232
FXUS64 KLIX 101845
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1245 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- An Arctic high pressure system will bring temperatures to near
  or below freezing on tonight into tomorrow morning across much
  of the area. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of the
  outlook area with the exception of the immediate southshore of
  Lake Pontchartrain and the immediate SELA coast.

- Higher winds (20-30kt) and seas (7-14ft) hazardous to small
  crafts will occur through this evening. Small craft advisories
  remain in effect.

- A combination of gusty winds up to 20-25mph and RH between 25-30
  percent will lead to a critical fire weather risk today. Outdoor
  burning is NOT recommended and please be mindful of any burn
  bans that are in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The biggest story in the short term period will be the first
freeze of the Fall season impacting much of the area tonight. This
freeze is tied into a strong thermal trough moving into the area
today and tonight on the back of deep layer northwest flow. This
thermal trough has limited warming today with highs only rising
into the upper 40s and lower 50s. This low starting point will
quickly translate into rapid cooling this evening as a surface
high pressure system becomes directly centered over the region.
Winds will quickly fall off after sunset and a strong surface
based temperature inversion will form as radiational cooling takes
hold. Temperatures will drop between 15 and 25 degrees overnight,
and the strongest cooling will occur over more inland areas and
natural drainages like the Pascagoula and Pearl River valleys.
This will result in overnight lows falling below freezing across
the vast majority of the region with only the southshore of Lake
Pontchartrain and the immediate Louisiana coast remaining above
freezing. Given these conditions, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to
a Freeze Warning for tonight.

Once we get past tonight, a gradual warming pattern will develop
as the thermal trough axis shifts to the east and the surface high
also becomes more centered over the Southeast and eastern Gulf.
Winds will turn more southerly and warmer air will begin to advect
into the region. Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s tomorrow and further warming back to more average
readings in the low to mid 70s is expected on Wednesday. The
airmass will remain fairly dry, so a large diurnal range is
expected. This will lead to overnight lows falling back into the
upper 30s in the river drainages and the 40s across the rest of
the area Tuesday night. By Wednesday night, enough low level
moisture will feed into the area to keep lows closer to average in
the upper 40s and 50s. The dry and stable airmass in place will
also keep skies clear through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Thursday and Friday will see continued dry and stable conditions
as a strong upper level ridge axis builds over the region from the
west. Although the low levels will see continued onshore flow and
a gradual increase in instability, a strong mid-level capping
inversion will limit cloud development and keep any rain chances
at bay. The increasing upper level subsidence will also contribute
to warming temperatures and afternoon highs should easily climb
into the mid to upper 70s each day. These values are around 5
degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Overnight
temperatures will also be slightly warmer than average with lows
only dipping into the 50s and even some lower 60s along the coast
on Thursday and Friday nights as increasing low level moisture
pushes dewpoints into the 50s. Given the lighter winds in place
and increasing negative bouyancy aloft, conditions look favorable
for some radiation fog to form both Thursday and Friday night over
more inland areas of the CWA.

Forecast confidence on the timing of the next storm system to
impact the area over the weekend has increased this morning as
long range model guidance comes into somewhat better agreement.
Saturday will be the drier of the two days as the influence of the
upper level ridge still remains in place. Although the area will
be on the western side of the ridge and some difluent flow aloft
will start to take hold by the afternoon and evening hours, the
very dry air in the mid and upper levels will greatly limit rain
chances much of the day. At best, areas along the Atchafalaya
Basin where the influence of the ridge is weakest will have the
best chance of rain on Saturday as slightly deeper moisture is
able to move in by the afternoon hours. Given the strong capping
inversion aloft, any rain will come in the form of light showers
as updraft development is constrained. Off and on shower activity
will persist through Saturday night, but any risk of thunderstorms
will remain limited as the mid-levels remain very dry. PoP of 20
to 30 percent is in place for Saturday night to reflect this risk
of shower activity. Temperatures will also continue to warm as
onshore flow persists with highs climbing back into the upper 70s
and overnight lows only dipping into the upper 50s and low to mid
60s.

Sunday will be the most unsettled day in the long term period as a
southern stream upper level low begins to move into Texas. A broad
area of increasing upper level omega and overall forcing will
overspread the central Gulf Coast and PWATS will climb to near the
75th percentile for mid-November. The combination of increased
lift and more favorable thermodynamics will allow for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms to develop by Sunday afternoon.
However, the best forcing and thermodynamic support now looks to
be delayed until Sunday night and Monday or just beyond our
forecast window. Have opted to stick with the NBM output in this
period, and this results in PoP of 30 to 40 percent for Sunday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild on the back of a
persistent onshore flow with highs easily climbing back into the
upper 70s. As we move through the week, forecast confidence in the
overall evolution of this southern stream system moving out of the
Four Corners will increase. It is far too early to determine any
severe weather threat given the spatial and temporal differences
between the model solutions currently.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Gusty north winds of 15 to 20 knots are the primary concern for
aviators today at all of the terminals. These gusty winds will
persist through 00z before dropping below 10 knots tonight at most
of the terminals. However, MSY and NEW will see the gusty winds
persist into the overnight hours as thermal mixing over the warmer
lake waters allows for continued downward transport of stronger
winds aloft. These winds will finally ease around 10 to 11z
tomorrow as a surface high becomes centered directly over the
area. Outside of the gusty winds, VFR conditions will be the rule.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Conditions will continue to slowly improve through the afternoon
and evening hours as a strong surface high becomes more centered
over the waters. However, small craft advisory conditions with
winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 7 to 12 feet will persist over
the waters through evening hours. By tomorrow morning, winds will
decrease below 10 knots and seas will begin to decrease as the
influence of the high takes hold. This high will then linger over
the region through the end of the week allowing for continued
light winds and calmer seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  26  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  30  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  25  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  39  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  54  30  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  24  58  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG