365
FXUS64 KLIX 082007
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
207 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - A cold front has moved through the area, leaving cold air and
   gusty winds in its wake. The coldest morning will be tonight
   and Tuesday morning.

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected to continue into at least
   Monday evening before conditions improve on Tuesday.

 - Little, if any, rainfall through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Cold air has been filtering in across the area this afternoon in
the wake of a cold front that passed just after midnight last
night. Because of this and the cloud cover that has been observed
all day, temps have struggled to get to the mid-50s this
afternoon. The cold air advection is expected to slack off around
or just after midnight tonight as a surface high pressure filters
into the area. This will set us up for a radiational cooling
night on top of the colder airmass. However, high-resolution
short-range models show that low-level clouds are going to stick
around throughout the night tonight. Cloud cover during a
radiational cooling night will lead to warmer temps than expected,
so the NBM 75th and 90th percentile were blended with the
deterministic NBM to raise the minimum temps. This keeps freezing
temps confined to isolated areas in southwest MS and the Pearl
River Basin. Meanwhile, most other places across the area should
stay in the mid to upper 30s tonight.

The surface high is expected to continue sliding east during the
day tomorrow and, due to that, will get onshore return flow across
the area. Granite, this will only warm us up by a few degrees, but
at least this will be the start of a warming trend heading into
the middle of the week. Although we start getting onshore flow,
our PW will be right at the 10th percentile for this time of year,
so we will remain dry during the day tomorrow under the surface
high and dry air aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The previously mentioned surface high pressure is expected to
continue shifting eastward throughout the day on Wednesday.
Because of the continued onshore flow from this, we will warm up
another 10 or so degrees from Tuesday as high temps are expected
to get into the mid to upper 60s across the area.

Troughing across the mid MS valley is expected to break down that
surface high late Wednesday evening. Models start to diverge here
in the strength of the trough, therefore, they also disagree on
the strength of the front itself. Regardless, it seem as though
temps will drop by at least a few degrees on Thursday. This front
will likely not have any rain associated with it as upper-level
dry air hangs around and PW remains right at or just under the
median for that time of year. So, just mainly expect a slight drop
in temperature and dew point when the front passes through on
Wednesday evening.

Model spread in the NBM and ensemble guidance really picks up
towards the end of the week and into this weekend. The differences
start in the strength and placement of the trough ejecting across
the northeast CONUS. This leads to more differencing in the
trailing ridging across the middle of the country and troughing
coming onshore the western CONUS. Because of the amount of
differences, opted to maintain NBM for the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

MVFR ceilings have hung around longer than expected this
afternoon, but satellite has shown that this deck has started to
break up recently. This deck is suppose to scatter out as get get
further into this afternoon and evening. Once this scatters out,
expect conditions to remain VFR and impact-free as the winds
continue to relax in response to a surface high filtering into the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Cold air in the wake of a strong cold front will produce hazardous
conditions over the waters through the daytime and evening hours
today before gradually subsiding. High pressure moving into the
coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday will produce more favorable
marine conditions. The next frontal system to affect the coastal
waters will likely move through around Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  33  57  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  34  59  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  32  59  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  59  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  35  56  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  32  59  38  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ