areas, these weak sub inversions will help a bit with keeping the heat down just a bit. As the boundary layer mixes out during the day, moisture follows as well. Clouds develop around 3kft with heating and the clouds(moisture) is carried northward on transport winds. This mixing and transport of moisture is key in keeping heat under control and in the 90s until Fri. Fri is when a stronger cap develops causing most of this moisture to lock in the boundary along with heating during the day, this will lead to higher heat index values around 105. Still not the baking type heat that comes with July/August but still warm. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Going into the upcoming weekend, generally an H5 ridge will continue to remain over the northern Gulf. This feature will advocate for higher daytime temperatures and a bit more suppressed QPF/POPs. Just upstream over the midsouth region a surface cold front will try to move southward with a series of upper level impulses spreading east over top the northern periphery of the ridge over the Gulf. Eventually, the ridge retrogrades a bit over Texas allowing for the front to settle a bit closer to our region going into Sunday. This would indicate higher rain chances, especially during the diurnal cycle and timing of an upper impulse. That said, The pattern looks somewhat like a MCS pattern as the upper flow becomes west/west northwesterly, not to mention climo. By early next week a rather robust trough begins to dig over the central states. This will finally grab the meandering front and push it into our CWFA. From this point onward, globals have the front basically stalled over our region through the end of the cycle, which could signal additional heavy rainfall. Also, temperatures on Monday highlight the upward tick in POPs early next week as we drop out of the lower to mid 90s back into the mid and upper 80s. Speaking of temperatures, heat index values are likely to climb into the lower to mid 100s this weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 VFR conditions through this cycle for most terminals. There is a possibility of MVFR or even tempo IFR for northern most terminals such as MCB and BTR around sunrise Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 For the remainder of this week, winds will remain ESE to SE at 10 to 15 knots. Low numbers of showers and storms will remain as well but winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE