681
FXUS64 KLIX 221739
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Upper ridging remains off the Florida East Coast. A weak southern
stream shortwave will be departing the local area in the next few
hours. Northern stream shortwaves remain near the US-Canada
border. This leaves the local area in generally a zonal or west-
southwest mid-level flow. At the surface, the main cold or
stationary front remains near a Nashville to Shreveport line, but
based on surface winds and dew points, there may be a weak surface
boundary near Interstate 10. Isolated light rain showers were
noted on radar over portions of southern Mississippi and off the
Mississippi coast. Early morning temperatures were generally in
the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a touch cooler than this time
yesterday.

Main concerns for the next 36 hours will be similar to yesterday,
the potential for strong thunderstorms and/or very heavy
rainfall. Aside from the departing shortwave this morning, there
looks to be a weak shortwave over west Texas that could be a player
over the next day or two. Precipitable water values that were
near 1.7 inches last evening should exhibit some drying this
morning, similar to the 1.15 inch precipitable water at LCH last
evening, and forecast soundings reflect this, at least for most of
the area. However, GFS and HRRR forecast soundings do indicate
the area near and south of Interstate 10 may see precipitable
water values remain around 1.6 inches, which is near the 90th
percentile climatologically. Expect less areal coverage today than
yesterday, but what does develop will continue to have the
potential for very heavy rainfall, as weak low level wind fields
are likely to keep cell movements 10 mph or less. Considered a
Flood Watch along the Interstate 10 corridor for today, but the
areal coverage of heavy rain was rather limited yesterday and is
expected to remain so today. Cannot rule out one or two strong to
severe storms today, but shear remains very weak on forecast
soundings.

Shortwave energy over Texas could move across the area on
Wednesday with the potential for another round of showers/storms
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Moisture and shear
profiles remain relatively similar to those expected this
afternoon, so would expect similar general areal coverages.

Timing of convective initiation will be the deciding factor on
high temperatures the next couple of days, but with forecast
soundings showing convective temperatures in the lower 80s, that
should be a guideline for a starting point. The forecast soundings
indicate some possibility for highs a couple degrees warmer on
Wednesday than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Medium range models indicate ridging off the Florida coast will
gradually break down over the next several days, with ridging
building over the Great Plains. The GFS operational solution does
this somewhat quicker than the ECMWF operational. The GFS
operational is pretty much dry after tomorrow, while the ECMWF
would continue potential for convection through at least Thursday,
and perhaps as long as Friday across northern sections. The NBM
numbers reflect the ECMWF solution to a great extent, but if it
appears the GFS becomes more favored, we`ll have to dry out the
forecast somewhat. A drier solution would also favor warmer high
temperatures, with readings near 90 possible in some areas over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Convective activity is currently more suppressed at this time than
it was yesterday with the only convective cells currently near
MSY. Have VCTS wording to reflect the risk of nearby thunderstorm
activity at MSY through 19z. Otherwise, probabilities of
convection are too low to mention in the forecast through the
afternoon and early evening hours at the remainder of the
terminals. If a storm develops near a terminal, a short term
update will be made. Tonight, another round of low stratus and fog
will develop as a inversion strengthens. This will lead to a
period of IFR conditions at all of the terminals, generally
between 08z and 14z. After 14z, increasing boundary layer mixing
will allow the fog to clear and ceilings to lift into MVFR range.
PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Brief period of very low conditions will improve over the next
couple of hours to at least MVFR, with VFR beyond 18z. TSRA should
not be as numerous today as it was yesterday, with most
dissipating prior to 00z Wednesday. Will use PROB30 to handle
convection at most terminals. MVFR to IFR conditions will return
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Main concerns over the next several days will be for
thunderstorms, as pressure gradients remain too weak to support
Small Craft Advisory conditions. Even the threat of thunderstorms
should diminish toward the end of the week, providing conditions
favorable for maritime operations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  82  64  85 /  30  30  10  40
BTR  66  85  67  86 /  30  40  10  40
ASD  66  84  66  84 /  30  10  10  20
MSY  69  83  69  84 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  67  81  67  81 /  20  20   0  20
PQL  65  83  64  83 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW