Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
063 FXUS64 KLIX 130544 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1144 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Warming trend this week. Above normal temperatures expected through the start of next week. - Tonight, tomorrow night, and Friday night, some patchy dense fog could develop. Remember to slow down and use your low beam headlights if you encounter dense fog while driving. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 The warming trend has started across the CWFA. Weak onshore flow has developed and upper level heights are increasing as an upper level ridge takes shape across the western Gulf. Above average temperatures are expected through the short term period. Outside of temperatures, the chances for fog are increasing. Stat guidance has come down and bounced slightly back over the last run or two. SREF probs went from 10 percent up to near 30 percent for 1 sm fog north of I10/12 corridor, especially southwest MS. Think the consensus VIS guidance is in pretty good shape with areas of fog around sunrise as clear conditions and light low level flow allow for proper radiation. There is a bit better signal going into Friday morning. Otherwise, not much else to discuss in the short term. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Dry conditions are expected to continue into the weekend. Globals have continued to back off on any rain chances, especially as upper level ridging and surface high pressure remain in place across the region leading to a mostly dry column...outside of just off the deck. Above average temperatures will likely continue through the weekend and well into the start of next week with a continuation of the upper ridging over the Gulf. Models continue to hold up a frontal boundary to our north as we reside on the northwest periphery of the H5 ridge. This will keep the front from making any additional forward progress toward our region. Again, the region stays mostly dry as much of the upper support will reside over the Red River Valley and struggle to amplify southeast toward our region thanks to the ridge situated over the Gulf. So, again main story is mostly dry and warm for this time of year with many of us reaching the 80s for some/most of the medium range during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions into the overnight hours. There is a signal for fog overnight for MCB, BTR, HDC, and HUM, however, the signal is a bit weaker so adjusted VIS values to reflect these change. MVFR?IFR is still likely for those terminals regardless. Otherwise, once sun rises on Thursday, fog should mix out by around 14z with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Winds will remain mostly southerly and light through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Southeast US through the period. This will allow winds to become onshore. Overall, the flow should remain light with favorable winds and seas through the weekend and into the start of next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 51 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 75 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 74 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 74 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 71 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF