586
FXUS64 KLIX 230923
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
323 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The sfc low over the NW gulf will move along the coast today with
plenty of showers moving through well in advance of the low. The
threat of lightning is still valid but also still low around 20%
around and south of Lake Pontchartrain building to 30% at the coast.
The best timing of these probs will be from around noon through 6p
today. Bascially, south shore areas will have the highest
probability out of the entire CWA and isolated lightning is not out
of the question. A steady light to moderate rain will move through
the whole day today. The heaviest activity should end around or just
after 10p tonight. But there will be some lingering light
rain/mist/fog hanging around into Monday morning. Even this should
get pushed out by late Monday morning. Most areas should see
rainfall tallies of 1 to 2 inches and higher toward the coast. No
severe wx with this one, but it will be on the cool side with temps
not moving much through the day today. As this moves out Monday,
conditions should improve but this will set the area up for the
possibility of dense fog Monday night/Tue morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A warming trend will be in full swing Monday finally reaching the
mid 70s by Wed. Another cold front may move through Thu with some
cloudy skies and at best maybe a sprinkle or two but mainly cooling
us back into the 60s for highs. No real arctic blast with this one.
Fri through the weekend look to fairly typical late winter
conditions for this area which is quite nice with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s and 50s. No rain expected over the weekend
either.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Cigs will start off in MVFR for most sites but will slowly fall into
IFR levels starting around sunrise today. All terminals should be in
IFR by late morning or noon. Prevailing conditions will remain SHRA
BR with a low probability of IFR vis with the heaviest showers. The
highest probs for lightning will be BTR, MSY, NEW but only isolated
and will not be enough of a probability to show in any taf set.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Winds will remain out of the E today as a sfc low moves through the
northern gulf. As the low moves through the outer coastal waters,
winds will shift all around the compass late today into tonight. The
low will move SE tonight bringing the sh/ts with it away from the
northern gulf by Mon. Winds will remain 20 to 25kt with gusts to
30kt. There will be some gusts greater than gale force but this will
mainly be associated with numerous storms. NE winds around 20kt will
move in as the low moves SE tonight and remain through much of
Monday before easing late Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will
move into the area causing winds to become light and variable late
Tue into Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  43  65  42 /  90  50   0   0
BTR  54  47  68  45 / 100  40   0   0
ASD  56  47  68  47 / 100  60  10   0
MSY  59  50  65  50 / 100  50  10   0
GPT  53  47  65  47 / 100  70  10   0
PQL  56  47  69  46 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ552-555-570-
     572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE